{ "number": 859, "headline": "February 4, 2026 Wednesday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Pattern change will bring Winter back to the Western U.S. with plenty of snow next week", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-05", "published": "2026-02-05T01:56:21.345000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 859: Good Evening! Quiet weather week \u2014 well deserved after a rough few weeks. However, very cold Canadian Arctic air is returning across the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend. Day 35 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader X @weatherzarr)

Since it\u2019s rather quiet, I thought I\u2019d post some weather model \u201cfantasy land\u201d imagery to show that winter is not over by a long shot just because we\u2019ll have a huge warm up across much of the Lower 48 including the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by middle of next week. That means it\u2019s cold at least for another 5-7 days, and then we\u2019ll get the train on the tracks for a thaw east of the Mississippi.

ECMWF HRES 15-days Long Range Snowfall has a LOT of Western U.S. snowfall with atmospheric rivers guided by a strong jet stream into WA/OR and California. This is exciting news for snow starved ski resort \u2014 and load up the snowpack into the back half of winter.

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From the 12z cycle, a \u201cMiller-B\u201d type storm system at Day 8 forms and tracks northeast to be a perfect \u201cblizzard\u201d to dump 2-3\" feet on the big cities for Valentine\u2019s Day weekend.

Of course, I know \u2014 and you know \u2014 this is just one scenario out of hundreds/thousands that will be generated over the coming days, but it\u2019s the only show in town, so we\u2019ll marvel at the computer generated extreme weather event. If this was within 7-days rather than 8 or 9, then we could get more excited. Worth keeping an eye on the overall pattern, however, with this southern stream storm track.

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Loaded \u201cjet stream\u201d over the Ohio River Valley end of next week would favor storm formation on the southern periphery, and then generate a Nor\u2019easter

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ECMWF 18z Temperature Anomaly | Next 6-days

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Upper-Level \u201cTropospheric Polar Vortex\u201d Pattern for Saturday morning

The trough is not as intense as predicted over past few days, but still quite significant. The lack of a strong surface cyclone limited the scale of the trough \u2014 now rather elongated.

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its third year. To receive daily new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. All content is generated by the author!

Moisture Transport Next 10-days | Integrated Vapor Transport

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European 6-day Precipitation Type and Intensity

Quite a busy pattern with multiple little storms crossing into the Med. and continuing onward with plenty of moisture from the Atlantic.

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Spain and Portugal will continue to see major rainfall \u2026 but also through the Mediterranean for Italy, Greece, and Turkey.

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Snow in Japan \u2014> cool animation \u2014> watch it a few times

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The cold air descends south out of Russia and crosses the Sea of Japan. Normally this would be just snow on the windward side and Tokyo escapes any major winter precipitation. Then, this fast moving frontal wave comes out of China and taps into the cold air just enough to lay down some snow for Tokyo.

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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West Coast USA Zoom | Next 6-days

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Very nice atmospheric river does make it into the Pacific Northwest through Monday out of the Southwest. Then, the pattern shifts to a trough and the moisture will come out of the Northwest = much colder air mass = huge snowfall on the way.

East Coast USA Zoom | Next 6-days

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More cold Canadian Arctic air for the Northeast as storm systems form/track well offshore.

Tomorrow morning\u2019s weather \u2014> This evening\u2019s Frontal Boundaries

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Rain and some mix/snow will move through North Carolinas with minimal accumulations this evening into Wednesday morning. A cold front through the Southeast will have all rain (thankfully) but colder air behind it \u2014 yet again!

HRRR Simulated Radar Next 48-hours

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Could see some snowflakes east of Atlanta through Thursday morning but no accumulations or impacts expected. The front crosses central Florida by morning.

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NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

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Snowfall from Clipper System could add another 3\u201d-5\u201d across Great Lakes into Ohio and Pennsylvania, providing a fresh blanket for the arrival of the cold Canadian Arctic air mass.

NWS NDFD Precipitation (QPF) next 3-days

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RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 8:00 PM ET

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Avg Lower 48 temperature was 40.1\u00b0F \u2014 141 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 8:00 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 2.5\u00b0F

Low Temperatures next 8-days

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NYC will have highs in the mid-30s next week have this next cold spell.

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Low Temperatures Thursday

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200 million below freezing \u2014 average of 27.6\u00b0F

High Temperatures Thursday

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113 million stay below freezing during day \u2026 continued very warm in the Southwest including Southern California. 80s also possible up to Monterey Bay. Golf in Scottsdale starts tomorrow \u2014 very windy (gusts > 40 mph out of east) during the morning, and temperatures cranking up into the 80s (bone dry).

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Highs in the 20s in the Great Lakes and into New England.

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60s across the Plains into Montana!

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It will be warmer in Billings, Montana (65\u00b0F) than Orlando, Florida (61\u00b0F) Thursday

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Low Temperatures Friday

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Saturday Low Temperatures

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Sunday Low Temperatures

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Temperatures could really crater Sunday morning \u2026 we\u2019ll see how these numbers trend in the models tomorrow.

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ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Pacific moisture from atmospheric rivers on the horizon into weekend. Two blasts of cold/dry Canadian air east of the Mississippi again make it through South Florida.

Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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Very significant warming trend for the central U.S. into Days 6-10, and then pushes Eastward by shutting the door on the Northwest Flow out of Arctic.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 12-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -40\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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ECMWF AIFS 15-day Snowfall | Long Range Look

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Huge Western Snowfall Returns! Also some potential storms in the Great Lakes and Northeast past Day 10, so winter is NOT over.

Long Range Snowfall | EPS 12z \u2014 Next 15-days Ensemble Median

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Probability of at least 1\u201d snowfall next 15-days

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Probability of at least 6\u201d snowfall next 15-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

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5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 4 - Feb 8

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 9 - Feb 13

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Still can\u2019t shake the extreme cold in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast + Florida.

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 14 - Feb 18

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Much warmer across the Central and Eastern U.S. as California and the West Coast goes negative anomaly \u2014 and strongly so.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Since it\u2019s rather quiet, I thought I\u2019d post some weather model \u201cfantasy land\u201d imagery to show that winter is not over by a long shot just because we\u2019ll have a huge warm up across much of the Lower 48 including the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by middle of next week. That means it\u2019s cold at least for another 5-7 days, and then we\u2019ll get the train on the tracks for a thaw east of the Mississippi.

ECMWF HRES 15-days Long Range Snowfall has a LOT of Western U.S. snowfall with atmospheric rivers guided by a strong jet stream into WA/OR and California. This is exciting news for snow starved ski resort \u2014 and load up the snowpack into the back half of winter.

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