{ "number": 850, "headline": "January 26, 2026 Monday Frigid Weather", "standfirst": "Extreme cold intensifies into the weekend with potential of blockbuster blizzard", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-01-27", "published": "2026-01-27T01:52:52.937000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

This is post number 850: Good Evening, thank you to paying + visitors subscribers for your support keeps Weather Trader going. Day 26 of 2026 already! Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

\"\"

If you are a visitor and not signed up to receive my daily update emails \u2014 please do!

Subscribe now

New: there\u2019s an upgrade to \u201cEnterprise Class\u201d subscription that extends to consultation to answer your questions about upcoming weather that may impact your situation, or if I have made your company handsome profits in recent days and want to show your appreciation. This will be expanding in the future at Weather Trader.

If your subscription lapsed for whatever reason and want to come back at your original rate as an initial annual member from 2024-2025: Link to Come Back

Top Story for the next week will be the development of a massive coastal storm that could have major impacts for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

This storm is going to happen, but the track is uncertain, as well as the snowfall and potentially damaging winds from the Carolinas to the I-95 corridor.

\"\"

Through 6-days, the MSLP gets down to 961 mb with an out-to-sea track seemingly underway with considerable coastal snowfall and gusty winds \u2014> potential blizzard conditions from North Carolinas to Boston. Other models are on board with the blizzard, as well but there is no consensus on the track as of yet. Hopefully by tomorrow evening we can make some final determinations.

\"\"

Snowfall Analysis from the Winter Storm Fern

\"\"

Data is still coming in over the next few days so the patchiness will resolve.

\"\"

Already seeing some 20\u201d+ showing up in New England and New York and Pennsylvania

\"\"

And, we will be adding to Boston snow totals this evening!

\"\"

RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 6:30 PM ET

\"\"

Average Lower 48 temperature was 27.8\u00b0F with 206 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 6:30 PM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly below normal by -10.4\u00b0F

Precipitation Type and Intensity Next 6-days (ECMWF 18z)

\"\"

Some rainfall and mountain snow finally returning to the Pacific Northwest.

Otherwise, the rest of the U.S. to the East Coast will be under the firm grip of Arctic high pressure. The storm system develops on the periphery of a \u201cpolar vortex\u201d lobe trough moving through the Southeast. The surface low phases with the jet stream over the warm Gulf Stream and \u201cbombs out\u201d. The full-physics IFS model goes out to 6-days, so we\u2019ll look at the AIFS-18z which extends to 15-days for some idea of potential snowfall if \u2014 and that\u2019s still a big if \u2014 this storm wrecks the breadth of the coastline.

NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days | Lake Effect until they freeze over

AIFS Sunday +6 days | Monster Blizzard at 969 mb

AIFS Snowfall Next 8-days

First Guess at Impacts if Storm Tracks Closer to the Coast

\"\"

Snow to liquid ratios would be well in excess of 10:1 to these totals would be underestimates.

Other Top Story \u2014 Brutal Cold

ECMWF Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

\"\"

Bottom drops out again this weekend with Florida under threat of a devastating freeze with teens and 20s to Interstate 4 and potential for Miami to see low-30s.

Low Temperatures Tuesday | 262 million freezing | Lower 48 avg: 13.6\u00b0F

\"\"

High Temperatures Tuesday

\"\"

Still 143 million freezing during day, but warming underway across Texas and the South into the 40s at least with sunshine. Florida finally gets washed out by the Arctic cold front

Low Temperatures Wednesday

\"\"

Another cold pool dips into the Midwest and Great Lakes with subzero temperatures along I-80 from central Illinois to western PA.

High Temperatures Wednesday

\"\"

Midwest and Great Lakes are frigid with highs still subzero in North Dakota and Minnesota. Teens across Michigan into New England. Brrr.

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

\"\"

Cold front clears south Florida but then moisture returns to fuel our \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d Friday into Saturday. Bone dry Arctic air mass \u201cflushes\u201d right through South Florida into Sunday with perhaps the perfect angle to bring a freeze to the Everglades.

Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 8-days

Incredible animation of the extreme cold compared to normal dumping right down the Florida peninsula unabated.

\"\"

Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

\"\"

Looking into Days 11-15, there is an attempt to bring the westward warmth across the Rockies, but not so much \u2026 we may be seeing the opening up of the entire Arctic \u201cridge bridge\u201d and Polar Vortex cold southward yet again for second 10-days of February.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 15-days

\"\"

Incredible height anomaly associated with the first blizzard AND then a second one plausible off the Northeast at Day 11.

Thickness snows the \u201cfull load\u201d polar vortex (gray) arriving to Hudson Bay on Day 12 (February 7) Where does it go?

\"\"

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 15-days

\"\"

Let\u2019s look at the rest of the 15-days from the 500 mb Temperature to see the evolution of the upper-level \u201cpolar vortex\u201d related circulation pattern over North America.

Yet another \u201cextreme cold\u201d outbreak would be in the cards for Feb 8-11+ and then still no improvement. Talk about Groundhog Day.

The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -40\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

\"\"

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

\"\"

Seems the \u201cblend of models\u201d is hedging on the coastal storm and delivering accumulations. However, too soon to be making snow maps for this particular storm.

ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 8-days

\"\"

The 25th to 75th percentile Interquartile Range is quite large and shifted west over the coast

\"\"

The maximum or \u201cworst ensemble amount\u201d possible is incredible, if the stars align.

\"\"

Probability of some Snowfall (0.1\u201d) in next 15-days

\"\"

Florida snowfall chances are small, but creeping upward to ~10% to 20% over the panhandle, and maybe 10% around Tampa Bay

\"\"

Probability of 1-inch Snowfall in next 15-days

\"\"
\"\"

Probability of 6\u201d of Snowfall next 15-days

\"\"

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 26 - Jan 30

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 31 - Feb 4

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 5 - Feb 9

\"\"

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

If you are a visitor and not signed up to receive my daily update emails \u2014 please do!

If your subscription lapsed for whatever reason and want to come back at your original rate as an initial annual member from 2024-2025: Link to Come Back

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:14Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/january-26-2026-monday-frigid-weather" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "185906081.january-26-2026-monday-frigid-weather", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/january-26-2026-monday-frigid-weather", "slug": "january-26-2026-monday-frigid-weather", "path": "/mp/850/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/850/", "desk_label": "Winter", "digest": "3dd1e607269bea63d0f46bbd40ad20948befa728f814648952df67c70ae15b67" }