{ "number": 787, "headline": "November 11, 2025 Tuesday Morning Weather", "standfirst": "Record cold Tuesday morning across Southeast including Florida", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-11-11", "published": "2025-11-11T15:50:10.103000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Good Morning! Welcome to new subscribers and readers! This is post number 786.

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Headlines Tuesday morning

  1. [Historic] Arctic blast with a very sharp upper-level tropospheric \u201cpolar vortex\u201d anomaly dipping into the U.S. Southeast with the most extreme cold (compared to normal) sinking through all of Florida into morning [falling iguana alert]. \\

  2. Atmospheric river system will impact California with heavy rainfall

  3. Significant warming trend \u2014 western moisture/warmth moves eastward to replace this frigid Canadian Arctic air mass with more reasonable/seasonable mid-November temperatures. The Northeast might be slowest to see \u201cwarmth\u201d as backdoor troughs downstream of the ridge may linger or reinforce.

Historic maps at 500 mb | 06z

-41\u00b0C to -42\u00b0C at 500 mb centered over North Carolina is incredible even for mid-winter and it\u2019s only November 11th. This is the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane rarity, or even more unusual, actually.

Wind gusts at surface quite strong as the cold front blasted through entire Gulf of Mexico and into Central America / Caribbean.

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Jet Stream winds show a very sharp dip with the axis touching Florida \u2014 with high thin cirrus clouds streaming across the frigid Sunshine State

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Earlier Temperatures at 7 AM ET

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Mainly 20s across the Eastern U.S. with 163 million freezing at this snapshot hour.

Florida Historic Cold Weather \u2026 note the over land fetch of wind gusts perfectly aligned to avoid the warmth of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic.

Dew points were in the upper-10s

Orlando Observations

The cold of 37\u00b0F in Orlando was a record low by 2\u00b0F but not necessarily the earliest/coldest as that would be Nov 1, 1993 (37\u00b0F tie)

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Threaded Records from Orlando | Minimums (Period of Record: Since 1892)

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Reference for November 1, 1993 Lows | 81% of Lower 48 below freezing

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This Morning\u2019s Frontal Boundaries

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Morning Satellite shows the cloud streets from the very cold air going over the much warmer ocean waters \u2014 that will extract significant heat and cool the SSTs

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Short Term | HRRR forecasts next 48-hours into 7 AM ET Thursday

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Continued light snowfall across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the next couple days. Then, a storm system comes into the West Coast on Thursday.

ECMWF Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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My favorite parameter! Note the black/gray/white coming out of the Canadian Arctic = cold and dry air \u2014 crashes through the Gulf of Mexico AND south Florida. Indeed, the shape of the precipitable water dry plume = Florida peninsula Tuesday morning with perfect NNW flow bringing the entirety of the cold/dry plume south.

More southerly flow will moisten the central U.S. until another Canadian cold front this weekend, but thankfully not as cold.

Storm system into Thursday \u2014 atmospheric river from the WSW impacts central California coastline, and then becomes a cut-off low across the U.S. Southwest

West Coast Atmospheric River

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Complicated series of storm systems + cut-off lows combine to send boatloads of moisture into central California \u2014 definitely no drought indicators this Fall so far!

Precipitation Type + MSLP Next 6-days

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Little clipper system this weekend for the Great Lakes (rain) and some snowfall for the Northeast \u2014 mainly northern New England as this juncture in the forecast.

Cut-off low heads into Southern California and Arizona \u2014> wet pattern!

Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days ECMWF 00Z

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IVT highlights atmospheric rivers of moisture in the atmosphere \u2014 and we typically look at the U.S. West Coast \u2026 but also works elsewhere, including the East Coast. Not seeing any huge storms on the horizon for the next 10-days in terms of Nor\u2019easters.

ECMWF AIFS 06z Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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Main weather story for the West Coast is a slow-moving series of troughs that evolve into cut-off lows \u2014 and that flow out of the subtropical Pacific \u2014> huge moisture into the Southwest and then eastward in Texas.

Ridging over central U.S. will mean warmth

Unfortunately, a series of strong troughs set up across the Northeast and warming is abated, stunted.

November 2025 Winter Sign Up promotion for new subscribers (ends today). You were given quite a warning of the cold weather \u2014 and knew it about days before TV weather or corporate media caught up.

Get 25% off forever

ECMWF EPS Ensemble Mean 06z | Snowfall | Next 6-days

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Global model \u2014 flagship from ECMWF shows a promising return of Sierra Snowfall.

ECMWF EPS 00z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 10-days

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ECMWF EPS 00z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 3\u201d | Next 10-days

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Total for the next 10-days from the flagship ECMWF ensemble model shows nationwide snowfall but still lacking a major East Coast Nor\u2019easter

Temperature Analysis | 10:15 AM ET

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Temperature Anomaly | 10:15 AM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly was -3.5\u00b0F below normal

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Florida pushing 31\u00b0F below normal (coldest) at 10:00 AM ET. Amazing

High Temperatures Tuesday

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Very nice across the central U.S. and front range of the Rockies \u2026 and very warm out west including California into the upper-70s in the Bay Area.

Chilly across the Eastern U.S.

Some moderation into the afternoon as the cold air mass can\u2019t survive long against the still warm sunshine and long enough days on November 11th.

Wednesday Morning Lows

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67 million below freezing \u2014 significantly less than Tuesday morning

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Still COLD across Florida (freezing from Gainesville north up I-75)

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High Temperatures Wednesday

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Moderation into the afternoon as the cold air mass can\u2019t survive long against the still warm sunshine and long enough days on November 11th.

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

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Nice rainfall totals from storm system / atmospheric river

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

Blend of Models | 10 Day Precipitation Totals

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Whoa \u2014 that\u2019s a lot of rainfall for unusual location of Phoenix, Arizona \u2026 and then heavy > 4-5\u201d centered on the lower Mississippi River Valley and eastern Texas + Arkansas.

Blend of Models | 10 Day Snowfall Totals

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5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Nov 11 - Nov 15

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Nov 16 - Nov 20

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Major Warming Trend for following 10-days after this \u201cArctic Blast\u201d for the central U.S. but New England remains cool (!)

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Nov 21 - Nov 25

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Widespread warmth overtakes the entire Eastern U.S. into Thanksgiving?

Atlantic Hurricane Season Statistics | November 11, 2025

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Nothing brewing in the next 7-days \u2014> November 18th according to NHC.

2025 Hurricane Season [Day 164]. My FORECAST for this year was 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (near average)

2025 Season to Date: 13 Named Storms, 5 Hurricanes, and 4 Majors, and 3 Category 5\u2019s | Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) = 135.5

Atlantic Basin Water Vapor and IR Satellite

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Tropical Surface Analysis | 06z

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15-Day Tropical Outlook \u2014> ECMWF AIFS-ENS 06z | All Tracks

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Nothing brewing in the 2-week ensemble tracking \u2014> dead quiet. We\u2019d look in the Caribbean.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

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Headlines Tuesday morning

[Historic] Arctic blast with a very sharp upper-level tropospheric \u201cpolar vortex\u201d anomaly dipping into the U.S. Southeast with the most extreme cold (compared to normal) sinking through all of Florida into morning [falling iguana alert]. \\

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