{ "number": 779, "headline": "November 1, 2025 Saturday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Powerful extratropical cyclones to develop well away from Northeast next week", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-11-01", "published": "2025-11-01T23:35:52.153000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Good Evening! This is post 778 from Dr. Ryan Maue.

We flipped the calendar into November and mentally we can move into more of an early winter mindset with much colder air especially in the mornings across the Lower 48. Temperatures this evening are only in the 40s across the Midwest into Missouri and 50s and 60s in the Southeast.

With Daylight Saving Time beginning overnight, we\u2019ll get the weather models an hour earlier e.g. GFS 12z starts at 10:45 AM and ECMWF 12z is generally available around 1 PM ET. Of course, UTC doesn\u2019t change.

Temperature Analysis | 6:45 PM ET

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The Lower 48 average temperature is 56.6\u00b0F \u2026 and still a million people above 90\u00b0F on November 1st.

Temperature Anomaly | 6:45 PM ET

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Large Scale View of Precipitation Type Next 10-days

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Overall, the weather patterns across North America shows many storms progressing along the mid-latitude storm tracks. The more intense storm systems occur over the oceans where lower friction and more moisture allows coupling with the strong jet stream to produce energy through baroclinic instability. That\u2019s a fancy of way of saying conversion of potential energy in the atmosphere to kinetic energy with the help of latent heat release from convection.

Some hints of \u201cblue\u201d or snowfall showing up on the backside of the strongest low pressure systems but not quite cold enough to power blizzards. But, we\u2019re quickly getting there \u2014 another 2-3 weeks and these storm systems will be snowmakers. The main/major question is where the overall storm track sets up: for Nor\u2019easters, the troughs needs to dig into the Midwest and Ohio River Valley w/surface lows on the periphery positioned to couple to the jet stream, take advantage of copious Atlantic Ocean moisture, and \u201cbomb out\u201d into 940 to 960 mb lows.

We\u2019ll have 2 of these \u201cbomb cyclones\u201d in the next week, but NOT snowmakers for the Northeast \u2014 not cold enough.

Precipitable Water Next 5-days | Germany ICON

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Major features: bomb cyclones off the East Coast of the U.S. and atmospheric rivers into the West Coast.

850 hPa Wind | Next 5-days | Germany ICON

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Powerful Atlantic Bomb Cyclones

Wednesday: 943 mb central pressure ENE of Canada

Thursday: 970s mb & intensifying in the Gulf of Maine

Each of these storms will develop hurricane force winds but mostly avoid major impacts to land. Most of the powerful mid-latitude cyclone traverse the open oceans and only bother shipping and mix fish with huge waves during their 3-5 day lifecycles.

Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days

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Atlantic Hurricane Season Statistics | November 1, 2025

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Atlantic tropics are mostly shut down with a MAJOR trough cutting into South America through the MDR signaling the end of any chance seeing tropical waves develop out here.

Instead, we\u2019ll keep an eye on the southern Caribbean near Central America for any convection to spin-up in the long-range. Nothing on the horizon through 7-14 days.

2025 Hurricane Season [Day 154]. My FORECAST for this year was 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (near average)

2025 Season to Date: 13 Named Storms, 5 Hurricanes, and 4 Majors, and 3 Category 5\u2019s | Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) = 135.5

ECMWF AIFS 12z Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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The ridging across the Lower 48 is brief but strongest across the Western U.S. with Pacific influence \u2014 warmer air with these atmospheric river systems, which have origin in the subtropics = shut down Rocky Mountain snowfall through at least 10-days.

The sequence of troughs dipping into the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley into mid-November would be a wonderful signal for winter weather lovers \u2014 positioned nicely for Nor\u2019easters!

NWS Rainfall Next 72-hours

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Blend of Models | 7 Day Precipitation Totals

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Heavy rainfall for the West Coast through 7-days from atmospheric river systems

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Even an inch or more of rain into San Francisco Bay Area

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Blend of Models | 7 Day Snowfall Totals

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ECMWF Snowfall 12z | Next 14-Days

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Into November 15th \u2014 snowfall returns to the Rockies \u2014 and seeing Lake Effect snow in the Great Lakes (!) which would be quite early in the season!

Low Temperatures Sunday Morning

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Lower 48 average low temperature is 38.4\u00b0F with 33 million population freezing.

High Temperatures on Sunday

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Lower 48 average high temperature is warmer at 62\u00b0F with the only heat remaining in the Southwest, and 80s in South Florida.

Weekly Temperature Anomaly | Nov 1 - Nov 7

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Weekly Temperature Anomaly | Nov 8 - Nov 14

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Significant warming trend across the Western U.S. with 7\u00b0F warm anomaly in the Week 2 ensemble mean west of the Mississippi

14-Day Tropical Outlook \u2014> ECMWF EPS 12z | Active Tracks

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1 track out of the 51 ensemble members = 2% chance of one more named tropical system through November 15 \u2014 Tiny chance, but not zero!

West Pacific Typhoon Outlook

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22:00Z (November 1) visible imagery

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Potential for Rapid Intensification of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi into a powerful typhoon prior to moving through Philippines at a low latitude ~11\u00b0N missing the mountainous terrain of Luzon.

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A small inner core this morning (out there) could be ripe for rapid intensification.

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HAFS-A 12z showed 970 mb central pressure \u2014 so perhaps Category 2, but a very small system.

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Google Deep Mind Members show a Super Typhoon \u2014 Category 5 with many members in the next 48-60 hours \u2014 not sure about this, but we\u2019ll monitor.

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After Kalmaegi, another Typhoon will follow on a WNW track, and this one looks highly likely to become a Category 5.

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

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We flipped the calendar into November and mentally we can move into more of an early winter mindset with much colder air especially in the mornings across the Lower 48. Temperatures this evening are only in the 40s across the Midwest into Missouri and 50s and 60s in the Southeast.

With Daylight Saving Time beginning overnight, we\u2019ll get the weather models an hour earlier e.g. GFS 12z starts at 10:45 AM and ECMWF 12z is generally available around 1 PM ET. Of course, UTC doesn\u2019t change.

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