{ "number": 829, "headline": "December 29, 2025 Monday Morning Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Hudson Bay Polar Vortex Company back in business with much colder air week ahead", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-12-29", "published": "2025-12-29T16:01:44.973000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 829: Good Morning \u2014 Less than 3-Days until New Year 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

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Top Story: Powerful \u201cBomb Cyclone\u201d will dominate the circulation pattern across much of North America with much colder air settling across the Eastern US

ECMWF 06z Precipitable Water Next 6-days | My Favorite Parameter

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A flood of cold/dry air behind the powerful cold front with the \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d will continue through the week into the weekend for the Northeast = a chilly week ahead until the Western ridge can build back better.

The Arctic cold front blasts through South Florida.

An unusual \u201csubtropical storm\u201d will come out of the tropical Eastern Pacific and \u201clandfall\u201d California \u2014 warm origin system so expect more heavy rain.

Textbook ingredients to get \u201cEdmund Fitzgerald\u201d type powerful storm system

976 mb \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d vs. 1036 mb high pressure over central U.S. = gradient & very strong winds \u2026 another extratropical cyclone is situated off Newfoundland but is blocked from heading out into the Atlantic by the \u201cGreenland Block\u201d

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Jet stream \u2014 Jet streak aiding in \u201crapid cyclogenesis\u201d \u2014> front left quadrant

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500 mb Height Anomaly \u2014 upper level trough associated with \u201cpolar vortex\u201d lobe directly upstream = rapid pressure falls

Polar Vortex well positioned to flood Great Lakes and Northeast with cold, Canadian Arctic air: 500 mb Temperature Next 6-days shows a \u201cstuck pattern\u201d with the upper-level trough continuing to wrap up like a \u201ctreble clef\u201d

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HRRR Simulated Radar Next 18-hours

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Extreme Wind Gusts over the Great Lakes > 50 to 70 mph

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Maximum Wind Gusts from NWS Next 72-hours (red = 50 mph+)

Perhaps near hurricane force (74 mph) along the end of Lake Erie near Buffalo

Current Wind Gusts > 50 mph along Lake Michigan and Lake Erie

Snowfall Next 18-hours | Lake Effect Snow Machine cranked up!

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Northeast View \u2014 Lake Effect snow bands will streak across from Lake Superior across Huron and into New York and Pennsylvania

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Simulated Radar Next 48-hours into Wednesday 7 AM ET

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ECMWF 06z Precipitation Type and Intensity | Next 6-days

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Weird Subtropical System for California \u2014 then another sequence of storm systems arriving out of cold, northwest flow

ECMWF 06z Precipitation Type and Intensity | Next 6-days

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NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

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RTMA | Current Temperature Analysis | 9:00 AM ET

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Average Lower 48 temperature was 26.3\u00b0F with 121 million below freezing.

Current Dew Point Temperature | 9:00 AM ET

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Arctic air shows up well with Dew Point \u2014 dry as a bone!

Temperature Anomaly | 9:00 AM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly finally has sunk below normal -1.6\u00b0F

Monday High Temperatures

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Nationwide average of only 38.6\u00b0F.

Tuesday Morning Low Temperatures

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238 million below freezing \u2014 nationwide average of 21.7\u00b0F

Tuesday High Temperatures

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Only 24 million at least 70\u00b0F \u2014> nationwide average of 41.8\u00b0F

ECMWF 00z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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Major pattern shift \u2014> much warmer (relative not normal) Atlantic origin air backs up from the Greenland Block and envelops Canada + ridging over Western U.S. finally erodes most of the coldest air on the continent. However, the Northeast still below average \u2014 small area but large population affected.

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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More California rainfall!

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Blend of Models v5.0 | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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Massive Lake Effect snowfall totals especially downwind of Erie, Ontario, and Huron

ECMWF AIFS-Single 06z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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The bomb cyclone interacts with the \u201cPolar Vortex\u201d lobe over the Northeast and then violently retrogrades into Hudson Bay \u2014 also due to the Greenland blocking ridge

ECMWF AIFS-Single 06z | Temperature at 500 hPa Next 10-days

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Multiple mid-level cold pools interacting over North America \u2026 recharged by Siberian cold pool air

North Pacific View

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ECMWF 06z | Snowfall | Next 6-days | Lower 48 and Europe

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European Winter Begins

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Europe Precipitation Type Next 6-days

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ECMWF EPS 00z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 14-days

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Ensemble Maximum | Max Snowfall out of 51-members thru 14-days

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NOTE: this is \u201cworst case scenario\u201d \u2014 only to show potential of extreme tails of distribution

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The actual chance of seeing accumulating snow somewhere in the Lower 48 is actually pretty small BUT not zero.

Probability of 1-inch or more Snowfall in the next 14-days

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As we can see the probability of snowfall is low in the Southeast \u2014 but not zero.

Probability of 6-inches or more Snowfall in the next 15-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z

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5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 29 - Jan 2

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 3 - Jan 7

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 8- Jan 12

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Top Story: Powerful \u201cBomb Cyclone\u201d will dominate the circulation pattern across much of North America with much colder air settling across the Eastern US

A flood of cold/dry air behind the powerful cold front with the \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d will continue through the week into the weekend for the Northeast = a chilly week ahead until the Western ridge can build back better.

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