{ "number": 848, "headline": "January 23, 2026 Frigid 10-Days Ahead", "standfirst": "Hazardous cold will blast into eastern half of Lower 48 and stay around all next week", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-01-24", "published": "2026-01-24T02:15:31.550000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 848: Good Friday Evening, thank you to paying + visiting subscribers for your continued support keeps this blog progressing without advertising. Day 23 of 2026. Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader) #2 Rising on Substack in Climate Environment Category

Next 48-hours simulated radar \u2014 the storm begins!

Hope everyone in the path of this massive winter storm escapes with minimal impacts, keeps their power, and can enjoy the weekend without worrying about recovery or damage. I won\u2019t exhaustively cover the nuts and bolts \u2014 that\u2019s a job best left for your local weather service office and TV meteorologists. However, I will provide an overview and see what\u2019s coming next week \u2014 hint \u2014 it\u2019s more cold.

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News coverage of ongoing winter weather and Arctic blasts from major outlets. Your support here (and on X) allows me to participate in mainstream (old school) media.

AP: Forecasters warn of a \u2018potentially catastrophic\u2019 storm from Texas to the Carolinas

AP: FACT FOCUS: As cold hits, Trump asks, where\u2019s global warming? Scientists say it\u2019s still here

AP: Meteorologists blame a stretched polar vortex, moisture, lack of sea ice for dangerous winter blast

The Atlantic: Winter Ice Could Humble the United States by Nancy Welecki

Weather Trader is an reader-supported publication w/no advertisement. To receive daily new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber \u2014 consider it investment into further rapid weather innovation

National Weather Service Snowfall Pieced Together from individual offices

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Very nice coordination among the individual offices. This is where the rubber meets the road when the humans behind the keyboards and screens put their expertise and experience to work \u2014 and publish actionable forecasts for the United States.

Zooms \u2014 I think New England will outperform

Ice Accumulations are going to be extremely damaging centered upon NE Louisiana and northern Mississippi with 1.5\u201d maximum accumulations

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Atlanta is under an \u201cice storm\u201d warning but hopefully the \u201cwarm nose\u201d arrives and melts in on Sunday \u2014 I think many locations will be saved from \u201centombment\u201d in ice for a long period by heavy rainfall arriving after the ice with the warm sector of the storm system.

Lower 48 | Low Temperatures Next 8-days

The Blend of Models shows the coldest day at 10.6\u00b0F for national minimum Monday.

Not seeing much improvement through next Sunday with 80-90%+ of the Lower 48 remaining below freezing

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Low Temperatures Saturday | 66 million below zero + 222M below freezing

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Low Temperatures Sunday: 22M below zero, 247M below freezing

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Low Temperatures Monday: 253M below freezing, more again below zero: 46M

10.4\u00b0F Lower 48 average minimum \u2014> except for Florida, it would be much lower.

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Low Temperatures Tuesday: 261M below freezing \u2014 so even more, and 39M below 0\u00b0F \u2026 can\u2019t say there\u2019s much improvement!

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High Temperatures Next 4-days | Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday

Saturday: 186 million remain below freezing and even 9 million below zero.

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Sunday: a little warmer but still 180 million below freezing

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Monday: the same 180 million below freezing. Not quite a thaw yet in much of Texas but getting there

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Tuesday Thaw gets underway but we\u2019ll see how long that lasts!

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Precipitation Type and Intensity Next 6-days (ECMWF 18z)

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And, zoom for Texas

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Southeast \u2014> note the changeover to rain later on Sunday as the warm nose melts the accumulated ice in Atlanta, NE Georgia, into the Carolinas \u2014 yay!

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The temperatures are cool to see animated. Some places may rocket into the 50s and 60s after seeing wintry precipitation earlier in the day on Sunday

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Mid-Atlantic

Because of the cold air in place already, the storm event starts out as snow and then transitions to freezing rain and ice, but there won\u2019t be any rain or \u201cwarm nose\u201d to save folks in Washington D.C. from the \u201centombment\u201d coming with brutal Arctic blast.

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Northeast USA

Much more snowfall especially in NYC and New England. Prepare for 12-18\u201d wide spread before maybe some freezing rain arrives on top in the Big Apple

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Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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Not seeing a sustained warm up or major thaw through early February for the Eastern U.S. as the same old \u201cpolar vortex\u201d pattern remains locked in place.

Next 6-days showing 2 Arctic Blasts w/850 mb Temperature Anomaly

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ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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Thickness \u2014> Showing the Polar Vortex spinning over Ontario and finally eroding by Day 10 \u2014 however, the process may repeat with a PV anomaly coming from the North Pole.

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Multiple polar vortex (PV) anomalies drop out of Canada circulating around the main polar front or cold pool centered over southern Canada (Ontario)

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -40\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 10-days

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The collision of the extremely cold and dry/dense Arctic air will undercut the very moist and warmer air coming from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific subtropics. The result is a battleground of frozen precipitation from freezing rain, sleet, ice, and snow to whatever else you can think of \u2014> massive frozen precipitation mess.

RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 7:45 PM ET

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Average Lower 48 temperature was only 22.6\u00b0F with 175 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 7:45 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly below normal by -14.0\u00b0F \u2014> whoa!

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Boatloads of QPF from this atmospheric river / subtropical atmospheric river

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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And, for this storm event through 5-days, as more snow falls in the Northeast into next weekend

The snow to liquid ratios (SLR) are incorporated directly into the Blend of Models snowfall forecasts \u2014> quite amazing totals in Washington D.C. + Philly \u2014> NYC and Boston. Wow!

Now, let\u2019s quickly mention a Gulf coast potential storm system next weekend!

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Look at that cute little guy \u2014> and it could deliver a foot of snow to almost the Gulf of Mexico \u2014 next Saturday \u2014 only 8-days away!

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Quick Record Keeping of the ECMWF 18z HRES Snowfall Amounts

So we can see how the models performed after

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Freezing Rain \u2014 note this is not accumulated ice (accretion)

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 15-days

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Probability of some Snowfall (0.1\u201d) in next 15-days

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Probability of 1-inch Snowfall in next 15-days

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Probability of 6\u201d of Snowfall next 15-days

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 23 - Jan 27

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 27 - Feb 1

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 2 - Feb 6

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You made it to the end of the blog \u2014 congratulations! A lot more coming in the days ahead. Please sign up / share

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Hope everyone in the path of this massive winter storm escapes with minimal impacts, keeps their power, and can enjoy the weekend without worrying about recovery or damage. I won\u2019t exhaustively cover the nuts and bolts \u2014 that\u2019s a job best left for your local weather service office and TV meteorologists. However, I will provide an overview and see what\u2019s coming next week \u2014 hint \u2014 it\u2019s more cold.

AP: Forecasters warn of a \u2018potentially catastrophic\u2019 storm from Texas to the Carolinas

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