{ "number": 764, "headline": "October 14, 2025 Tuesday Afternoon Weather", "standfirst": "Strong North Pacific jet amplifies Lower 48 weather pattern for next week", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-10-14", "published": "2025-10-14T19:56:04.179000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "

2025 Hurricane Season [Day 135]. My FORECAST for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (near average)

2025 Season to Date: 12 Named Storms, 4 Hurricanes, and 3 Majors | ACE = 100

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Good Afternoon! This is post 763 in this newsletter\u2019s 2-year history from Dr. Ryan Maue.

Winter is approaching, and we\u2019ll be transitioning to coverage of cold and snow.

North Pacific Wave Train next 8-days | 850 hPa Wind

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All aboard! Multiple sequential \u201churricane force\u201d extratropical cyclones \u201cbombing\u201d out in the Aleutians and then decaying over Alaska or the Gulf of Alaska. The typical extratropical cyclone forms as a shallow frontal wave NE of Japan and then phases with the upper-level jet stream often \u201crapidly intensifying\u201d with central pressures from the 930s to 960s mb. The entire lifecycle is 3-5 days, but may last longer if the mature or occluded stage becomes stationary or cuts off from the main storm track.

The result of these storms = atmospheric rivers into Alaska, Northwest Canada, and down the U.S. West coast into California = bountiful snowfall at high elevations and boatloads of rainfall near sea level. We\u2019ll that in the \u201cIntegrated Vapor Transport\u201d maps. The North Pacific jet screams along zonally even over 200 knots to the Dateline into next week.

North Pacific Jet Stream +7 Days > 205 knots

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Water Vapor Loop (middle level)

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The sharp trough that cut along the Eastern U.S. this weekend has retrograded into the far southern Gulf of Mexico.. A reinforcing shot of mid-level very dry air has arrived in the Southeast wiping out cloud cover.

A small but potent storm is currently spinning over California. Brilliant sunshine and warm temperatures in the 80s from Texas to Florida.

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California Storm: coastal rainfall and heavy mountain snow

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HRRR Next 18-hours Simulated Radar

North America Precipitable Water next 8-Days

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Overview of the continent: Next 8-days

  1. A series of weak/moderate atmospheric rivers descend the west coast from WA/OR into California for a great start to the 2025-26 Water Year as a strong jet stream from North Pacific \u201cwave train\u201d sends repeated \u201churricane force\u201d cyclones into the Aleutian Low region.

  2. Weekend storm system for the central U.S. moves into Canada by Saturday and deepens to around 980 mb central pressure. Another storm then develops in the Great Lakes into Sunday \u2014 not quite cold enough for snowfall.

  3. Could be severe weather along the tail end of the cold fronts with these central U.S. weather systems.

  4. Cool, dry Canadian air blasts through the Lower 48 behind these powerful storms this weekend and next week

  5. Atlantic tropics: Tropical Storm Lorenzo is a mess \u2014 sheared and poorly organized.

Look Ahead: Precipitation Type + MSLP | Next 10-days

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Current Temperature | RTMA 2:45 PM ET

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Only 0.01 Million at/above 90\u00b0F but at least 87 million in the 80s.

Current Temperature Anomaly | RTMA 2:45 PM ET

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Lower 48 is a +0.2\u00b0F above normal with California quite chilly

Low Temperatures Wednesday Morning

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Lower 48 average low temperature of 48.0\u00b0F

High Temperatures on Wednesday

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Lower 48 average temperature of 68\u00b0F \u2026 with 90s in Texas buy only 7 Million population.

Weekly Temperature Anomaly | Days 1-7 | ECMWF 12z EPS

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Weekly Temperature Anomaly | Days 8-14 | ECMWF 12z EPS

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ECMWF Next 10-Days Integrated Vapor Transport | 12z cycle

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Blend of Models 7-Day Precipitation through early next Tuesday

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Snowfall Next 7-days | Blend of Models

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Medium Range | AIFS 12z | 10-days Height Anomaly

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The idea of central U.S. ridging is history into this weekend as a parade of troughs rolls through the Lower 48 with assist from the North Pacific wave train

Atlantic Basin Outlook | 2 PM ET Update

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Tropical Storm Lorenzo (12L)

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45 mph winds \u2014 poorly organized \u2014 and not expected to intensify further until dissipation. Lorenzo did help the Atlantic ACE hit 100 for the 2025 season.

ATCF Spaghetti shows a clockwise loop through 7-days

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Central Atlantic IR + Water Vapor Satellite Images

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Scattered convection with tropical waves \u2014 with Lorenzo difficult to pick out of the basin.

Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days

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A tropical wave currently off the coast of Africa in the far eastern Atlantic will travel westward and could find more favorable environment conditions for development in the Caribbean in 8-10 days.

NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 12z

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Atlantic Tropical Waves = 3 + TS Lorenzo mixed in

ECMWF EPS 12z | All Storm Tracks Day 7

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A few members develop the tropical wave into the Caribbean by Day 7 \u2014 less than 5%

ECMWF EPS 12z | Active Storm Tracks Day 12

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Quite a few more show development into Day 12 \u2026 over the very warm waters of the Caribbean. About 50%

ECMWF EPS 12z | Active Storm Tracks Day 15

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Majority of ensemble members develop the tropical wave \u2014 eventually and create a powerful hurricane into late October.

The Caribbean is a favored region, of course, so we will keep a very close eye for the next several days to see how this trends.

AIFS ENS at Day 12 Comparison | Active Storm Tracks

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Weaker signal for a tropical storm or hurricane in the Caribbean than the conventional full-physics ensemble suite.

GFS 12z Massive Category 5 Hurricane

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No surprise that GFS would blow up this tropical wave into a Cat 5 \u2014 way down the line at Day 15 \u2014 over the forecast predictability horizon. You\u2019ll probably see this bad boy on social media \u2014 until it disappears.

NOAA GEFS 12z (31-members) | Through 10-days

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Active Caribbean from 12z GEFS

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook | 2 PM ET

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Again watching the immediate coast of Mexico for a new (weak) tropical storm later in the week. However, there is a complete void of convection across the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough / ITCZ this evening.

Next name in the basin = Sonia

Western Pacific Typhoon Season

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Post-tropical Typhoon Nakri (29W) will head into the North Pacific and join a very active wave train with multiple hurricane force extratropical cyclones lining up in a parade in the coming 1-2 weeks.

Thanks for reading Weather Trader! This post is public so feel free to share it.

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", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Winter is approaching, and we\u2019ll be transitioning to coverage of cold and snow .

All aboard! Multiple sequential \u201churricane force\u201d extratropical cyclones \u201cbombing\u201d out in the Aleutians and then decaying over Alaska or the Gulf of Alaska. The typical extratropical cyclone forms as a shallow frontal wave NE of Japan and then phases with the upper-level jet stream often \u201crapidly intensifying\u201d with central pressures from the 930s to 960s mb. The entire lifecycle is 3-5 days, but may last longer if the mature or occluded stage becomes stationary or cuts off from the main storm track.

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