{ "number": 813, "headline": "December 11, 2025 Thursday Evening Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Watching big cities of Northeast for accumulating snowfall this weekend", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-12-12", "published": "2025-12-12T01:59:08.670000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 813: Good evening to new subscribers and visitors!

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

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HRRR 18z | Next 48-Hours through Saturday 1 PM ET

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RRFS-A 18z next 54 hours snowfall \u2014> Through Saturday evening

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Nice band of 6\u201d-8\u201d across several states. What\u2019s not to like?

Precipitation Type | Weather Next 6-days | ECMWF 18z

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Headlines Thursday Evening

  1. What becomes of the Clipper System this weekend as it emerges off the New England coastline? Plenty of very cold air + potential for burst of snowfall for the big cities along I-95 corridor including NYC and Boston (maybe 2-4\u201d+)

  2. VERY COLD \u2014 this weekend across the Midwest/Great Lakes peaking this Sunday.

  3. X is battling it out: will the upcoming Christmas holiday be a \u201cBlow Torch\u201d with very warm temperatures due to a strong coast-to-coast ridge anchored to the U.S. west coast OR will the polar vortex win out? I think there\u2019s going to be some erosion of the ridge at the margins e.g. Great Lakes and Northeast allowing dumps of Canadian Arctic air into the Lower 48 \u2014> but perhaps that will also mean more active storm tracks. That\u2019d be exciting.

Weekend Nor\u2019easter \u2014 All snow for land areas \u2014 woohoo, but how much QPF is available to this quickly moving, rather weak system?

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RRFS-A Snowfall is 3\u201d-6\u201d from NYC to Boston. Is that enough?

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Current Frontal Boundaries and Weather into Friday morning

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Low Temperatures Next 9-days | Until Saturday, Dec 20th

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Coldest mornings will be Sat/Sun/Mon across the Midwest and Great Lakes including Chicago at -3\u00b0F

ECMWF 18z Precipitable Water Next 6-days | My favorite parameter

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Temperatures | Current to Next 15-days

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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Flagship European model ensemble solution for temperature anomaly next 15-days

One more quick Arctic blast in the Days 8-10 time frame, and then the coast to coast ridge seems to take hold into Christmas \u2014 but still some cold in New England. The ridge will be weakest in the Great Lakes and Northeast, so that will be the battleground for the \u201cPolar Vortex\u201d anchored over Hudson Bay.

The Western Canada + Alaska cold pool is NOT going anywhere and continues to generate extremely cold air \u2014 available to any \u201cpolar vortex\u201d lobes that want it.

Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days | Into Wednesday afternoon

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Exceptionally cold air spills into the Midwest and Great Lakes into this weekend, but warmer air from the Southwest and Gulf of Mexico battles back \u2014> Light at the end of the tunnel

RTMA | Current Temperature Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

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Average Lower 48 temperature was 41.4\u00b0F

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Still dealing with this brutal inversion layer + fog/mist in the California Central Valley \u2014 an ocean of fog.

Temperature Anomaly | 7:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly was 4.1\u00b0F ABOVE normal

Friday Morning Low Temperatures

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172 million below freezing (Lower 48 average low is 28.9\u00b0F)

Friday High Temperatures

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Saturday Low Temperatures

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Sunday Low Temperatures | Arctic Blast Peak in Midwest + Great Lakes

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Frigid across the Midwest \u2014> colder than -20\u00b0F over Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas

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Chicago potential for two subzero mornings (Sunday -3\u00b0F and Monday -1\u00b0F) then thaw into Tuesday afternoon (!)

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NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

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Blend of Models | 10 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

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ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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Quick moving trough swings through the Great Lakes and Northeast at Days 8-10 before the blocking ridge solidifies once again. After Day 10, the uncertainty is, of course, highest.

NOAA AI-GFS 18z | 500 mb Temperature | Next 15-days

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GFS 18z | Dynamic Tropopause Day 10 Little White Fuzzball

Day 10 | 500 mb Height Anomaly from ECMWF Full Physics Products

Day 10 | 500 mb Height Anomaly from ECMWF AIFS Products

Will the ridging win out \u2014 or edge southward just enough to allow the coldest Canadian air to squat over the northern tier of the Lower 48 into the end of December?

ECMWF 12z | Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days | North America

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Parameter used for monitoring \u201catmospheric rivers\u201d usually along the U.S. west coast, but the idea works well for many other areas \u2014 highlighting midlatitude storm systems with warm conveyor belts (moisture plumes)

ECMWF 18z | Snowfall | Next 6-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 15-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 1\u201d | Next 15-days

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We\u2019ll be monitoring the 1\u201d chance of snowfall for a \u201cWhite Christmas\u201d in the coming weeks. This map is through morning December 26th.

ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 6\u201d | Next 15-days

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6-inches is sufficient for a \u201cbig storm\u201d and Lake Effect machine diagnostic

Next 15-days Temperature Anomaly | Ensemble Mean to December 25

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 11 - Dec 15

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 16 - Dec 20

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 21 - Dec 25

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Comparison with 5-Day Chunk #3 from the 00z EPS cycle

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5-day Difference between the previous cycle is quite small \u2014 only a minor adjustment

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Note, we\u2019ll be watching the Canadian border in the coming days.

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", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Two bursts of snowfall with Alberta Clippers will travel the same route and blanket the Midwest and southern Great Lakes with nice snowfall accumulations

Moisture is courtesy of the landfalling atmospheric rivers in the Pacific Northwest

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