{ "number": 794, "headline": "November 19, 2025 Wednesday Evening", "standfirst": "Heavy rainfall centered on Texas into next week, then Canadian cold for Thanksgiving in Midwest", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-11-20", "published": "2025-11-20T02:23:57.716000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Good Evening! Welcome to subscribers and visitors! This is post number 793. Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue)

This evening: Significant thunderstorms with hail circulating through Arizona this evening including Phoenix.

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Earlier radar showed a massive hail storm with accumulating hail

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The unusual weather is related to just one in a sequence/parade of upper-level troughs that have broken off the main polar front from the Gulf of Alaska and spun down the California coast to meander into the U.S. Southwest.

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Lower 48 precipitation type + MSLP for the next 6-days | ECMWF 18z

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Europe precipitation type + MSLP for the next 6-days | ECMWF 18z

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Headlines Monday Evening | Similar Story as this morning

  1. A parade of shortwave troughs keep breaking off the main polar front situated in the Gulf of Alaska (\u2014> Rossby wave trough thinning) & spin down the West Coast. A surface circulation + cold air aloft = instability + Pacific moisture = mini-atmospheric river events for Southern California + thunderstorms in the Southwest \u2026

  2. These weak cut-off lows migrate into the Southwest and then east into the central Rockies \u2014 pulling up moisture out of the subtropics = rainfall for Southwest into Texas by early next week \u2014 really will add up = boatloads.

  3. Medium to long range: ongoing \u201cstratospheric warming event\u201d will see a wind split in the 10-50 mb level \u2026 but uncertainty about tropospheric polar vortex disruptions.

  4. Cold period centered upon Thanksgiving/Black Friday weekend with a dip in the jet stream \u2014 but the remaining \u201cfully loaded\u201d Arctic polar vortex may remain locked up in Canada (for now) into early December. We will wait for a trigger.

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Stratospheric Wind at 10 mb | ECMWF IFS Next 15-days

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Split type sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event \u2014 with dramatic warming / reversal of the equator / pole temperature gradient

Stratospheric Temperature Anomaly 10 mb | ECMWF EPS Next 15-days

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We\u2019ll see what impacts this SSW \u2014 perhaps record strong so early in the winter season / late Nov into early Dec \u2014 will have on the troposphere below \u2014 in the coming days/weeks after.

Temperature Anomaly | EPS 12z | Flagship Ensemble Mean

Cold pool formation over central Arctic Siberia is limited but eventually crosses the Arctic and connects to Canadian Arctic \u2026 still pretty early in winter, not as much deep snow cover, so we\u2019re just getting started.

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Animation that is the industry standard for monitoring cold air outbreaks: ECMWF EPS full-physics ensemble mean 2-meter temperature anomaly.

AI-GFS 18z | 500 mb Temperature | Next 10-days

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Into Days 7-9 \u2014> strong Midwest trough forms from a Pacific shortwave phasing with the Hudson Bay anchored tropospheric Polar Vortex, however the overall PV / polar front remains rather zonal/flat without a notable southward plunge = weaker and limited longevity.

AI-GEFS 18z | 500 mb Temperature Ensemble Mean | Next 10-days

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Similar pattern as AI-GFS \u2014 but as this is the ensemble mean, we are averaging 31 individual solutions with a negative anomaly in a slightly different location e.g. the trough axis might be faster/slower aligned with the pendulum anchor in Hudson Bay based upon timing.

ECMWF AIFS 18z | 500 mb Temperature | Next 15-days

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The 500 mb temperature field (middle troposphere) has become quite popular on my X feed as I\u2019ve shared quite a few animations of both North America and Europe.

The dark blue is about -25\u00b0C and represents Arctic origin air \u2014 shows up nicely within the main blobs over Canada, and the pieces that break off with \u201clobes\u201d as Rossby wave breaking or trough thinning sends little cut-off low circulations into the subtropics were they cause mischief!

This is a very promising upper-level patten with a \u201cblob\u201d of cold over central Canada just waiting for Pacific shortwaves to drag it south, however it remains largely locked up without a full dump.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | 500 mb Height Anomaly | Next 10-days

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There is a strong ridge over Alaska that needs to break down \u2014 influenced by Pacific that is a huge warming influence, limiting the cold pool formation over Alaska and NW Canada \u2014> so our reservoir of cold air will take a while to build \u2014 1-2 weeks.

Verdict: Thanksgiving beginning of colder air into the Midwest and Great Lakes but not a major Arctic blast \u2014 just a snack (maybe a yam) before we get the whole turkey (maybe) by the second week of December.

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HRRR Simulated Radar | Next 48-hours | Through Friday 1 PM

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Temperature Analysis | 8:00 PM ET

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Temperature Anomaly | 8:45AM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly was 3.5\u00b0F above normal

Low Temperatures Thursday

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49 million below freezing

High Temperatures Thursday

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High Temperatures on Friday

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HRRR Precipitation Next 48-hours + NWS NDFD 48-Hour Forecast

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NWS Snowfall Next 48-hours

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation and Snowfall Totals

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Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days ECMWF 12Z

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IVT highlights atmospheric rivers of moisture in the atmosphere \u2014 and we typically look at the U.S. West Coast \u2026 but also works elsewhere, including the East Coast.

ECMWF 18z | Snowfall | Next 6-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 15-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 1\u201d | Next 15-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 6\u201d | Next 15-days

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6\u201d is a good signal for a major winter storm \u2014 not seeing many of those through two weeks.

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Nov 19 - Nov 23

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Nov 24 - Nov 28

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Nov 29 - Dec 3

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Coldest air is loaded up across the northern Rockies \u2014 but as we saw in this morning\u2019s EPS grid, warmth returns across the Southeast.

Atlantic Ocean | 15-day Tropical Storm Tracks | ECMWF 12z

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A few tracks \u2014 including a hurricane in the Caribbean into early December \u2026 so the chance of a late season system is very small (< 10%) in accord with climatology, but not zero!

Australia | Tropical Storm Fina (05S) NNE of Darwin

Nearing hurricane intensity \u2014 and forecast to reach at least 70 knots prior to a first landfall near Darwin

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Friday HAFS-A

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Monday HAFS-A \u2014> stays over warm water and deepens to 950 mb \u2014> Cat 3-4

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", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

This evening: Significant thunderstorms with hail circulating through Arizona this evening including Phoenix.

Earlier radar showed a massive hail storm with accumulating hail

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