{ "number": 790, "headline": "November 15, 2025 Saturday Weather", "standfirst": "NOAA launches new A.I. weather models: AI-GFS and AI-GEFS", "desk": "revision", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-11-16", "published": "2025-11-16T00:37:43.074000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Good Evening! Welcome to subscribers and new readers! This is post number 789.

Starting with Lower 48 precipitation type + MSLP for the next 6-days!

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Headlines Saturday Evening

  1. West Coast atmospheric rivers around complicated storm systems \u2014> boatloads of rain for the state, especially in Southern California. HUGE rainfall totals into next week.

  2. Central U.S remains warm \u2014 and that trend continues for next 10-days, at least. The Eastern U.S. is mild except for the Northeast, which warms up later next week after ditching yet another trough.

  3. Central U.S. storm system with Gulf of Mexico moisture \u2014> severe weather threat

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Congratulations to the researchers at EPIC and the new management:

Friday, NOAA quietly launched two components of Project EAGLE into operations: AI-GFS and AI-GEFS based upon Google DeepMind GraphCast \u2014 and trained upon NOAA origin analysis (GDAS) \u2014 so we should expect different solutions than ECMWF AIFS and AIFS-ENS. The forecasts extend out 16-days and are spun up 4x per day.

AI-GFS data is operational (version 1.0) and managed 24/7 on the NOMADS data repository. The raw data files are completely available well prior to the full-physics GFS files e.g. 11:15 AM ET for the 12z suite. AI-GEFS follows up about 1-hour later with 31 members matching the initial perturbed conditions from the GEFSv12.

Yet more data for our global numerical weather prediction bucket \u2014 which requires significant post-processing in order to add value.

AI-GFS 18z | 500 mb Height Anomaly | Next 10-days

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The AI-GFS will be sharper after ~Days 6-7 compared to the ensemble mean of the AI-GEFS output. The ensemble mean is a statistical field that averages the individual members. Reminder, it is not a member of the ensemble itself.

AI-GEFS 18z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Ensemble Mean | Next 10-days

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In general, here on this platform, I\u2019m going to defer to the ECMWF suite of guidance mainly because I do not know how skillful or added benefit/value of AI-GFS/AI-GEFS at this time. Efforting on that front. I was able to secure the valuable https://x.com/weathertrader account on X.

500 mb Temperature | Mapping the Tropospheric Polar Vortex

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The 500 mb temperature field (middle troposphere) has become quite popular on my X feed as I\u2019ve shared quite a few animations of both North America and Europe.

The dark blue is about -25\u00b0C and represents Arctic origin air \u2014 shows up nicely within the main blobs over Canada, and the pieces that break off with \u201clobes\u201d as Rossby wave breaking or trough thinning sends little cut-off low circulations into the subtropics were they cause mischief! .

Europe \u2014> Polar Vortex Event \u2014 Impressive!

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Seeing the -40\u00b0C temperatures enveloping Scandinavia but then a major Arctic blast sinks through Western Europe to North Africa with the -30\u00b0C contour scouring the western Mediterranean. Impressive for mid-November.

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Coldest by Friday but not necessarily a lot of snowfall

I will do more European weather updates going forward.

Back to the Lower 48 | This Evening\u2019s Frontal Boundaries

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Storm system continues to spin across California \u2014 with yet another cut-off low ready to spin southward to take its place. Storm system across Northeast will spin through into Sunday morning, and leftover colder air = Lake Effect snow showers.

HRRR Simulated Radar | Next 48-hours | Through Monday Afternoon

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HRRR Snowfall | Next 48-hours | Through Monday Afternoon

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Quite the paint brush of snowfall across Quebec, but also coming off the Great Lakes \u2014 what a spectacle for Nov 16-17, already shoveling heavy, wet snow.

