{ "number": 801, "headline": "November 29, 2025 Weekend Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Nor'easter watch for next week", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-11-29", "published": "2025-11-29T16:09:45.655000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Welcome to new subscribers and visitors! I am very thankful for your continuing support heading into this crazy winter. This is post number 800.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Next 15-days Temperature Anomaly | Ensemble Mean

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The coldest air in the 15-day mean is centered over Iowa and Chicago \u2014 likely due to the snow cover/depth remaining for the next 1-2 weeks without a sustained warmup in the cards. Also, depending upon the track of a potential Nor\u2019easter in the middle of next week, we may have long-lasting snow depth into December across New England.

We really went from those quite warm days of autumn to full-tilt winter in like 2-weeks.

Snow Depth Forecast in 10-days | into December 9, 2025

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Lower 48 precipitation type + MSLP for the next 6-days | ECMWF 18z

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Headlines Saturday Morning

  1. Powerful Midwest \u2014> Great Lakes storm system moves quickly into Quebec dragging another strong Arctic cold front across the eastern U.S.

  2. Nor\u2019easter watch! The ECMWF flagship model keeps flipping between a major 12-18\u201d jackpot over New England to a more management 3-6\u201d event with the difference due to phasing of surface low with the upper-level trough. Tricky forecast! Note the heavier rain along the Gulf coast into the Southeast.

  3. Next 2-weeks remain stuck with well below normal temperatures across the Eastern U.S. as the mega-load of \u201cPolar Vortex\u201d cold pool wobbles around Hudson/James Bay waiting for any shortwave out of the Pacific to capture a lobe.

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Temperature Analysis | 9:45 AM ET

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Subzero air in Montana with teens and lower 20s into Minneapolis. Near freezing in Chicago and Detroit

Temperature Anomaly | 9:45 AM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly was -4.0\u00b0F below normal

Midwest \u2014> Great Lakes Snow Storm Radar through 10:20 AM ET

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HRRR 12z | Simulated Radar Next 48-hours into Monday Morning

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The front fizzles out as it reaches the Southeast with only some lighter showers. The main energy with the surface low quickly tracks into Ontario/Quebec and takes the QPF with it \u2014> but we\u2019ll see quite a blanket of snowfall in excess of a foot for huge area.

Total Snowfall From HRRR Next 18-hours | 12z \u2014> Sunday 1 AM ET

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Like taking a paint brush and coloring the canvas with beautiful hues of blue and pink, my favorite maps (aside from precipitable water)

Lower 48 | Frontal Boundaries and storm systems today

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NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

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Heavy rain: 1\u201d to 2\u201d+ from the next storm system / potential Nor\u2019easter into early next week across the Deep South and Gulf Coast into the Southeast.

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

Chicago, Milwaukee, Des Moines > 12\u201d \u2026 we\u2019ll see how much southern Michigan sees \u2014 but at least a foot in Kalamazoo, and over 6\u201d in Detroit. Plenty of shoveling and plowing for huge population \u2014 roughly 28.7 million from the NWS NDFD through 72-hours for 6-inches+

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RRFS-A through 84-hours (Tuesday 2 PM ET) | Snowfall totals

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This map is beautiful \u2026 RRFS-A is a 3-km resolution model and my color table is dazzling.

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total (includes liquid from snow)

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Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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The Blend of Models (ensemble mean) showing snowfall for Northeast and New England that\u2019s generally in the 2\u201d range for NYC and Boston, maybe a little more. Fine line between huge snow storm from the Nor\u2019easter, or a whiff.

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Saturday High Temperatures

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Sunday Low Temperatures

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176 million below freezing (Lower 48 average low is 25.2\u00b0F)

Sunday High Temperatures

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Monday Low Temperatures

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171 million below freezing (Lower 48 average low is 23.0\u00b0F)

Monday High Temperatures

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New AI-GFS | 500 mb Temperatures | Polar Vortex Watch Next 10-days

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Amazing cold locked up over Hudson / James Bay with -50\u00b0C coldest air at 500 mb perilously close to the Lower 48 borders \u2014 waiting for passing shortwaves coming out of the Gulf of Alaska to pull down or snatch lobes.

ECMWF EPS 00z | 15-day Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly

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Alaska goes into the deep freeze \u2014 but also the Great Lakes, too

Atmospheric Moisture | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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My favorite parameter! The white coloring is the coldest/dries of the tropospheric \u201cPolar Vortex\u201d and you can trace the origin of the air from Greenland and the Arctic Ocean over next 6-days.

ECMWF AIFS 06z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days

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Parameter used for monitoring \u201catmospheric rivers\u201d

European Weather Next 6-days

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Note the preponderance of \u201cgreen\u201d for precipitation type of rain \u2026 warmer pattern

ECMWF 00z and 06z | Snowfall | Next 6-days

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New England \u2014 Nor\u2019easter watch!

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ECMWF EPS 00z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 10-days

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Median from ensembles at 00z was 5\u201d in Boston \u2014 right on the edge

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ECMWF EPS 00z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 1\u201d | Next 10-days

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Need to look at the snowfall margin again in the Southeast \u2014 thankfully 0% chance in Atlanta for next 10-days, but this is an impressive cold pattern + snow for early December.

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ECMWF EPS 00z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 6\u201d | Next 10-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Nov 29 - Dec 3

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 4 - Dec 8

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 9 - Dec 13

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Snowfall Analysis | October 2025 - today

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The coldest air in the 15-day mean is centered over Iowa and Chicago \u2014 likely due to the snow cover/depth remaining for the next 1-2 weeks without a sustained warmup in the cards. Also, depending upon the track of a potential Nor\u2019easter in the middle of next week, we may have long-lasting snow depth into December across New England.

We really went from those quite warm days of autumn to full-tilt winter in like 2-weeks.

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