{ "number": 847, "headline": "January 22, 2026 Thursday Massive Storm", "standfirst": "A major multi-day winter storm followed by hazardously cold air", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-01-23", "published": "2026-01-23T03:14:50.895000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 847: Good Evening, thank you to new paying subscribers for your continued support keeps this blog progressing without advertising. Day 22 of 2026. Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Splitting the articles apart in order to focus on the Winter Storm first \u2014 and then worry about temperatures in a follow-up. Today has been busy.

ECMWF Precipitation Intensity \u2014 Next 6-days

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The storm gets going in New Mexico and Texas with moisture from the subtropical Pacific and then another plume once the circulation pulls into the Gulf of Mexico. I\u2019ll focus on Texas, the Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic + Northeast in separate zooms. We don\u2019t expect many major changes with the forecast philosophy as this is a large scale system and \u201cgoing with the flow\u201d

Clashing of the Airmasses | 850 mb Temperature Next 6-days

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The Arctic cold is impressive with almost -40\u00b0C at 850 mb dumping into the Midwest and Great Lakes. The cold pool spreads out but still remains around -25\u00b0C for the next 6-days.

Important to note the yellow coloring ahead of the trough (polar vortex lobe) in Texas. Yellow is > 10\u00b0C or 50\u00b0F and that air is about 1.5 miles up in the boundary layer and moisture laden with 1.5\u201d to 1.8\u201d PWAT.

That warm air rises, condenses, and then easily forms precipitation, which will fall through the Arctic air at the surface \u2014> recipe for sleet and freezing rain.

To the north, heavy snowfall. NWS is a little light on amounts \u2014 I think. My case for higher amounts would come from the cold air + snow to liquid ratios (SLR) of 15:1 or 18:1 and the heavy QPF.

Let\u2019s look at ECMWF 18z Snowfall with the Dynamic SLR

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Quite the jackpot in Oklahoma based upon 1.3\u201d-1.4\u201d QPF precipitation typed as snowfall. I like these colors \u2014 updated the map with them for this storm.

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The snowfall extends almost back to El Paso. Only 0.02\u201d in DFW \u2014 so we worry about snowfall in the Metroplex.

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Moving to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic \u2014> HUGE snowfall QPF

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0.89\u201d in NYC \u2014 1.2\u201d in Boston \u2014 I\u2019d go with 15\u201d to 20\u201d along that corridor. The 1.2\u201d QPF as snow = 12\u201d to 18\u201d (at least) extends back along the Ohio River into Louisville. We\u2019ll see what the National Weather Service says shortly.

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Freezing Rainfall Next 6-days

(note \u2014 some of this is probably misdiagnosed as sleet or ice pellets but not much!)

Not good! This will not all \u201cstick\u201d or encrust trees and power lines, but if only a fraction did, then it\u2019s major / catastrophic damage.

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The wedge in Atlanta is usually underestimated in the models \u2014 but we\u2019re on schedule for ice accumulation at least in northeast Georgia.

Texas Zoom

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Southeast Zoom

Atlanta will be battling the \u201cwedge\u201d of cold air damming against the higher terrain to the ENE

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Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes Zoom | Huge Snowfall Event

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Northeast Zoom | Mainly All Snow for NYC into New England

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RRFS-A Snowfall Amounts \u2014 I want show this model since it\u2019s the flagship replacement from NOAA \u2014 and it\u2019s worthwhile to record what it thinks

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At Monday 06z \u2014 the storm is still going full blast over the Northeast \u2014 meaning the snowfall amounts are still incomplete. The next 06z cycle will have the entire event.

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And the 18z animation from 24-84 hours getting us to Monday 1 AM ET

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ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days | My Favorite Parameter

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The collision of the extremely cold and dry/dense Arctic air will undercut the very moist and warmer air coming from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific subtropics. The result is a battleground of frozen precipitation from freezing rain, sleet, ice, and snow to whatever else you can think of \u2014> massive frozen precipitation mess.

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours | Doesn\u2019t yet include entire NE event

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Ice Accumulation from NWS through 72-hours (Sunday 7 PM ET)

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NWS has severe ice storm warnings for the pile up of > 1\u201d of ice in northern Louisiana to Mississippi perhaps most since the January 1994 \u201cDelta Ice Storm\u201d

Atlanta is included in the ice for now. This would be Sunday until about noon \u2014 so travel into Hartsfield might be mucked up.

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The snow actually happens first in Washington D.C. and then freezing rain comes on top \u2014 which is interesting. This doesn\u2019t include the entire event \u2014 so we\u2019ll update tomorrow for the storm totals.

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Texas \u2014> Louisiana and Mississippi \u2014> Yikes!

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours until Sunday 7 PM ET | Still going

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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That\u2019s a lot of QPF from this subtropical atmospheric river

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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The snow to liquid ratios (SLR) are incorporated directly into the Blend of Models snowfall forecasts \u2014> quite amazing totals in Washington D.C. + Philly \u2014> NYC and Boston. Wow!

Extended Range

ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 15-days

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This is a still an underestimate. There is a very wide distribution of solutions with the Interquartile range (25% to 75%) the same amount as the median = boom or bust & the snow-to-liquid ratio will be upwards of 15:1 or higher in the cold air, so we could double the median snowfall amounts.

IQ (25-75%) range through 15-days

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Ensemble Maximum through 15-days: Boom Potential Dialed up to 100%

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\u2014> this map is a \u201cworst case scenario\u201d

Probability of some Snowfall (0.1\u201d) in next 15-days

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At least 2 ensembles show a dusting along Interstate 4 \u2014 it could happen 4% chance!

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Probability of 1-inch Snowfall in next 15-days

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Probability of 6\u201d and 12\u201d of Snowfall next 15-days

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Splitting the articles apart in order to focus on the Winter Storm first \u2014 and then worry about temperatures in a follow-up. Today has been busy.

The storm gets going in New Mexico and Texas with moisture from the subtropical Pacific and then another plume once the circulation pulls into the Gulf of Mexico. I\u2019ll focus on Texas, the Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic + Northeast in separate zooms. We don\u2019t expect many major changes with the forecast philosophy as this is a large scale system and \u201cgoing with the flow\u201d

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