{ "number": 799, "headline": "November 26, 2025 Wednesday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Another major winter storm on way for this weekend to snarl holiday travel", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-11-27", "published": "2025-11-27T02:09:08.853000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Good Wednesday Evening! Welcome to new subscribers and visitors! This is post number 798. Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

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HRRR 23z | Simulated Radar Next 18-hours into Noon on Thursday

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Storm system finally moves away into Quebec but cold Canadian Arctic air spills in behind the cold front for the \u201cLake Effect Snow Machine\u201d phase of this storm event.

Wind Gusts will slowly die down from the 40-50 mph to around 30-35 mph into midday on Thanksgiving

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Total Snowfall From HRRR Next 48-hours

Like taking a paint brush and coloring the canvas with beautiful hues of blue and pink, my favorite maps (aside from precipitable water)

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Wind gusts do die down across the Great Lakes and Northeast \u2014 but we get a Pacific Northwest storm system that landfalls Washington/Oregon by Friday, and that\u2019s our next major storm system for the central U.S. \u2014> Midwest and Great Lakes for the weekend.

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Wind Gusts Next 48-hours | HRRR 18z

And, here\u2019s my favorite parameter showing the cold/dry air dumping into South Florida (again) as the Arctic cold front sweeps through the Gulf of Mexico.

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Precipitable Water Next 48-hours | HRRR 18z

Quick Aside to Show the Snowfall that\u2019s fallen so far this \u201cWinter Season\u201d since October 1, 2025

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Lower 48 precipitation type + MSLP for the next 6-days | ECMWF 18z

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Headlines Wednesday Evening

  1. Colder air behind strong Great Lakes storm system \u2014> Lake Effect Snow Machine cranks up for Thurs-Sat \u2014 from Michigan into the Northeast.

  2. Storm watch (confirmed): ECMWF 18z shows another storm system quickly tracking from the Pacific Northwest (Washington) across the northern Rockies \u2014> then into the Great Lakes. This storm track puts ANOTHER stripe of heavy snow across Iowa and Chicago for travel this weekend.

  3. STILL No change: The main \u201cpolar vortex\u201d load of very cold air will remain mostly locked up in Canada through the next 7-10 days. We continue to monitor the \u201clobes\u201d and polar vortex (PV) intrusion risk into the Lower 48 into December especially with a colder period in the 6-10 day range. But the coldest -50\u00b0C air at 500 mb remains bottled up \u2014 which isn\u2019t unexpected as the lower atmosphere impacts of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event and polar vortex split usually take 2-3 weeks to manifest (lag time)

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Lower 48 | Frontal Boundaries and storm systems this evening

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Storm #2 \u2014 Hit redial into this weekend!

RRFS-A Simulated Radar | Next 48 to 84-hours | Friday Evening to Sunday early morning

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NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 which won\u2019t include entire event of Storm #2 \u2014 see the RRFS-A data next + ECMWF 18z

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RRFS-A through 84-hours (Sunday 1 AM ET) | Snowfall totals

These map are beautiful \u2026 RRFS-A is a 3-km resolution model and my color table is perfect. Everything about these maps makes me happy.

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total (includes liquid from snow)

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Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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Details about MORE snow from the 2nd storm system are blurred/smoothed out by the Blend of Models, but let\u2019s just assume it\u2019s a repeat of our current potent storm system \u2014> we should hit the 2x multiplier and spin again!

Temperature Analysis | 7:45 PM ET

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Colder air coming into the Midwest and Great Lakes behind the cold front this evening

Temperature Anomaly | 7:45 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly was 0.1\u00b0F above normal

Thanksgiving Low Temperatures

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108 million below freezing or ~ 30% of the Lower 48 population

Thanksgiving High Temperatures

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Black Friday High Temperatures

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Saturday High Temperatures

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Sunday High Temperatures

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Medium Range \u2014> Day 10 Temperatures | 500 mb

New and fancy AI tools from NOAA (Google GraphCast training)

AI-GFS 18z | 500 mb Temperature | Next 10-days

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The 30\u00b0C isotherm at 500 mb is cold \u2014 definitely Arctic origin air with the polar front, and you can see the brief extrusions into the Lower 48 \u2026 however, the main/bulk of extremely cold air throughout the atmospheric column < -40\u00b0C and even -50\u00b0C at 500 mb is locked up around Hudson Bay and cannot dip all the way south (yet)

AI-GEFS 18z | 500 mb Temperature Ensemble Mean | Next 10-days

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Similar \u2014 smooth story from AI-GEFS ensemble mean \u2026 the main -40\u00b0C core of the PV can\u2019t break out of Hudson Bay anchor \u2014 but the minimum pushes -49\u00b0C in the ensemble mean (AI-GEFS) which is VERY impressive for early December.

Europe Weather Next 6-days

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Snowfall Next 6-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | 15-day Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly

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Coldest air compared to normal (and actual temperatures for that matter) spins over northern Siberia with only a piece moving into North America across the Arctic

MAJOR Cold pool formation underway into week 2 across Western Canada and Alaska

Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days ECMWF 12z

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IVT highlights atmospheric rivers of moisture in the atmosphere \u2014 and we typically look at the U.S. West Coast \u2026 but also works elsewhere, including the East Coast.

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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ECMWF 18z | Snowfall | Next 6-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 15-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 6\u201d | Next 15-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Nov 26 - Nov 30

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 1 - Dec 5

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 6 - Dec 10

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Atlantic Hurricane Season | All tracks | 15-days to December 11th

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Still a non-zero chance of \u201csomething\u201d in the far southern Caribbean, but we\u2019re talking < 6% or only 3 members out of 51. December tropical storms can happen, just very rare in the Atlantic.

Eastern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Activity

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Tropical Cyclone 04B (Seynar) | Rare low-latitude (3\u00b0N to 4\u00b0N) maintaining minimal TS intensity

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Typhoon Koto (33W) in the South China Sea is not expected to make landfall before weakening substantially

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Then watching Invest 96B for Cyclone development near Sri Lanka \u2014 heading north up the Indian coast \u2014> potential for a more impactful tropical cyclone into the weekend.

Ensemble Tracks \u2014 Next 3 days | All Cyclones | ECMWF EPS 12z

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HRRR 23z | Simulated Radar Next 18-hours into Noon on Thursday

Storm system finally moves away into Quebec but cold Canadian Arctic air spills in behind the cold front for the \u201cLake Effect Snow Machine\u201d phase of this storm event.

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