{ "number": 761, "headline": "October 9, 2025 Thursday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Southwest rainfall from tropical storms + Nor'easter with gusty winds and rain", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-10-09", "published": "2025-10-09T21:03:37.094000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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2025 Hurricane Season [Day 131]. My FORECAST for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (near average)

2025 Season to Date: 10 Named Storms, 4 Hurricanes, and 3 Majors | ACE = 96

Good Evening! This is post 761 in this newsletter\u2019s 2-year history. Winter is fast approaching, and we\u2019ll be transitioning to coverage of cold and snow \u2014 but stay with the tropics for a little while longer.

North America Precipitable Water next 7-Days

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Overview of the continent: Next 7-days

  1. Tropical moisture from former TS Priscilla and newly formed Tropical Storm Raymond will funnel into the U.S. Southwest and then continue ENE into the central Plains and Midwest fueling significant rainfall.

  2. Fall chill continues behind a Canadian cold front across the Great Lakes and Northeast.

  3. A non-tropical \u201cNor\u2019easter\u201d like system forms off the Carolinas, which lifts north into the Northeast \u2014 all the while battering the coast with gusty winds and rainfall \u2014 mainly this weekend. Hurricane force wind gusts could be just offshore New Jersey.

  4. Atlantic tropics: Tropical Storm Jerry battling strong wind shear but maintaining convection albeit asymmetric.

Precipitation Type _ MSLP | Next 7-days

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We\u2019re back to showing the precipitation type again! And, there is some snowfall (blue) showing up on the maps across the Rockies and into Canadian Prairies as mid-October is already cold enough for snowfall.

Plenty of moisture into the West Coast + tropical input from Priscilla and Raymond into the Southwest. Meanwhile, the east coast sees a blustery Nor\u2019easter with heavy rain and near hurricane force wind gusts. Not a named system, but similar to a tropical storm \u2014 and thankfully no snow (yet).

Current Temperature | RTMA 3:45 PM ET

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Current Temperature Anomaly | RTMA 3:45 PM ET

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Lower 48 is a whopping +6.0\u00b0F above normal

Low Temperatures Friday Morning

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Chilly below freezing mornings continue across New England into the 20s and lower-30s. We now have over 7-million population below freezing!

High Temperatures on Friday

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Comfortable across much of the Lower 48 with 60s and 70s from coast to coast. Hottest in the 90s across south Texas and the desert Southwest. .

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ECMWF Next 8-Days Integrated Vapor Transport | 12z cycle

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  1. Tropical Storm Priscilla and its moisture plume head into Southwest with significant rainfall and flooding threat to Arizona.

  2. Tropical Storm Raymond formed and is hugging the coast of Mexico

  3. In the Atlantic, Jerry stays just NE of the Caribbean and Leeward Islands, although could see some tropical storm conditions in Guadeloupe.

  4. Nor\u2019easter develops out of a non-tropical trough \u2014> \u201chybrid system\u201d off the East Coast that could be impactful even if not a named storm (unlikely based upon structure)

Medium Range | AIFS 12z | 10-days Height Anomaly

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Central U.S. ridging (and warmth) in the story of the next 10-days while the western U.S. deals with cool/cold troughing from Canada. Another major trough develops off the Northeast U.S. as the overall weather pattern repeats itself \u2014 including troughing across the West.

East Coast Nor\u2019easter / Hybrid Storm

Central pressure will dip into the 990s \u2014 and as the system matures/occludes and loops off the coast, the westward flank will see a large band of strong winds \u2014> could be near hurricane force gusts along the coast w/much strong winds aloft > 80-knots at 850 mb

Vorticity Loop

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The system has frontal characteristics until occlusion on Monday \u2014 and then it decays. Jerry heads away to the east but not expecting a powerful hurricane out of it any longer.

Wind Gusts Next 6-days

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The impactful wind gusts will be Monday and Tuesday

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We could easily see 40-60 mph wind gusts \u2026 over a long stretch of coastline.

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ECMWF EPS 12z Temperature Anomaly | Weekly Chunks

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Week 1 \u2014> cooler air in the eastern U.S. including the Mid-Atlantic + California

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Week 2 \u2014> significant warmth across Texas and the central U.S. while California remains very cool

Snowfall Next 15-days

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Nothing much east of the Rockies \u2026 but significant mountain snows likely into final 10-days of October \u2014 right on schedule.

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Alaska and Arctic Canada already seeing heavy snowfall \u2014> winter

Blend of Models 7-Day Precipitation

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MAJOR rainfall threat for Arizona with widespread 2\u201d-4\u201d (and thus locally more) from the remnants of Priscilla. Also note 1-3\u201d accumulations across the West Coast from Washington to central California.

\u2026 and the coastal / hybrid system along the East Coast could dump a lot of locally heavy rain near the coast and just inland \u2014 2-4\u201d as well.

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Really could use some rain here in the Southeast in North Georgia. Boo!

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I note the NOAA WPC precipitation is quite similar to the Blend of Models \u2014 not sure what value is added at this point, so I\u2019m going to ditch the WPC maps

Atlantic Basin Outlook | 2 PM ET Update

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Tropical Storm Jerry (10L)

Poorly organized and heavily sheared tropical storm Jerry

NHC Track of Tropical Storm Jerry | 1001 mb | 65 mph

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Jerry curves away from the Caribbean on Friday, due north this weekend, and east of Bermuda into next week. Not expecting any surprises from Jerry \u2014 it will generate some ACE, mix fish, and get a Wikipedia entry.

Central Atlantic Water Vapor + IR Satellite Images

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Only show in town is Jerry \u2014 and it is not particularly well organized. Overall, the Atlantic tropics remain hostile to development \u2014 as we head into the last 7-weeks of the Hurricane Season, our attention shifts to the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Jerry (10L) | ATCF Spaghetti

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Tropical Storm Jerry

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ECMWF 12z Precipitable Water | Next 6-days

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Impressive coastal system \u2014 Nor\u2019easter with frontal structure \u2014 so likely not going to become a named system

SST Analysis and Anomaly | 12z

SST in Caribbean and Gulf plenty warm

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NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 12z

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Atlantic Tropical Waves = 3 but none showing development potential

ECMWF EPS 12z | All Storm Tracks Day 6

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Nor\u2019easter + Jerry + eastern MDR tropical wave (low signal)

ECMWF EPS 12z | Active Storm Tracks Day 15

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Very quiet across the Atlantic tropics into last 7-days of October with only a few scattered ensemble tracks.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook | 2 PM ET

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Octave is gone and Tropical Storm Priscilla has fallen apart rapidly but we now have Tropical Storm Raymond

Tropical Storm Priscilla | NHC Cone | 45 mph

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Tropical Storm Raymond will not intensify much in the coming few days

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Western Pacific Typhoon Season | 29W (Nakri)

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Halong has become post-tropical \u2026 so the only show in town is minimal tropical storm Nakri, which will follow on a similar track looping out-to-sea away from Japan.

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

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Overview of the continent: Next 7-days

Tropical moisture from former TS Priscilla and newly formed Tropical Storm Raymond will funnel into the U.S. Southwest and then continue ENE into the central Plains and Midwest fueling significant rainfall.

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