{ "number": 841, "headline": "January 15, 2026 Thursday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Multiple Arctic blasts will continue through end of January", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-01-16", "published": "2026-01-16T02:12:51.206000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 841: Good Evening, thank you to more renewing subscribers for Year 2 and 3 (!) \u2014 your generous support keeps this blog going without advertising. Day 15 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Low Temperatures through Next Saturday January 24, 2026

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Very cold for the next 7-10 days across much of the eastern United States \u2014 with subzero temperatures lurking in the Midwest and Great Lakes, and single digits + teens dipping into Missouri and Tennessee middle of next week.

Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

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Compared to normal \u2014 we can see in the next 6-days the rotation of Arctic blasts through the Great Lakes connected to a semi-permanent mid-level trough connected to tropospheric polar vortex over Hudson Bay. Nothing too complicated about this pattern: a ridge bridge allows the jet stream to connect with polar air originating from Alaska and Siberia to bridge across the frozen Arctic Ocean and dip through Canada. Going to be a while to break this western ridge down \u2014 and kick along the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d anchored over Hudson Bay.

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Headlines Thursday Evening

Florida / South Georgia Snowfall

The RRFS-A (next flagship NOAA mesoscale model) shows much more snowfall on the backside of the moisture plume moving through the Southeast and then up the East Coast.

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The snowfall amounts from RRFS-A would seem to be an \u201cupper bound\u201d of potential from this system \u2026 especially the impacts up the Mid-Atlantic and into NYC and New England.

ECMWF 18z Model Simulation

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The \u201cEuro\u201d has been quite consistent with lighter snowfall accumulations \u2014 and trending downward. Still 2-days away, so we can always adjust the other direction.

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ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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3 significant Great Lakes upper-level troughs \u2014 each with significant blasts of Canadian Arctic cold air \u2026 as the Western ridge blocks / forms a bridge for the jet stream to continuously tap the Siberian/polar air masses

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -40\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

The Western U.S. and Pacific Northwest ridge is very apparent and firmly entrenched vs. the Hudson Bay / Arctic Canada undulations are dipping southward into the eastern U.S. = cold. The reservoir of cold air remains largely intact through 10-days centered over Ontario/Quebec. Very impressive to see the -40\u00b0C to -45\u00b0C contours dipping into the Great Lakes and Northeast \u2014> risk for extreme cold.

HRRR Next 48-hours Radar | Through Saturday 1 PM ET

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ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days | My Favorite Parameter

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Multiple Arctic blasts crash out of Canada into the Lower 48 \u2014 reaching the Gulf Coast and draining through Florida. Very cold period starting \u2014 underway east of the Rockies.

A rare January tropical storm may also be classified in the Eastern Pacific but not impact land.

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type and Intensity | Next 6-days

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3 Clipper systems with snowfall track through Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast

  1. Current storm bombarding Toronto into interior New England

  2. Clipper for Friday \u2014 Saturday

  3. Another early next week

Southeast \u2014> East Coast moisture plume but misses phasing

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The frontal boundary that delivers the snowfall to the Southeast does have a surface low pressure forming off the Mid-Atlantic but it remains well off the coast and far enough away from the upper-level jet to phase properly and intensify. Instead the low remains flat and races NNE. The Canadian Maritimes get walloped again.

Europe Storm Systems next 6-days

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Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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Into Days 10 \u2014> check out the enormous Canadian cold pool and intensity (more than 30\u00b0F below normal in the ensemble mean)

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

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We are getting some central Georgia snowfall in the NWS grids > 1\u201d around Macon.

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RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 8:30 PM ET

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Average Lower 48 temperature was 36.6\u00b0F with 167 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 8:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 1.4\u00b0F

Friday Morning Low Temperatures

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213 million below freezing \u2014 nationwide average of 26.1\u00b0F

Friday High Temperatures

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Nationwide average of 43.1\u00b0F

Saturday High Temperatures

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models v5.0 | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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ECMWF 18z | Snowfall Next 6-days

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European Winter | Snowfall Next 6-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 15-days

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Probability of 0.1-inch or more Snowfall in the next 6-days [18z]

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50-75% chance of snowfall > 0.1\u201d (accumulations) from Florida panhandle through South Georgia and up into the Carolinas

Probability of 1-inch or more Snowfall in the next 6-days [18z]

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Still 10-20% chance of at least an inch of snowfall (that\u2019s impressive) from Pensacola to Tallahassee, and higher > 30% to Savannah.

Probability of 6-inch or more Snowfall in the next 15-days

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Ensemble Median Snowfall for Europe Next 15-days

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Eurasia Temperature Anomaly | Week 1 and Week 2

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Brutal cold for Eastern Europe into Russia.

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

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The back half of January will see much below normal temperatures east of the Rockies and across all of Canada.

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 15 - Jan 19

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 20 - Jan 24

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 25 - Jan 29

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

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Very cold for the next 7-10 days across much of the eastern United States \u2014 with subzero temperatures lurking in the Midwest and Great Lakes, and single digits + teens dipping into Missouri and Tennessee middle of next week.

Compared to normal \u2014 we can see in the next 6-days the rotation of Arctic blasts through the Great Lakes connected to a semi-permanent mid-level trough connected to tropospheric polar vortex over Hudson Bay. Nothing too complicated about this pattern: a ridge bridge allows the jet stream to connect with polar air originating from Alaska and Siberia to bridge across the frozen Arctic Ocean and dip through Canada. Going to be a while to break this western ridge down \u2014 and kick along the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d anchored over Hudson Bay.

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