{ "number": 840, "headline": "January 14, 2026 Wednesday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Here comes winter to the Great Lakes and then Southeast into weekend with snowfall in Florida", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-01-15", "published": "2026-01-15T01:49:06.985000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 840: Good Evening, thank you to more renewing subscribers for Year 2 and 3 (!) \u2014 your generous support keeps this blog going without advertising. Day 14 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

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Returning once more this evening to the extended range global temperatures from the European flagship full-physics ensemble \u2014 the control (HRES) and the ensemble mean. Both show remarkable Northern Hemisphere land cooling to more than 1.2\u00b0C below normal, and the global number to near the 30-year normal (1991-2020). This is widespread, extreme cold for North America and Eurasia into the end of January.

Ensemble Mean | Day 10.5

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Control (HRES) | Day 10.5

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Control (HRES) Day 14

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Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days \u2014> Arctic blasts on repeat with multiple cold fronts / storm systems \u2014> very active pattern.

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Southeast Snowfall Event \u2014 potential for accumulating snowfall from Florida to Carolinas \u2014> Saturday night through Sunday

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Headlines Wednesday Evening

Florida / South Georgia Snowfall

Wow! This is still 4-days away & in model world that could mean poof or double-down on snowfall amounts. Seems like the solution is trending toward a LOT more snowfall in recent forecast cycles.

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Cold Friday Morning Behind Arctic Front

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Lower 20s across Georgia and the Carolinas \u2014 maybe even teens into North Florida

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Very cold in Florida to Orlando with lower 30s or even upper-20s well south of Interstate 4

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ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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If you watch several times, then you\u2019ll see the arrival of multiple height anomalies from the Arctic by way of Siberia transported along the \u201cridge bridge\u201d built up across the Gulf of Alaska.

Multiple Arctic blasts across the Great Lakes and Eastern U.S. in the next 10-days as the Hudson Bay anchored tropospheric polar vortex spins very cold air around it.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -40\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

The Western U.S. and Pacific Northwest ridge is very apparent and firmly entrenched vs. the Hudson Bay / Arctic Canada undulations are dipping southward into the eastern U.S. = cold. The reservoir of cold air remains largely intact through 10-days centered over Ontario/Quebec.

HRRR Next 18-hours Radar | Through Thursday Noon ET

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Snowfall next 18-hours \u2014> huge Lake Huron + system snow for Toronto

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ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days | My Favorite Parameter

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Multiple Arctic blasts crash out of Canada into the Lower 48 \u2014 reaching the Gulf Coast and draining through Florida. Very cold period starting \u2014 underway east of the Rockies.

A rare January tropical storm may also be classified in the Eastern Pacific but not impact land.

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type and Intensity | Next 6-days

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3 Clipper systems with snowfall track through Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast

  1. Current storm bombarding Toronto into interior New England

  2. Clipper for Friday \u2014 Saturday

  3. Another early next week

Southeast \u2014> East Coast \u2014 Northeast snowfall threat?

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The frontal boundary that delivers the snowfall to the Southeast does have a surface low pressure forming off the Mid-Atlantic. If this could edge westward and phase with the cold upper-level trough / polar vortex, then we could see something special (Nor\u2019easter) that is very impactful for Sunday \u2014 Monday. Watching closely!

Europe Storm Systems next 6-days

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Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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Into Days 10 \u2014> check out the enormous Canadian cold pool and intensity (more than 30\u00b0F below normal in the ensemble mean)

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

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Lake Effect Snow Machine!

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RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 6:30 PM ET

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Average Lower 48 temperature was 43.4\u00b0F with 64 million below freezing.

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Fairbanks finally warmed up out of the -40s but the extreme cold shifted westward with -50s in the interior of Alaska. Yikes!

Temperature Anomaly | 6:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 6.1\u00b0F

Thursday Morning Low Temperatures

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175 million below freezing \u2014 nationwide average of 26.8\u00b0F

Thursday High Temperatures

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40 million at least 70\u00b0F \u2014> nationwide average of 46.3\u00b0F

Only in the mid-30s for Atlanta \u2014 bleh!

Friday High Temperatures

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models v5.0 | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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Western U.S. barely a snowflake \u2014> winter is busted

Lake Effect Snow Machine \u2014> cranks up again!

ECMWF 18z | Snowfall Next 6-days

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Yikes! Upwards of 4-6\u201d of snowfall in South Georgia and North Florida

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European Winter | Snowfall Next 6-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 14-days

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Probability of 0.1-inch or more Snowfall in the next 6-days [18z]

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There is an increasing chance > 50% of \u201csome snowfall\u201d from the Florida panhandle through southeast Georgia into the Carolinas.

Probability of 1-inch or more Snowfall in the next 6-days [18z]

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10% - 20% chance of at least an inch of snowfall (that\u2019s impressive) from Pensacola to Tallahassee to Savannah.

Probability of 6-inch or more Snowfall in the next 10-days

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Ensemble Median Snowfall for Europe Next 14-days

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Eurasia Temperature Anomaly | Week 1 and Week 2

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 14 - Jan 18

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 19 - Jan 23

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 24 - Jan 28

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Returning once more this evening to the extended range global temperatures from the European flagship full-physics ensemble \u2014 the control (HRES) and the ensemble mean. Both show remarkable Northern Hemisphere land cooling to more than 1.2\u00b0C below normal, and the global number to near the 30-year normal (1991-2020). This is widespread, extreme cold for North America and Eurasia into the end of January.

Ensemble Mean | Day 10.5

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