{ "number": 836, "headline": "January 8, 2026 Thursday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Ensembles show major Canadian cold pool reforming next weekend", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-01-08", "published": "2026-01-08T18:22:53.837000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 836: Good Afternoon, thank you to renewing subscribers for Year 2 or 3 (!) \u2014 your support keeps this little blog going without advertising, churning out on average 28 posts per month \u2014> Day 8 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Powerful \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d impacting southern England today

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The area of low pressure intensified by > 24 mb in 24-hours meeting the requirements of \u201cbombogenesis\u201d \u2026 the tail end of the cold front is attached to another cyclone upstream as seen from my favorite variable: precipitable water.

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On the back side of the low pressure center, there is plenty of moisture falling into colder Arctic air \u2014> snowfall upwards of 12-15\u201d over England NW of London including Birmingham \u2014 huge amount for this area.

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On the southerly periphery of the low, a chevron shaped band of gusty winds > hurricane force whips through the English Channel. The next 18-hours of wind gusts from Germany\u2019s ICON-EU mesoscale model:

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And Zooming out to show Northeast Atlantic at 850-mb wind speeds.

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Central Pressure is 968 mb \u2026 and we can see the dynamic tropopause pressure all wrapped up in a serpentine coil over London.

What causes this Sting Jet phenomena? Dynamics: The tropopause descends downward \u2014 quite significantly, associated with the jet stream (sharp gradient aloft) \u2014 guiding high-momentum air to near the boundary layer. This near stratospheric origin air is VERY dry.

But, in order for that air to get to the surface, need evaporative cooling \u2014 a thermodynamic process \u2014 to further cool that air mass to make it denser and continue its descent. Moisture from the \u201ccloud head\u201d is wrapped around the storm but evaporates so quickly that we see a dry slot.

This is deceiving to say nothing if we say nothing is happening here, but it\u2019s clear air mega-turbulence with high-momentum, very dry, and dense air wrapping around the storm\u2019s center.

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Gemini 3 Pro makes incredible diagrams if prompted correctly and guided. I wish I had this one for my dissertation!

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850 mb Wind Speed Snapshot

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Wild Winter Weather in Europe \u2014> \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d underway

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Hard to keep track of all the low pressure systems across the Eastern Atlantic into Europe. This is a similar look to the West Coast of North America with an active polar vortex \u2026 but here it\u2019s associated with the Icelandic Low.

USA Storm Systems

HRRR 12z shows the next 48-hours through Saturday 7 AM ET

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(1) Ongoing storm system moving through central Plains into the Great Lakes into Friday

(2) Another developing storm to the south with much more moisture for the Southeast, but then more snowfall for the Great Lakes

ECMWF 06z Precipitation Type and Intensity | Next 6-days

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ECMWF 06z Precipitable Water Next 6-days | My Favorite Parameter

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High Temperatures through Next Friday (January 16)

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Seasonable temperatures for the next 8-10 days without risk of extreme cold. Temperatures dip into the 20s for highs in the Great Lakes behind passing storm systems but the available reservoir of cold air in Canada is limited for any major \u201cpolar vortex\u201d intrusions for the next 10 days, but the risk increases into the last third of January.

Weather Trader is an entirely subscriber-supported publication [sweat equity] from Dr. Ryan Maue. To receive all new posts, consider becoming a free [1-2 updates per week] or paid subscriber [golden ticket] and please LIKE and SHARE posts.

ECMWF 00z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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Huge pattern shift into Days 10-15 with massive Canadian cool pool formation from flagship ECMWF 00z (ensemble mean)

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

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RTMA | Current Temperature Analysis | 12:30 PM ET

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Average Lower 48 temperature was 43.9\u00b0F with only 20 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 12:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly whopping above normal by 10.2\u00b0F

Thursday High Temperatures

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83 million at least 70\u00b0F and almost 33 million at 80\u00b0F

Friday Morning Low Temperatures

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59 million below freezing \u2014 nationwide average of 33.0\u00b0F

Friday High Temperatures

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72 million at least 70\u00b0F \u2014> nationwide average of 47.2\u00b0F

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Huge rainfall totals across MS/AL into NW Georgia and Tennessee

Blend of Models v5.0 | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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ECMWF AIFS-Single 06z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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Major blocking ridge forms over Gulf of Alaska with AIFS-06z. That\u2019s interesting.

ECMWF 06z | Snowfall | Next 6-days | Lower 48 and Europe

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European Winter | Heavy Snowfall

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ECMWF EPS 00z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 14-days

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Probability of 6-inch or more Snowfall in the next 14-days

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Ensemble Median Snowfall for Europe Next 14-days

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European Temperature Anomaly | Week 1 and Week 2

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 8 - Jan 12

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 13 - Jan 16

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 17 - Jan 21

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Huge cold pool forming across Canada and crossing into the Lower 48

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

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The area of low pressure intensified by > 24 mb in 24-hours meeting the requirements of \u201cbombogenesis\u201d \u2026 the tail end of the cold front is attached to another cyclone upstream as seen from my favorite variable: precipitable water.

On the back side of the low pressure center, there is plenty of moisture falling into colder Arctic air \u2014> snowfall upwards of 12-15\u201d over England NW of London including Birmingham \u2014 huge amount for this area.

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