HRRR Precipitation | Next 48-hours | Through Monday Afternoon

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Amazing period of onshore flow + atmospheric rivers = boatloads of rainfall continuing into early week

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Total Rainfall | NOAA WPC | Next 7-days

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Texas: 7.2 Trillion gallons of rainfall in next 7-days. Arkansas: 3.6T. Florida: 0.03T

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Widespread California rainfall \u2014 another 6.4 trillion gallons forecast during next 7-days out of a Lower 48 total of 51.5 trillion gallons.

Temperature Analysis | 6:00 PM ET

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Chilly across New England \u2026 below freezing for 1.3 million population

Temperature Anomaly | 6:00 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly was HUGE 11.9\u00b0F above normal

ECMWF Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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My favorite parameter! Complicated mess of circulations off U.S. West Coast will continue to send atmospheric rivers into California.

Gulf of Mexico moisture plume activated by approaching cut-off low and surface storm system developing in Texas and Central Plains \u2014> Severe Weather Event Thursday-Friday.

Cold, dry air continues to sideswipe the Northeast with reinforced troughing.

Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days ECMWF 12Z

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IVT highlights atmospheric rivers of moisture in the atmosphere \u2014 and we typically look at the U.S. West Coast \u2026 but also works elsewhere, including the East Coast.

Huge influx of moisture into Texas/South from the Gulf of Mexico into middle of next week \u2014 showing up on the precipitation total maps (earlier) \u2014 maybe setting the stage for a coastal storm off the Northeast in the Day 10 range \u2026

ECMWF AIFS 12z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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Quite the major trough intensifies over the Northeast into Mon/Tues before finally weakening and giving way to ridging from the west \u2014 warming temperatures.

The cut-offs along the West Coast are repetitive \u2014 and as they slide eastward through the Southwest into Texas \u2014 provide cyclonic flow to bring up warmer, moister air out of the Gulf of Mexico.

ECMWF 18z | Snowfall | Next 6-days

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Nice to see healthy snowfall into the Rockies including Colorado and Wyoming for the skiers.

ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 15-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 3\u201d | Next 15-days

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Total for the next 15-days from the flagship ECMWF ensemble model shows nationwide snowfall but still lacking a major East Coast Nor\u2019easter

Total Precipitation | Median of Ensembles Next 15-days

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Florida = dry while the central U.S. from Texas into the Ohio Valley = wet pattern, but also warm

Sunday Morning Lows

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17million below freezing or about 10% of the U.S. population

High Temperatures Sunday

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High Temperatures Monday

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NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

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HUGE rainfall totals in California from atmospheric rivers

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation and Snowfall Totals

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5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Nov 15 - Nov 19

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Nov 20 - Nov 24

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Nov 25 - Nov 29

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Widespread warmth overtakes the entire Eastern U.S. into Thanksgiving? Western U.S. goes cold \u2014 great new for the ski resorts \u2014 potential for extreme cold increasing.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Statistics | November 15, 2025

Nothing brewing in the next 7-days \u2014> November 20th according to NHC. Not seeing anything in the ensembles through Nov 26th \u2014 high likelihood that the 2025 season is complete, ending with Melissa.

2025 Hurricane Season [Day 168]. My FORECAST for this year was 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (near average)

2025 Season to Date: 13 Named Storms, 5 Hurricanes, and 4 Majors, and 3 Category 5\u2019s | Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) = 135.5

Atlantic Basin | IR Satellite

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8-Day Tropical Outlook \u2014> ECMWF EPS 12z | Active Tracks

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Interesting subtropical lows SE of Bermuda \u2014 worth watching as a piece of the Polar Vortex well to the north is pinched off as a cut-off low, and then circulates clockwise around the basin. Low, low chances, but not zero!

All tracks thru 15-days: November 30th \u2014 end of the road \u2014> QUIET

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Nothing brewing in the 2-week ensemble tracking \u2014> dead quiet. We\u2019d look at the far southern Caribbean, but not seeing anything.

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Starting with Lower 48 precipitation type + MSLP for the next 6-days!

Headlines Saturday Evening

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