{ "number": 81, "headline": "August 28, 2023 Hurricane Season", "standfirst": "Idalia expected to reach major hurricane status prior to landfall", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2023-08-28", "published": "2023-08-28T12:12:50.450000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "

Top stories Monday morning:

(1) Tropical Storm Idalia is steadily intensifying in the NW Caribbean and nearing hurricane strength. Model and statistical guidance shows a Category 2 or 3 (major) hurricane at landfall in Florida. 100-knots is the first notch in Category 3. Rapid intensification chances are much higher than normal, no surprise over the very warm Gulf of Mexico. There is an increasing risk of a much more intense storm that indicated. Ominous messages from NHC for Idalia\u2019s impact to Florida [8 AM ET]

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...IDALIA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WHEN IT NEARS WESTERN \nCUBA LATER TODAY...\n...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING\nINCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...
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(2) Extreme heat finally has broken in Dallas and New Orleans. After all-time historical record highs in the 100s and 110s, temperatures are settling back into the 90s. The Great Lakes and Northeast remain comfortably in the 70s and 80s.

Dallas: 94\u00b0F, New Orleans: 95\u00b0F, Atlanta: 91\u00b0F

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Monday High Temperatures | National Blend of Models | weathermodels.com

(3) Hurricane Franklin is now 130-mph (942 mb pressure) the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season and expected to become Category 4 later on Monday. Franklin will miss Bermuda to the north and west.

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Tropical Storm Idalia

NHC 8 AM ET updated track brings the center of Idalia as a major hurricane west of Tampa Bay at 1 AM Wednesday. There is another 6-12 hours before landfall of additional intensification. The landfall intensity is currently forecast to be at least 100-knots (Category 3).

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Threats: Rainfall and flooding: 8-inches of rainfall expected near the core of Idalia in the Taylor and Dixie County coastline of Florida\u2019s Big Bend with about 3\u201d in Tallahassee and 4\u201d in Jacksonville and Gainesville. Locally, one can expect these precipitation totals to be significantly more in stronger bands.

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Winds: Hurricane force winds and stronger gusts will extend about 50-75 miles away from the center of Idalia. The current NWS maximum forecast wind gusts is not continuous but shows the snapshot location of Idalia every 6-hours. I see 74-mph winds over Jacksonville, and up to 100-115 mph gusts at landfall. This map will be refined and updated over the next 24-hours.

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Peak storm surge: Tampa Bay to see 4 to 7 feet of storm surge. Up the coast in the Big Bend 7 to 11 feet.

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Short term Atlantic Tropics

Major Hurricane Franklin was visited by aircraft recon and found to be 110-knots (942 mb) early Monday morning. The track of Franklin is also important for Idalia as the large moves and shakers in the tropics and subtropics are all interacting. A slight change in the location of a ridge relative to Franklin could affect the steering or slow / speed up Idalia. Large waves and swell will impact the East Coast, but not as bad since the track of Franklin is to the North and then ENE.

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ECMWF significant wave height | Valid Wednesday Aug 30, 2023

Medium Range Atlantic Tropics

Complete update on the rest of the Atlantic this afternoon.

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Atlantic 2023 Year to Date | ACE: 30 (110% normal | 27)

  1. Unnamed Storm [January 2023]

  2. Arlene 02L: 35 knots

  3. Bret 03L: 60 knots

  4. Cindy 04L: 50 knots

  5. Don 05L: 65 knots

  6. Emily 07L: 45 knots

  7. Franklin 08L: forecast Hurricane

  8. Gert 06L: 35 knots

  9. Harold 09L: 45-knots

  10. Idalia: forecast major hurricane

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

Tropical Storm Irwin (10E) is no threat to land. It is struggling with 35-40 mph winds.

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Eastern Pacific 2023 Year to Date

  1. Adrian 01E: 90 knots

  2. Beatriz 02E: 75 knots

  3. Calvin 03E: 110 knots

  4. Four 04E: 30 knots

  5. Dora 05E: 125 knots

  6. Eugene 06E: 60 knots

  7. Fernanda 07E: 115 knots

  8. Greg 08E: 45 knots

  9. Hilary 09E: 125 knots

  10. Irwin 10E: tropical storm

ACE: 105 | 143% of normal (73)

Western Pacific Typhoon Season

Typhoon Saola (09W) has moved away from Luzon and is finishing its CCW loop. It will continue to intensify, currently at 115-knots (Category 4).

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Western Pacific Typhoon 2023 Year to Date

  1. Sanvu 01W: 30 knots

  2. Mawar 02W: 160 knots

  3. Guchol 03W: 90 knots

  4. Talim 04W: 85 knots

  5. Doksuri 05W: 130 knots

  6. Khanun 06W: 120 knots

  7. Lan 07W: 115 knots

  8. Damrey 08W: forecast Typhoon

  9. Saola 09W: forecast Super Typhoon

ACE: 167 | 134% normal (124)

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Top stories Monday morning:

(1) Tropical Storm Idalia is steadily intensifying in the NW Caribbean and nearing hurricane strength. Model and statistical guidance shows a Category 2 or 3 (major) hurricane at landfall in Florida. 100-knots is the first notch in Category 3. Rapid intensification chances are much higher than normal, no surprise over the very warm Gulf of Mexico. There is an increasing risk of a much more intense storm that indicated. Ominous messages from NHC for Idalia\u2019s impact to Florida [8 AM ET]

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