{ "number": 853, "headline": "January 28, 2026 Wednesday Evening Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Blockbuster blizzard with hurricane force winds to lash Carolinas and New England", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-01-29", "published": "2026-01-29T03:18:33.778000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 853: Good Evening. Quick update to get the evening maps into the record for everyone up late (or very early) to see what happened with the models before we get cranking again on busy Thursday.

Thank you to visitors and new subscribers for your support keeps Weather Trader going. Day 28 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader X @weatherzarr)

Bomb Cyclone \u2014 actually a large gyre to with 2 main low pressure centers that undergo a binary interaction within the larger upper-level trough (polar vortex) mid-level environment.

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Truly Massive Cyclone with hurricane force wind gusts over a large area of western Atlantic along and off the East Coast.

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Development of a massive coastal storm \u2014> major impacts for Carolinas into the coastal Mid-Atlantic and New England including Boston

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Massive wind maker \u2014 850 mb winds show the energy \u2014 and likelihood of blizzard conditions along a long swath of the Atlantic coast from South Carolinas to New England. This isn\u2019t wind gusts \u2014 but we can use a 80% factor to get them from this map \u2014 so we may may be talking about hurricane force?

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92 knot wind gusts = 100 mph+ along the North Carolina Outer Banks

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59 knots to 78 knots along the Cape in Mass. \u2014 again threat for hurricane force winds

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Snowfall Amounts from ECMWF IFS 18z | Next 6-days

QPF Precipitation Typed as Snowfall | No worry about freezing rain and sleet/ice

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1.7\u201d to 2.0\u201d of QPF as snowfall would put eastern Mass in the 24\u201d to 36\u201d snowfall category with 15:1 to 18:1 Snow-to-liquid ratios \u2026 even more on Nantucket

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Plenty of QPF across the Carolinas for 6\u201d to 12\u201d interior and maybe 2-feet along Atlantic coast (whoa!)

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Florida: Very light snowfall amounts in the Gulf of Mexico \u2014 but those pixels are there so any moisture < 0.005\u201d might not be indicated. Plenty more snow off Jax.

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Variability in Snowfall Amounts Based Upon Track of Bomb Cyclone

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We use ensembles (here EPS 06z from ECMWF w/51 member) to show the median or the rest of the solution distribution at every grid point

The spread is often best shown by the 75th percentile minus 25th (interquartile range) from \u201cbox and whiskers\u201d statistics

75th Percentile \u2014 note this is 10:1 ratios so multiply by 1.5 factor due to cold air

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ECMWF AIFS Snowfall 18z | Next 6-days

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Westward track \u2014 so we have Carolinas getting rocked!

RTMA | Morning Temperature Analysis | 8 AM ET

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9:30 PM ET: Avg Lower 48 temperature was 27.9\u00b0F \u2014 174 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 9:30 PM ET

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9:30 PM ET: Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly below normal by -5.8\u00b0F

NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days | Lake Effect until they freeze over

Also, starting to see the \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d initial stage develop snowfall in North Carolina showing up

Continuing Brutal Arctic Cold | Lows next 8-days

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Low Temperatures Thursday

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242 million below freeze \u2014 only average of 18.8\u00b0F

High Temperatures Thursday

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Still 146 million freezing during day, but warming continues across Texas and the South into the 40s and even 50s with sunshine. Now 37 million above 70\u00b0F with the Southwest nice and mild.

Record Lows for all of Florida Sun + Mon | Hard Freeze | Pipe Busting Cold

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Sunday Morning Lows

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Monday Morning Lows

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ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Moisture surges northward from the Gulf and Atlantic to fuel our \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d this weekend. Bone dry Arctic air mass \u201cflushes\u201d right through South Florida into Sunday with perhaps the perfect angle to bring a freeze quite far south into the Everglades.

Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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Below normal temperatures remain for all 15-days \u2014 decreasing intensity as the ensemble mean washed out \u2014 for the Mid-Atlantic and then Northeast.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 15-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -40\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

Blend of Models | 5 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 5-Days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 28 - Feb 1

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 2 - Feb 6

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 7 - Feb 11

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

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Bomb Cyclone \u2014 actually a large gyre to with 2 main low pressure centers that undergo a binary interaction within the larger upper-level trough (polar vortex) mid-level environment.

Truly Massive Cyclone with hurricane force wind gusts over a large area of western Atlantic along and off the East Coast.

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