{ "number": 773, "headline": "October 24, 2025 Friday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Melissa nearing hurricane intensity on way to Category 5", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-10-25", "published": "2025-10-25T00:16:32.955000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Good Evening! This is post 771 in this newsletter\u2019s 2-year history from Dr. Ryan Maue. Bit of a holding pattern for Tropical Storm Melissa until the inner-core is established and rapid intensification gets underway. However, once the ball starts rolling, the rate of pressure fall could be explosive \u2014 and we could go from Category 1 to Category 5 in 24 to 36 hours.

Basin scale IR satellite Imagery shows an asymmetric blob in the Caribbean with some parasitic convection off to the south and to the northwest. Not too impressive \u2014 yet.

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HAFS-A Inner Core | Track and Intensity

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Melissa deepens to Category 5 \u2014 pressure in the 910s mb and parallels Jamaica to the south before taking a right turn and making landfall along the southern face of the island. The westward track would push enormous surge into Kingston, unfortunately.

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NHC 8 PM Forecast Track + Cone | 993 mb | 65 mph Winds

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NHC Discussion Highlights | Track

NHC Discussion Highlights | Intensity very close to Category 5

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Current IR Satellite | Tropical Storm Melissa

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Deep convection near the center continues to bubble up \u2014 over very warm water. We don\u2019t see an eye or inner-core quite yet, but it\u2019s only a matter of time < 24 hours perhaps.

Ocean Surface Temperatures are 29\u00b0C + in Caribbean around Jamaica

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ECMWF AIFS 12z Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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A strong trough drops out of the Rockies from the Pacific Northwest and arrives into the Southeast U.S. just in time to protect the U.S. East Coast from any impacts from Melissa. Not seeing any scenarios where/how Melissa is captured or comes close to the US \u2014 good news.

Atlantic Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-Days | 12z ECMWF

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The flagship 12z solution extends here into Day 10 shows a monster Hurricane Melissa spinning over the very warm western Caribbean before sprinting across eastern Cuba into the open Atlantic. Bermuda could be directly impacted.

Precipitable Water Forecast | Next 6-days

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The East Coast will still see unsettled weather related to the upper-level troughs \u2014 but thankfully the threat of a strong Nor\u2019easter have decreased. Instead, a larger but still impactful weather system will bring a strong cold front through the Southeast into middle of next week.

Blend of Models | 7 Day Precipitation Totals

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Low Temperatures Saturday Morning

High Temperatures on Saturday

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High Temperatures on Sunday

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Atlantic Basin Outlook | 8 PM ET Update

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2025 Hurricane Season [Day 146]. My FORECAST for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (near average)

2025 Season to Date: 13 Named Storms, 4 Hurricanes, and 3 Majors | ACE = 103

ATCF Spaghetti | Melissa 13L

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Of course GFS remains on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, but it has finally abandoned a track over Hispaniola. Dreadful performance from NOAA\u2019s flagship global model.

Previous 14 HCCA Consensus Track Forecasts | Through 7 Days

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This is the putative \u201canswer key\u201d along with the ECMWF EPS and Google Deep Mind \u2014 and has been performing VERY well. Most recent iteration turns northward into central Jamaica.

If the track continues to trend eastward, then we could become very concerned about a direct landfall into Kingston.

Google Deep Mind Forecast Tracks | Melissa 13L

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50-members from this A.I. trained system \u2014 almost ALL showing a major to Category 5 hurricane. I added the ensemble mean.

ECMWF 12z EPS Internal Tracker | Melissa 13L

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Summary:

All systems go for rapid intensification \u2014> Melissa to Category 5 with a westward track. Uncertainty about the timing of the turn northward in Jamaica.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook | 8 PM ET

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Tropical Depression 18E will become Tropical Storm Sonia.

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Ryan in 2025: a kid in a candy store with so many advanced tools, techniques, models and maps to investigate the progress and forecast of Tropical Storm Melissa. I\u2019ve been watching hurricanes and models for over 20-years \u2014 and watched the evolution of our world\u2019s models \u2014 so much improved!

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Basin scale IR satellite Imagery shows an asymmetric blob in the Caribbean with some parasitic convection off to the south and to the northwest. Not too impressive \u2014 yet.

Melissa deepens to Category 5 \u2014 pressure in the 910s mb and parallels Jamaica to the south before taking a right turn and making landfall along the southern face of the island. The westward track would push enormous surge into Kingston, unfortunately.

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