{ "number": 763, "headline": "October 13, 2025 Monday Weather After Dark", "standfirst": "North Pacific wave train amplifies our weather in the Lower 48 this weekend", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-10-14", "published": "2025-10-14T03:51:22.455000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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2025 Hurricane Season [Day 134]. My FORECAST for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (near average)

2025 Season to Date: 12 Named Storms, 4 Hurricanes, and 3 Majors | ACE = 99

Good Evening! This is post 763 in this newsletter\u2019s 2-year history. Winter is fast approaching, and we\u2019ll be transitioning to coverage of cold and snow.

A midnight update to keep the forecast fresh and the weather model maps updating!

Water Vapor Loop

Massive digging trough into the Gulf of Mexico attached to the 2 \u201cnon-tropical\u201d systems spinning off East Coast \u2014 very impressive but a pattern we would expect to see into mid-October.

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North America Precipitable Water next 6-Days

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Overview of the continent: Next 6-days

  1. Atmospheric rivers descend the west coast from WA/OR into California for a great start to the 2025-26 Water Year as a strong jet stream from North Pacific \u201cwave train\u201d sends repeated \u201churricane force\u201d cyclones into the Aleutian Low region.

  2. Weekend storm system for the central U.S. moves into Canada by Saturday and deepens to around 980 mb central pressure. Another storm then develops in the Great Lakes into Sunday \u2014 not quite cold enough for snowfall.

  3. Atlantic tropics: Tropical Storm Lorenzo is a mess \u2014 sheared and poorly organized. I\u2019m doing a poor job of predicting these low-% chance development systems.

Precipitation Type _ MSLP | Next 6-days

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Plenty of west coast moisture into California and then the Pacific Northwest \u2026 as we watch the development of 2 storms in the central U.S. and then Great Lakes.

The East Coast storms keep spinning for the next 5-6 days well out to sea, but will be fun to watch!

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Current Temperature | RTMA 10:15 PM ET

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Current Temperature Anomaly | RTMA 10:15 PM ET

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Lower 48 is a -2.4\u00b0F below normal

Low Temperatures Tuesday Morning

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Over 3 million population below freezing but COLD temperatures just on the other side of the border in AB/SK with single digits.

High Temperatures on Tuesday

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Lower 48 average temperature of 67\u00b0F \u2026 with 90s in Texas and only 8 Million population. Only in the 40s in the upper-Midwest.

High Temperatures Next 9-days | Blend of Models

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ECMWF Next 6-Days Integrated Vapor Transport | 18z cycle

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Blend of Models 7-Day Precipitation through early next Tuesday

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Snowfall Next 7-days | Blend of Models

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Medium Range | AIFS 18z | 10-days Height Anomaly

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The idea of central U.S. ridging is history into this weekend as a parade of troughs rolls through the Lower 48 with assist from the North Pacific wave train

Atlantic Basin Outlook | 8 PM ET Update

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Tropical Storm Lorenzo (12L)

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50 mph winds \u2014 poorly organized \u2014 and currently not forecast to become a hurricane.

Central Atlantic IR + Water Vapor Satellite Images

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The western half of the Atlantic basin is quite hostile with dry air and wind shear. Lorenzo is already heading NW and soon N then out-to-sea.

ECMWF 18z Precipitable Water | Next 6-days

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A tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles in 6-days on Sunday \u2026 and that\u2019s worth watching into the Caribbean in the following week.

SST Analysis and Anomaly | 12z

NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 18z

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Atlantic Tropical Waves = 3 + TS Lorenzo mixed in

ECMWF EPS 12z | All Storm Tracks Day 3.5

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Those tracks in the subtropics are non-tropical \u2026 except for Lorenzo, which could be history by 4-days.

ECMWF EPS 12z | Active Storm Tracks Day 10

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A handful of members in the Caribbean from a westward tracking tropical wave, but low chance (< 10%)

ECMWF EPS 12z | Active Storm Tracks Day 15

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A few more ensemble members pop up storms / hurricanes in the Caribbean by end of October.

This is a favored region, of course, so we will keep a very close eye.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook | 8 PM ET

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Again watching the immediate coast of Mexico for a new tropical storm later in the week. However, there is a complete void of convection across the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough / ITCZ this evening.

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Western Pacific Typhoon Season

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Tropical Storm Nakri (29W) will head into the North Pacific and join a very active wave train with multiple hurricane force extratropical cyclones lining up in a parade in the coming 1-2 weeks.

North Pacific Wave Train

All aboard! Multiple sequential hurricane force extratropical cyclones \u201cbombing\u201d out in the Aleutians with a massive, textbook \u201cwarm seclusion\u201d this weekend. She\u2019s a beauty!

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

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2025 Season to Date: 12 Named Storms, 4 Hurricanes, and 3 Majors | ACE = 9 9

A midnight update to keep the forecast fresh and the weather model maps updating!

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