{ "number": 856, "headline": "February 1, 2026 Sunday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Quiet weather until next weekend when Northeast suffers yet another Arctic blast", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-02", "published": "2026-02-02T02:37:44.048000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 856: Good Evening \u2014 I wasn\u2019t read for the gusty winds > 55 mph in Atlanta on Saturday, and my power was knocked out all evening. Thankfully, I have a fireplace that kept me cozy and warm. This winter has been brutal.

Thank you to visitors and new subscribers (including Enterprise Class) for your generous support keeps Weather Trader quickly growing. Day 32 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader X @weatherzarr)

We still have another \u201cArctic Blast\u201d coming this next weekend cross the Great Lakes and Northeast. The main reservoir of mid-level super-cold air (-45\u00b0C) in the pink is stationary over Arctic Canada but Pacific shortwave disturbances along the jet stream are able to pull the \u201clobes\u201d southward, but not the whole tropospheric \u201cpolar vortex\u201d suggesting we might be seeing a well-deserved break from the extremely cold air into the second week of February.

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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East Coast USA Zoom | Next 6-days

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This potential storm system is associated with a very intense and sharp trough and thickness anomaly connected to the main PV up in Arctic Canada.

Some Day 6 Maps: Thickness (1000 mb - 500 mb)

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Typical \u201cPV lobe\u201d structure and evolution for a major cold blast. Huge height anomaly (-500 m)

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This would spawn a very large storm system yet again \u2014 not the typical Shapiro-Keyser lifecycle from a frontal wave and rapid intensification, but more of a gyre type development due to rapid height and pressure falls with the main upper-level baroclinic energy w/jet stream.

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Central Pressure would be low but over a large area with multiple centers making predictability difficult.

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Very cold air pours out of Ontario and Quebec into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with temperatures 30\u00b0F to 40\u00b0F below normal \u2014 for February 7th \u2014 and that\u2019s darn cold.

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Evolution of Temperature Anomaly over next 6-days

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Significant western warmth \u2014 above normal at last \u2014 will continue to build and attempt to push eastward after our Weekend Arctic blast

Eastern Europe Extreme Cold

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Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia into Moscow are all seeing brutal cold temperatures well below zero at night \u2026 Kiev in the minus 10s \u00b0F

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Warsaw, Poland down to -7\u00b0F and -9\u00b0F next two mornings, with some thawing later in the week before turn to much colder conditions.

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Europe Lows on Monday morning

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Europe Lows on Tuesday morning

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Europe Lows on Wednesday morning

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By Wed - Thurs the cold pool moves east to Moscow and ECMWF 12z had -19\u00b0F for Thursday\u2019s low. Yikes.

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NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

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Just some minor accumulations with Clipper Systems over the next few days.

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RTMA | Morning Temperature Analysis | 8:00 PM ET

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Avg Lower 48 temperature was 36.2\u00b0F \u2014 182 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 8:00 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly below normal by -1.2\u00b0F

Lows next 8-days

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Low Temperatures Monday

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228 million below freezing \u2014 average of 23.8\u00b0F

Florida could be nearly as cold Monday morning as Sunday.

How cold was Florida this morning? 8 AM ET analysis

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While Miami only dipped to 35\u00b0F that was the coldest February temperatures since the 1950s. Daytona Beach fell to 23\u00b0F also the coldest Feb temp since records started in 1923. This blast was in some places comparable to 1977 and 1989 but the synoptic setup was not perfect for the coldest air to crash through Miami.

High Temperatures Monday

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116 million stay below freezing during day \u2026 quite warm in the Southwest including Southern California. 60s and low-70s

Low Temperatures Tuesday

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Next Weekend | Saturday Low Temperatures

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Next Weekend | Sunday Low Temperatures

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ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Pacific moisture from atmospheric rivers might be on the horizon into the weekend as the strong Canadian Arctic trough carves a path through the Northeast.

Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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Significant warming trend for the central U.S. into Days 6-10, and then pushes Eastward by shutting the door on the Northwest Flow out of Arctic \u2014 we\u2019ll see if this comes to fruition. The models have tried to push this Pacific air mass over the Rockies and each time over past few weeks came up empty.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 12-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -40\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

The main -45\u00b0C pink air mass is mostly sectioned off and unable to dip out of the Arctic ocean latitude 70\u00b0N \u2014 quite a distance away for Lower 48 impacts into mid-February.

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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ECMWF AIFS 15-day Snowfall | Long Range Look

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Western Snowfall Returns!

ECMWF HRES 15-days Long Range Snowfall Also shows the welcome return of snowfall and moisture to the Pacific Northwest and Rockies.

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Long Range Snowfall from EPS 12z \u2014 Next 15-days Ensemble Median

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Probability of at least 1\u201d snowfall next 15-days

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Probability of at least 6\u201d snowfall next 15-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 1 - Feb 5

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 6 - Feb 10

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 11 - Feb 15

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Much warmer across the Central and Eastern U.S.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

We still have another \u201cArctic Blast\u201d coming this next weekend cross the Great Lakes and Northeast. The main reservoir of mid-level super-cold air (-45\u00b0C) in the pink is stationary over Arctic Canada but Pacific shortwave disturbances along the jet stream are able to pull the \u201clobes\u201d southward, but not the whole tropospheric \u201cpolar vortex\u201d suggesting we might be seeing a well-deserved break from the extremely cold air into the second week of February.

Weak Clipper system mid-week might bring a dusting of snowfall to the Mid-Atlantic

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