{ "number": 821, "headline": "December 19, 2025 Friday Morning Weather Maps", "standfirst": "Very warm Christmas across the Lower 48", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-12-19", "published": "2025-12-19T14:30:42.610000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 821: Good Morning \u2014 only 6-days until Christmas! Welcome to new subscribers, long-time supporters, and visitors! Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

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Precipitation Type | Weather Next 6-days | ECMWF 06z

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Headlines Friday Morning

  1. Strong low pressure in the 950s mb still intensifying over Quebec will move into the Atlantic by Sunday, but rain/snow will finish up today across the Northeast

  2. A weaker Clipper system will follow through the Midwest and Great Lakes this weekend.

  3. West Coast US: A complex of storm systems within an upper-level cut-off trough (from a lobe of the Polar Vortex) = multiple atmospheric rivers & powerful low pressure surface cyclones over next week

  4. Christmas looks very warm for almost the entire Lower 48 relative to normal for December 25th. This is great for travelers and the economy (much less heating)

West Coast Atmospheric Rivers | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Atmospheric river with firehose of moisture streams in West Coast from north to south through Monday \u2014 then a powerful cyclone (surface low pressure) forms along the boundary w/assistance from the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d lobe dropping southward \u2026 the clash of air masses = series of storm systems can landfall California \u2014> enormous rainfall totals at lower elevations and heavy snow in the mountains

Precipitation Type and Intensity | Next 6-days

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Precipitation through 10-days is Insane | Blend of Models

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10\u201d to 15\u201d along the coast including the Monterey Bay to San Francisco Bay areas \u2014 and 20\u201d+ in the Sierra \u2014> this is LIQUID equivalent so anything that falls as snowfall will = roughly 10x that as frozen precipitation.

Today\u2019s Weather | Frontal Boundaries

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Northeast Storm System Today

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Pacific Northwest Storm System Today

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Coast to Coast Extreme Wind Gusts from Storms \u2014 actually centered in Southern Canada but Jet Stream is to the south through the Lower 48

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NWS Maximum Wind Gusts Next 3-days

HRRR 06z | Next 48-Hours Sim Radar through Sunday 1 AM ET

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RRFS-A Total Precipitation Through 84-hours \u2014> Monday 2 PM ET

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Northern and Central California precipitation through early Monday \u2014 just getting started with the deluge

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

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RTMA | Current Temperature Analysis | 8:00 AM ET

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Average Lower 48 temperature was 34.4\u00b0F with 87 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 8:00 AM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly was a 5.1\u00b0F ABOVE normal

Friday High Temperatures

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51 million below freezing in the Great Lakes vs. 54 million at least 70\u00b0F with 80s in Florida and Arizona and Southern California

Saturday Morning Low Temperatures

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More than 175 million below freezing

Christmas Day Temperatures | Morning Lows

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Only 64 million below freezing for low temperatures

Christmas Day Temperatures | Daily Highs

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Almost 104 million now at/above 70\u00b0F on Christmas Day!

ECMWF 06z Precipitable Water Next 6-days | My favorite parameter

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850 mb Winds Next 6-days | Powerful Storm Systems

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ECMWF 06z | Next 6-days Temperature Anomaly

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Chunks of the Western Canada cold pool break off with the passing storm systems \u2014 and sweep eastward to be replaced much warmer air from the south into early next week for a very warm Christmas across much of the Lower 48 \u2014 but not Alaska.

ECMWF 00z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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The Lower 48 settles into a MUCH ABOVE NORMAL temperature pattern \u2014 eventually \u2014 once we can finally block off the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d by the weekend.

Temperatures surge to well above normal for much/all of the Lower 48 by Christmas but Alaska goes into the VERY deep freeze

Blend of Models | 10 Days Precipitation Total

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Even more enormous rainfall totals across the Pacific Northwest continue into California

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

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ECMWF AIFS-Single 06z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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ECMWF AIFS-Single 06z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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Polar Vortex (tropospheric) monitor \u2014> the pink = coldest at 500 mb and we see the arrival of some cold air from Siberia over the pole into the New Year to reinforce the PV over Alaska and Canadian Arctic.

ECMWF 00z | Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days

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Parameter used for monitoring \u201catmospheric rivers\u201d usually along the U.S. west coast, but the idea works well for many other areas \u2014 highlighting midlatitude storm systems with warm conveyor belts (moisture plumes)

ECMWF 06z | Snowfall | Next 6-days

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ECMWF EPS 00z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 10-days

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Probability of 1-inch or more Snowfall in the next 10-days

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Probability of 6-inches or more Snowfall in the next 10-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 19 - Dec 23

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 24 - Dec 28

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 29 - Jan 2

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", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Strong low pressure in the 950s mb still intensifying over Quebec will move into the Atlantic by Sunday, but rain/snow will finish up today across the Northeast

A weaker Clipper system will follow through the Midwest and Great Lakes this weekend.

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