{ "number": 780, "headline": "November 3, 2025 Monday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Warming trend through the week before Arctic blast", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-11-03", "published": "2025-11-03T15:06:41.157000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Good Morning! This is post 779 from Dr. Ryan Maue.

Generally quiet across the Lower 48 this morning, and that should continue this week. However, much colder air is ready to dump out of Canada across the Lower 48 this weekend and early next week with chance of a freeze into Southeast Mon/Tues morning including Atlanta.

Headlines Monday Morning

  1. Bomb Cyclone to Impact Newfoundland with 943 mb central pressure

  2. Atmospheric river parade for the West Coast

  3. Arctic blast this weekend \u2014 early next week (coldest air of season) with Lake Effect snow potential

  4. Typhoon Kalmaegi to travel through Philippines \u2014 emerge into South China Sea and intensify significantly prior to landfall due west into Vietnam

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Clearing skies for much of the central U.S. into the Great Lakes behind a cold front \u2026 and the Southeast clears out and warms up after a period of gloomy, wet weather

An area of low pressure off the Carolinas will become a powerful \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d crashing into Newfoundland with hurricane force wind gusts.

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ECMWF Snowfall Next 15-days

\"\"

A cool animation to get us into the winter mood \u2014 with snowfall accumulation through the next 15-days across North America.

Tons of snow for the Hudson Bay and into Ontario and Quebec. Cold air out of Canada will dump into the Great Lakes and Northeast starting this weekend \u2014> Lake Effect snowfall machine cranks up!

Early Next Major Arctic Blast

Strong \u201cpolar vortex\u201d trough in the middle-levels + surface high pressure = typical setup for an Canadian Arctic Blast of cold air with low temperatures 10\u00b0F to 15\u00b0F below normal by Tuesday morning \u2026 balanced with significant warmth across the Rockies and Western U.S. with Pacific influenced air masses.

Tuesday Morning Temperature Anomaly

\"\"

Temperature Analysis | 8:45 AM ET

\"\"

The Lower 48 average temperature is 42.0\u00b0F this morning

Temperature Anomaly | 8:45 AM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly was -1.1\u00b0F below normal

High Temperatures Monday

\"\"

Not too bad \u2014 with 60s into the central Plains, Chicago, and up I-95 from D.C. to NYC and Boston.

Low Temperatures Tuesday Morning

\"\"

Lower 48 average low temperature is 40.6\u00b0F with only 2 million population freezing.

High Temperatures on Tuesday

\"\"

A bit warmer for Tuesday with widespread 70s building across the Plains and returning to the Southeast

High Temperatures Next 8-days \u2014> Through Next Tuesday

\"\"

The warming trend continues through the weekend until the major Canadian Arctic cold front erases the warmth across the Eastern U.S.

Large Scale View of Precipitation Type Next 10-days

\"\"

Multiple atmospheric rivers landfall the west coast of the U.S. attached to low pressure systems in the Gulf of Alaska. Some of the moisture streams across the Rockies into the Midwest and Great Lakes \u2026 and if it can combine with the coldest air + surface low development = snowfall potential from \u201cClipper Systems\u201d + Lake Effect snowfall.

ECMWF 850 mb Winds Next 6-days

\"\"

Great depiction of the two \u201cbomb cyclones\u201d that develop off the East Coast this week \u2026 and the wind energy with the atmospheric rivers into the West Coast.

ECMWF Precipitable Water Next 6-days

\"\"

My favorite parameter! Note the black/gray/white coming out of the Canadian Arctic = cold and dry air. Impressive PWAT with western atmospheric rivers \u2026 1.5\u201d+ values.

Powerful Atlantic Bomb Cyclone

Wednesday: 944 mb central pressure ENE of Canada

Wind Gusts = 100-knots just off southern coast

\"\"

Serpentine wrap up of the \u201cwarm seclusion\u201d center of cyclone = will be beautiful on satellite imagery with an eye-like feature

\"\"

Thickness \u2014 Note the \u201cwarm core\u201d (!) which is actually warm sector air that has been trapped or secluded by the bent-back warm front

\"\"

Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days

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ECMWF AIFS 06z Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

\"\"

Very impressive trough across the Great Lakes \u2014> Northeast forms this weekend and intensifies into early next week!

Blend of Models | 10 Day Precipitation Totals

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Blend of Models | 10 Day Snowfall Totals

\"\"

Lake Effect snowfall snowing up in the 10-day maps

\"\"

Mountain snows at highest elevations

\"\"

Weekly Temperature Anomaly | Nov 3 - Nov 9

\"\"

Weekly Temperature Anomaly | Nov 10 - Nov 16

\"\"

Significant warming trend across the Western U.S. with 7\u00b0F warm anomaly in the Week 2 ensemble mean west of the Mississippi

Cold \u2014 trough showing up strongly in the Week 2 anomaly across the East centered upon New England (-4\u00b0F)

Atlantic Hurricane Season Statistics | November 3, 2025

\"\"

2025 Hurricane Season [Day 156]. My FORECAST for this year was 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (near average)

2025 Season to Date: 13 Named Storms, 5 Hurricanes, and 4 Majors, and 3 Category 5\u2019s | Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) = 135.5

Atlantic Basin Water Vapor

Atlantic tropics are mostly shut down with a MAJOR trough cutting into South America through the MDR signaling the end of any chance seeing tropical waves develop out here.

\"\"

Instead, we\u2019ll keep an eye on the southern Caribbean near Central America for any convection to spin-up in the long-range. Nothing on the horizon through at least 14 days.

14-Day Tropical Outlook \u2014> ECMWF EPS 00z | Active Tracks

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West Pacific Typhoon Outlook

\"\"

Typhoon Kalmaegi (31W) nearing major hurricane strength (Category 3) with 90-knot winds, but the eye has not emerged. It\u2019s within a small but intense convective canopy.

\"\"

Kalmaegi may weaken slightly due to land interaction across central Philippines but may become Cat 3-4 again by Thursday and landfall in Vietnam

\"\"

HAFS-A | 960s mb central pressure \u2014> currently

\"\"

HAFS-A | 945 mb in 72-hours on approach to Vietnam on Thursday

\"\"

Google Deep Mind overestimated the potential for Rapid Intensification from Kalmaegi \u2026 but seems to have recentered the ensemble distribution on 930s to 940s minimum central pressure, more realistic.

\"\"

ECMWF EPS 00z (9-km) ensembles also show \u201cmajor typhoon\u201d intensity on average.

\"\"

After Kalmaegi, another Typhoon (Invest 90W) will follow on a WNW track, and this one looks quite likely to become a Category 5.

\"\"

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

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Generally quiet across the Lower 48 this morning, and that should continue this week. However, much colder air is ready to dump out of Canada across the Lower 48 this weekend and early next week with chance of a freeze into Southeast Mon/Tues morning including Atlanta.

Headlines Monday Morning

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