{ "number": 842, "headline": "January 16, 2026 Friday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Next week the Polar Vortex is fully loaded with potential for extremely cold conditions across Midwest and Great Lakes", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-01-17", "published": "2026-01-17T02:45:09.277000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

This is post number 842: Good Evening, thank you to [more] renewing subscribers for Year 2 and 3 (!) \u2014 your continued support keeps this blog growing without advertising. Day 16 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Thanks for visiting Weather Trader! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Share

Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

\"\"

Amazing period of extreme cold over the next 10-12 days including multiple cold fronts/Arctic blasts into the Eastern U.S. with a massive expansion westward across all of Canada as the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d anchored over Hudson Bay intensifies significantly \u2014 this is a MAJOR and long-lasting cold event.

Zoom Out Globally to see the \u201ccold continents\u201d pattern on steroids with huge cold pools over Eurasia/Siberia and North America. Warm advection + moisture over the North Pacific and North Atlantic further distrup the Arctic polar circulation and align the jet stream to simply transfer cold air from Siberia to North America and keep the pattern locked/blocked or repeating for the next 2-weeks.

\"\"

Lower 48 | Low Temperatures through Next Sunday January 25, 2026

\"\"

Very cold for the next 7-10 days across much of the eastern United States \u2014 with subzero temperatures lurking in the Midwest and Great Lakes, and single digits + teens dipping into Missouri and Tennessee middle of next week. Some moderation toward next weekend across the South.

ECMWF 18z | Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

\"\"

Compared to normal \u2014 we can see in the next 6-days the rotation of Arctic blasts through the Great Lakes connected to a semi-permanent mid-level trough connected to tropospheric polar vortex over Hudson Bay.

Through the next week, conventional cold fronts with Northwesterly flow behind \u2014 brings colder, Canadian continental air largely out of the Hudson Bay region. However, look at Day 6, and see the \u201cloading phase\u201d of a MAJOR tropospheric \u201cpolar vortex\u201d setup for the ages.

Day 6 \u2014 looks ominous on its own, but there\u2019s another \u201cthickness\u201d anomaly coming in from the Arctic ocean associated with a surface high pressure \u2026 that will combine forces with now entrenched PV over Manitoba/Ontario. All systems go for potential of extreme cold. Solutions from the ensembles at 12z were outlandish \u2014 historical.

Sunday \u2014> Florida / South Georgia Snowfall + Northeast Extension

The RRFS-A (next flagship NOAA mesoscale model) largely gave up on the snowfall across the Southeast \u2014 but there is still a narrow band of 1\u201d over Macon \u2014 this is Sunday morning.

However, later Sunday evening \u2014> coastal snowfall event for the Northeast including NYC (lighter amounts) and Boston (2\u201d-4\u201d) \u2014 we\u2019ll see the NWS amounts shortly.

Great Lakes Effect Snow Machine continues at full blast \u2026 3 day snowfall totals:

\"\"

Southeast Snowfall From ECMWF 18z \u2014> most reliable model

\"\"

Still an area of > 1\u201d in South Georgia \u2014 we\u2019ll see how this evolves into the morning forecast cycle. This would be \u201cdaytime\u201d snowfall with dynamic cooling from the precipitation within the cold Arctic air mass, so not the most optimal setup for heavy snowfall. However, if the cooling is underestimated on Sunday, then we could see a surprise dumping.

\"\"

Northeast ECMWF 18z \u2014> Sunday and Monday with coastal snowfall

\"\"

Snowfall Total through 3-days from ECMWF 18z

\"\"

Weather Trader is an reader-supported publication with no advertising. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

\"\"

Amazing sequence of troughs digging into the Great Lakes and Northeast through next 10-days with multiple major Arctic blasts. Ridging across the Western U.S. remains largely intact, too \u2014 we\u2019re in a stuck pattern for the rest of January.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

\"\"

The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -40\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

The Western U.S. and Pacific Northwest ridge is very apparent and firmly entrenched vs. the Hudson Bay / Arctic Canada undulations are dipping southward into the eastern U.S. = cold. The reservoir of cold air remains largely intact through 10-days centered over Ontario/Quebec. Amazing to see the -40\u00b0C to -45\u00b0C contours dipping into the Great Lakes and Northeast \u2014> risk for extreme cold.

HRRR Next 48-hours Radar | Through Saturday 1 PM ET

\"\"

ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days | My Favorite Parameter

\"\"

Multiple Arctic blasts crash out of Canada into the Lower 48 \u2014 reaching the Gulf Coast and draining through Florida. Very cold period starting \u2014 underway east of the Rockies.

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type and Intensity | Next 6-days

\"\"

Southeast \u2014> East Coast moisture plume but misses phasing

\"\"

Europe Storm Systems next 6-days

\"\"

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

\"\"

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

\"\"
\"\"
\"\"
\"\"

RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 8:00 PM ET

\"\"

Average Lower 48 temperature was 35.0\u00b0F with 108 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 8:00 PM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly below normal by -0.8\u00b0F

Saturday Morning Low Temperatures

\"\"

174 million below freezing \u2014 nationwide average of 23.5\u00b0F

Saturday High Temperatures

\"\"

Nationwide average of 39.4\u00b0F

Sunday Low Temperatures

\"\"

Frigid with 224 million at/below freezing

Sunday High Temperatures

\"\"

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

\"\"

Blend of Models v5.0 | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

\"\"

ECMWF 18z | Snowfall Next 6-days

\"\"

European Winter | Snowfall Next 6-days

\"\"

ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 15-days

\"\"

Probability of 0.1-inch or more Snowfall in the next 6-days [18z]

\"\"

50-75% chance of snowfall > 0.1\u201d (accumulations) from Florida panhandle through South Georgia and up into the Carolinas

Probability of 1-inch or more Snowfall in the next 3-days [18z]

\"\"
\"\"

Probability of 6-inch or more Snowfall in the next 15-days

\"\"

Ensemble Median Snowfall for Europe Next 15-days

\"\"

Europe Temperature Anomaly | Week 1 and Week 2

\"\"
\"\"

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

\"\"

The back half of January will see much below normal temperatures east of the Rockies and across all of Canada.

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 16 - Jan 20

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 21 - Jan 25

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 26 - Jan 30

\"\"

Leave a comment

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Thanks for visiting Weather Trader! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Amazing period of extreme cold over the next 10-12 days including multiple cold fronts/Arctic blasts into the Eastern U.S. with a massive expansion westward across all of Canada as the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d anchored over Hudson Bay intensifies significantly \u2014 this is a MAJOR and long-lasting cold event.

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:14Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/january-16-2026-friday-winter-weather" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "184830348.january-16-2026-friday-winter-weather", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/january-16-2026-friday-winter-weather", "slug": "january-16-2026-friday-winter-weather", "path": "/mp/842/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/842/", "desk_label": "Winter", "digest": "8cb344f09c55b81399896b79ed08044745a2c6451131727a2ef80cfd9b59b165" }