{ "number": 825, "headline": "December 24, 2025 Christmas Eve", "standfirst": "Clipper system could deal significant snowfall to NYC through Saturday morning", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-12-25", "published": "2025-12-25T03:01:21.224000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

This is post number 825: Good Evening \u2014 Merry Christmas!

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

West Coast Atmospheric River + Storm Systems

\"\"

Embedded within the cyclonic flow around an upper-level, polar vortex \u201clobe\u201d trough off the West Coast of the United States \u2014> highly amplified pattern with a blocking ridge (Omega block)

The 500 mb Temperature is quite cold off the Pacific NW coast associated with highly anomalous trough (geopotential height anomaly) \u2026 an extreme weather pattern for late-December especially with the strong ridge formation

Give a gift subscription

Simulated Radar Next 48-hours into Friday Evening 7 pm ET

\"\"

Headlines Wednesday Evening

ECMWF 18z Precipitable Water Next 6-days

\"\"

  1. California finally transitions to \u201coffshore flow\u201d under high pressure but that will mean much lower humidity and strong winds \u2014 but all of this rain will mitigate any fire danger (thankfully) compared to early 2025.

  2. Mini Arctic blast for New England on Friday followed by a more powerful Eastern U.S. cold event into early next week

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type and Intensity | Next 6-days

\"\"

Larger continental view \u2014> main storm track remains across Southern Canada \u2014 more so like Clipper systems but they have moisture from the Pacific atmospheric rivers for some precipitation (snow) across the Great Lakes (+Lake Effect) and the Northeast this weekend \u2026 but that might not be as substantial as previous thought.

West Coast cyclone \u2014 down to about 977 mb within the upper-level low

\"\"

The onshore moisture flow continues until late Friday before the taps are finally turned off. Integrated Vapor Transport next 48-hours

\"\"

Eastern U.S. Storm Systems

\"\"

I\u2019d all the storm system a \u201cClipper\u201d late Friday into Saturday

\"\"

Accumulated Snowfall by P-Type + Estimated Snowfall from SLR

\"\"

I would be shocked to see > 0.5\u201d of QPF as snowfall in NYC, but that\u2019s the opening bid from ECMWF 18z

\"\"

Accumulated Freezing Rain by P-Type

\"\"

Significant freezing rain possible in Southeast Michigan > 0.5\u201d in Detroit and through Pennsylvania

European Winter about to get underway with colder air from the east slowly but surely making its way through France and Spain

\"\"

Weather Trader is an entirely subscriber-supported publication [sweat equity] from Dr. Ryan Maue. To receive all new posts, consider becoming a free [1-2 updates per week] or paid subscriber [golden ticket] and please LIKE and SHARE posts.

Next 48-hours of Wind Gusts from HRRR

\"\"

Precipitation Animation Next 48-hours

\"\"

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

\"\"

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

\"\"
\"\"

7-inches in NYC | How about that?

\"\"

RTMA | Current Temperature Analysis | 9:00 PM ET

\"\"

Average Lower 48 temperature was 46.4\u00b0F with 32 million below freezing.

\"\"

Temperatures have warmed up significantly in Alaska and Yukon \u2014 at least up to the -20s but that\u2019s an improvement over -65\u00b0F on Wednesday (coldest in 50-years in December in Canada)

Temperature Anomaly | 9:00 PM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly was scorching (!) 121\u00b0F ABOVE normal

Christmas Low Temperatures

\"\"

Warmest Christmas morning at least in the past 75-years across the Lower 48

However, still well below freezing in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast with 76 million population <= 32\u00b0F

Christmas Day High Temperatures

\"\"

110 million at least 70\u00b0F \u2014> nationwide average of 56.6\u00b0F. Enjoy!

ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

\"\"

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

\"\"

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

\"\"
\"\"
\"\"

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

\"\"

Sharp and intense troughs combine out of the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay into the Northeast by late next week \u2014> much colder

ECMWF 12z | Snowfall | Next 6-days

\"\"
\"\"

ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 15-days

\"\"

Probability of 3-inches or more Snowfall in the next 15-days

\"\"

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 24 - Dec 28

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 29 - Jan 2

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 3 - Jan 7

\"\"

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

Active coupon codes:

None. Please send a message or reply to this email for inquiries.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Embedded within the cyclonic flow around an upper-level, polar vortex \u201clobe\u201d trough off the West Coast of the United States \u2014> highly amplified pattern with a blocking ridge (Omega block)

The 500 mb Temperature is quite cold off the Pacific NW coast associated with highly anomalous trough (geopotential height anomaly) \u2026 an extreme weather pattern for late-December especially with the strong ridge formation

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:14Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/december-24-2025-christmas-eve" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "182546482.december-24-2025-christmas-eve", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/december-24-2025-christmas-eve", "slug": "december-24-2025-christmas-eve", "path": "/mp/825/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/825/", "desk_label": "Winter", "digest": "78cb30efa987ae20efeb285c34e68455bce9e1e72270a2c47f6553b30a220c15" }