{ "number": 804, "headline": "December 2, 2025 Tuesday Evening Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Cold in Great Lakes into weekend as December remains below normal for Eastern U.S.", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-12-03", "published": "2025-12-03T01:42:28.565000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 803 \u2026 evening update to keep the ball rolling into the wild winter ahead | Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Next 15-days Temperature Anomaly | Ensemble Mean to December 16

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Main story for the next couple weeks is cold air entrenched in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast with the main tropospheric polar vortex perilously close to the Lower 48 locked onto a fulcrum over Hudson and James Bay. Shortwave impulses riding along the polar front / jet stream will grab lobes of the PV and keep Canadian Arctic air flowing southward.

However, there is uncertainty about the strength of a subtropical ridge from the Pacific / Western U.S. extending into the Southeast into Day 10 (Dec 12th) that may keep the worst of the Arctic air at bay \u2014 and instead pooling/building in Western Canada and Alaska. The next \u201cpolar vortex\u201d blast of cold air might be more of a Western U.S. / Rocky Mountain origin event rather than relying upon the Hudson Bay company PV. That\u2019s welcome new for the already winter wearing Great Lakes and Northeast for a reprieve from the cold weather next week \u2014 but we\u2019re going INTO winter and it\u2019s eventually going to get a lot worse.

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Week 2 Modeling is Warmer across Eastern US \u2014 ECMWF EPS 12z | 7-day Temperature Change from previous cycle \u2014 but colder in Western Canada

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Precipitation Type | Weather Next 6-days | ECMWF 18z

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Weak Cutter System late Friday

15-day Stratosphere | EPS Ensemble Mean 10 mb Wind and Temperature Anomaly \u2014> Sudden Warming Event #2 still scheduled

Headlines Tuesday Evening

  1. Nor\u2019easter sliding of the coast of New England \u2014 bringing the first plowable snow to New Hampshire and Vermont + Maine. The low pressure is close enough to the coast to prevent cold air aloft from eroding the marine influence \u2014 so we have 35\u00b0F and rain in Boston! Only light accumulations of snow or mixture will affect the I-95 corridor into the evening hours.

  2. A weak cutter-type storm system might providing a quick burst of mixture/snow for Washington D.C. into VA and NC \u2014 1\u201d to 3\u201d accumulations

  3. Subtropical ridging in the Southeast could keep the Arctic / Polar Vortex at bay with more mild temperatures into next week \u2014 we\u2019ll see.

  4. Sudden Stratospheric Warming event #2 (see yesterday\u2019s explainer post)

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Temperature Analysis | 7:45 PM ET

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Temperature Anomaly | 7:45 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly was -3.9\u00b0F below normal

HRRR 22z | Simulated Radar Next 18-hours into Wednesday 11AM ET

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New England: less than 100-miles = difference between 20 million more getting 6\u201d-12\u201d rather than inland

More snow showers in the Great Lakes \u2014 oh joy! Schools were closed along Lake Michigan shoreline

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total (includes liquid from snow)

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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Wednesday Morning Low Temperatures

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214 million below freezing (Lower 48 average low is 23.9\u00b0F)

Wednesday High Temperatures

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Still 46 Million remain below freezing for high temperatures \u2014 80s in south Florida

Thursday Low Temperatures

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200 million below freezing (Lower 48 average low is 21.4\u00b0F)

Friday Low Temperatures

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185 million below freezing (Lower 48 average low is 24.4\u00b0F)

ECMWF 18z | 500 mb Temperatures | Polar Vortex Watch Next 6-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | 15-day Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly

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Flagship European model ensemble solution for temperature anomaly next 15-days

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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Day 10 Height Anomaly Products from NOAA \u2014> GFS/GEFS + AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

All look quite similar \u2026 with uncertainty in the magnitude of the Pacific NW trough vs. ridge in the Southwest

Comparison with ECMWF Suite of Full-Physics and AI modeling

Uncertainty: Top left of the second window of 4 charts \u2014> ECMWF IFS (Control) which has a much more intense trough in the Pacific Northwest \u2014> and stronger ridge in the Southeast/Eastern U.S.

Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days

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Parameter used for monitoring \u201catmospheric rivers\u201d usually along the U.S. west coast, but the idea works well for many other areas \u2014 highlighting midlatitude storm systems with warm conveyor belts (moisture plumes)

ECMWF 18z | Snowfall | Next 6-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 15-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 1\u201d | Next 15-days

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We\u2019ll be monitoring the 1\u201d chance of snowfall for a \u201cWhite Christmas\u201d in the coming weeks.

ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 6\u201d | Next 15-days

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6-inches is sufficient for a \u201cbig storm\u201d and Lake Effect machine diagnostic

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 2 - Dec 6

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 7 - Dec 11

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 12 - Dec 16

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", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Main story for the next couple weeks is cold air entrenched in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast with the main tropospheric polar vortex perilously close to the Lower 48 locked onto a fulcrum over Hudson and James Bay. Shortwave impulses riding along the polar front / jet stream will grab lobes of the PV and keep Canadian Arctic air flowing southward.

However, there is uncertainty about the strength of a subtropical ridge from the Pacific / Western U.S. extending into the Southeast into Day 10 (Dec 12th) that may keep the worst of the Arctic air at bay \u2014 and instead pooling/building in Western Canada and Alaska. The next \u201cpolar vortex\u201d blast of cold air might be more of a Western U.S. / Rocky Mountain origin event rather than relying upon the Hudson Bay company PV. That\u2019s welcome new for the already winter wearing Great Lakes and Northeast for a reprieve from the cold weather next week \u2014 but we\u2019re going INTO winter and it\u2019s eventually going to get a lot worse.

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