{ "number": 857, "headline": "February 2, 2026 Monday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Major Arctic blast to settle across Great Lakes and Northeast into Weekend", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-03", "published": "2026-02-03T01:41:59.972000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 857: Good Evening and Happy Groundhog Day! A lot warmer today! Thank you to visitors and more new subscribers for your generous support keeps Weather Trader quickly growing. As a non-politics Substack, our readership or \u201cmap viewing\u201d is quite popular! Onward and upward! Day 33 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader X @weatherzarr)

Groundhog Day! February 2, 2026

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Phil saw his shadow at the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club at Gobbler\u2019s Knob in western Pennsylvania = 6 more weeks of winter! (Whether you like it or not!)

Definitely another 8-10 days of winter in the Northeast U.S. with an Arctic blast that seems to \u201csettle in\u201d for a bit longer that initially thought. Well below average temperatures continue and the cold intensifies Saturday and Sunday.

Well above normal temperatures dominate west of the Mississippi with warm weather expected in Santa Clara for Super Bowl LX on Sunday (no precipitation, temps in the 60s)

ECMWF 18z Temperature Anomaly | Next 6-days

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Moisture Transport Next 10-days | IVT

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Observed / Analysis of Snowfall Last 3-days

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As forecast, we saw most snowfall along and near the North Carolina coastline

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Day 6 (Sunday 18z) depiction of the coastal storm by ECMWF 18z

West Coast USA Zoom | Next 6-days

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Very nice atmospheric river does make it into the Pacific Northwest and perhaps northern California by Sunday. That would be opportunity for welcome precipitation (after the Super Bowl) and snowfall at higher elevations.

East Coast USA Zoom | Next 6-days

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This potential \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d is associated with a very intense and sharp trough and thickness anomaly connected to the main PV up in Arctic Canada.

NOAA GFS Dynamic Tropopause Next 3-6 days

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This is an excellent diagnostic to show the extreme cold of \u201cTropospheric Polar Vortices\u201d or TPVs \u2014 with stratospheric air (cold, dense) punching downward.

Atmospheric Thickness (1000 mb - 500 mb) Next 6-days

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The main TPV splits off the \u201clobe\u201d into the U.S. Northeast and then retrogrades WNW to the edge of the Arctic Ocean in Canada by Sunday \u2014 seeming to leave the playing field for Arctic blasts into next week.

ECMWF 500 mb Temperatures highlight nicely the cold pool splitting off a lobe or trough into the Northeast. The large reservoir of -48\u00b0C air then secludes and heads poleward.

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If you are a first time visitor but not signed up to receive my daily update emails \u2014 please do! There is no A.I. content generation here unless it is a global weather model like AIFS! Will hit 900 updates/posts in mid-March 2026, and 1,000 by June 1, 2026 \u2014 start of hurricane season.

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If your subscription lapsed for whatever reason and want to return at your original rate (50% off) as initial annual member from 2024 & 2025: Link to Come Back your continuing support is appreciated!

HRRR Simulated Radar Next 48-hours

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Weak Clipper System + some rainfall with a frontal boundary through the Southeast \u2014 nothing too exciting.

NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

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Just some minor accumulations with Clipper System over the next few days.

RTMA | Morning Temperature Analysis | 7:45 PM ET

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Avg Lower 48 temperature was 39.6\u00b0F \u2014 144 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 7:45 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 1.9\u00b0F with the coldest anomaly in Florida

Lows next 8-days

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The Arctic air finally retreats by middle of next week across Great Lakes and Northeast! But until then, yikes, it\u2019s going to get really cold.

Low Temperatures Tuesday

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204 million below freezing \u2014 average of 27.1\u00b0F

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Still freezing in Florida Tuesday morning down the peninsula to Everglades!

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High Temperatures Tuesday

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88 million stay below freezing during day \u2026 very warm in the Southwest including Southern California. 70s and 80s \u2026 look at all of those orange/red colors!

Meanwhile back in the Great Lakes and Northeast \u2014 Highs in the 20s.

Low Temperatures Wednesday

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And, we\u2019re down in the single digits again!

Next Weekend | Saturday Low Temperatures

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Next Weekend | Sunday Low Temperatures

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Next Week | Monday Low Temperatures

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ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Pacific moisture from atmospheric rivers on the horizon into weekend as the strong Canadian Arctic trough carves a path through the Northeast but hopefully doesn\u2019t come much further south.

Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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Very significant warming trend for the central U.S. into Days 6-10, and then pushes Eastward by shutting the door on the Northwest Flow out of Arctic \u2014 we\u2019ll see how durable this Pacific warmth will be past mid-February.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 12-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -40\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

The main -45\u00b0C pink air mass is mostly sectioned off and unable to dip out of the Arctic ocean latitude 70\u00b0N \u2014 quite a distance away for Lower 48 impacts into mid-February. We can see the same story in the thickness fields with the gray TPV well north over edge of the Arctic Ocean.

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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ECMWF AIFS 15-day Snowfall | Long Range Look

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Western Snowfall Returns! Also some potential storms in the Great Lakes and Northeast past Day 10, so winter is NOT over.

ECMWF HRES 15-days Long Range Snowfall Also shows the welcome return of snowfall and moisture to the Pacific Northwest and Rockies.

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More Long Range Snowfall | EPS 12z \u2014 Next 15-days Ensemble Median

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Probability of at least 1\u201d snowfall next 15-days

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Probability of at least 6\u201d snowfall next 15-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 2 - Feb 6

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 7 - Feb 11

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 12 - Feb 16

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Much warmer across the Central and Eastern U.S.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Phil saw his shadow at the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club at Gobbler\u2019s Knob in western Pennsylvania = 6 more weeks of winter! (Whether you like it or not!)

Definitely another 8-10 days of winter in the Northeast U.S. with an Arctic blast that seems to \u201csettle in\u201d for a bit longer that initially thought. Well below average temperatures continue and the cold intensifies Saturday and Sunday.

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