{ "number": 755, "headline": "October 3, 2025 Friday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Confidence increasing for Tropical Storm Jerry forming next week", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-10-03", "published": "2025-10-03T12:42:38.673000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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2025 Hurricane Season [Day 125]. My FORECAST for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (near average)

2025 Season to Date: 9 Named Storms, 4 Hurricanes, and 3 Majors

Good Morning! This is post 755 in this newsletter\u2019s brief history (~2 years). With winter fast approaching, we\u2019ll be transitioning to coverage of cold and snow \u2014 but also stay with the tropics as activity seems to be heating up.

Weather Trader is a reader-supported newsletter with daily weather updates. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Mid-Level Water Vapor Loop

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The Atlantic is currently quiet in terms of potential tropical storm development but a tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa will slowly organize in the coming days. NHC has a 40% chance of development in 7-days.

ECMWF Next 12-Days Integrated Vapor Transport | 00z cycle

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Large view centered on North America shows the development of [Eastern Pacific] Hurricane Priscilla with moisture heading into the U.S. Southwest \u2014 also absorbing what\u2019s left of Octave, and then being followed by Raymond.

Today\u2019s flagship 00z model run from ECMWF shows a hurricane (Jerry) developing near the Northeast Caribbean in 7-days \u2014 middle to late next week. The system them stalls and heads quickly north out to sea. This is a great outcome \u2014 similar to our previous major hurricanes (Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto).

Tropical storm development in not imminent \u2014but increasing chances now up to 40% chance of a far Eastern Atlantic tropical wave developing into a TD in 7-days

Medium Range | AIFS 06z | 10-days Height Anomaly

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North America will see the rebuilding of a strong high pressure ridge over the central U.S. = warmth again for the middle of the country. However, on either side, troughs will dominate including in the Pacific Northwest and Southeast.

Weather Trader is a reader-supported newsletter authored by Dr. Ryan Maue. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

NOAA WPC 7-Day Precipitation

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Atlantic Basin Outlook | 8 AM ET Update

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NHC is watching a tropical wave (40%) for a MEDIUM chance of development \u2014 and increasing

A non-tropical frontal boundary has a low yellow hatching over Florida (10%)

ECMWF 06z Precipitable Water | Next 6-days

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Low latitude tropical wave showing some signs of development perhaps into early next week \u2014 40% according to NHC

ECMWF 06z Relative Vorticity | Next 6-days

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The updated 06z model spins up the tropical wave slowly but surely into next week.

NOAA GFS 06z | Integrated Vapor Transport

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Similar solution with GFS 06z \u2014 and the GEFS 06z Ensembles through 10-days with high likelihood of (major) Hurricane Jerry.

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SST Analysis and Anomaly | 12z

Ocean temperatures remain plenty warm for any category of hurricane in the tropics up to about 30\u00b0N with 28\u00b0C and above SSTs.

Atlantic Satellite Image | IR and GeoColor Visible

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Limited convection over water \u2026 we are watching a wave coming in the far Eastern Atlantic

NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 06z

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Atlantic Tropical Waves = 2 but neither are flagged as development potential by NHC. The ORANGE 40% hatching is for a wave that NHC didn\u2019t put on the map yet.

Eastern Atlantic Visible Satellite Image

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ITCZ/monsoon trough shows up well + area of convection just off African coast

ECMWF EPS 00z | Active Storm Tracks Day 7

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~50% chance of development of tropical wave with a curious member already at 925 mb (Category 5) in 7-days. However, that is only 1 out of 50.

ECMWF EPS 00z | Active Storm Tracks Day 10

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The Northeast Caribbean will need to closely monitor this tropical wave!

ECMWF EPS 00z | Active Storm Tracks Day 15

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This is \u201cover the predictability horizon\u201d after 2-weeks \u2026 but there\u2019s little doubt that the Atlantic hurricane season remains activated even if we don\u2019t know exactly where a particular system will be.

This is typical for mid-October as our focus shifts westward into the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook | 8 AM ET

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2 more systems coming online in the next 7-days = Priscilla and Raymond

Tropical Storm Octave | NHC Cone

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Octave will take a clockwise loop for the next 5-7 days and may interact with Priscilla well down the road.

Burst of convection with Octave \u2014 the next disturbance likely a TD/TS by this weekend off coast of Mexico (90%) = Priscilla

Eastern Pacific Current Satellite

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PWAT Next 6-days for Octave and Priscilla \u2014 then Raymond!

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Western Pacific Typhoon Season

Typhoon Matmo has moved across Luzon into the South China Sea and will intensify to 85-knots (JTWC) before making landfall in China in 2-3 days.

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Another Typhoon likely to develop in the NW part of the basin between Taiwan and Japan.

7-day Active Cyclones | Ensemble Spaghetti (50-members) | ECMWF 00z

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

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The Atlantic is currently quiet in terms of potential tropical storm development but a tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa will slowly organize in the coming days. NHC has a 40% chance of development in 7-days.

Large view centered on North America shows the development of [Eastern Pacific] Hurricane Priscilla with moisture heading into the U.S. Southwest \u2014 also absorbing what\u2019s left of Octave, and then being followed by Raymond.

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