{ "number": 729, "headline": "September 10, 2025 Wednesday Morning Update", "standfirst": "Atlantic hurricane season returns to action next week", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-09-10", "published": "2025-09-10T15:15:52.875000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

Good Morning!

Quiet weather today across the Lower 48 with only a few areas of showers and cloud cover. The mid-September sun angle still has no trouble warming up the dry Canadian origin air mass that plunged southward behind a strong cold front.

\"\"
\"\"

Lower 48 Precipitable Water | Next 6-days

\"\"

Another trough dips into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast this weekend into early next week. Tropical Storm Marco could rapidly intensify off the coast of Mexico into a Major Hurricane.

Please Subscribe \u2014 or recommend to a friend to increase my reach on Substack!

Weather Trader is a reader supported newsletter by Dr. Ryan Maue. To receive new posts and support my research and work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Weather | Fronts this Morning

\"\"

Smoke Analysis | 10 AM ET Wednesday

\"\"

RTMA Temperatures and Anomaly | 9:45 AM ET

\"\"
\"\"

Lower 48 is normal (0.0\u00b0F anomaly)

High Temperatures Wednesday and Comparison with Climatology

\"\"
\"\"

Rainfall Next 24-hours | NWS NDFD

\"\"

7-Day Precipitation from NOAA WPC

\"\"

North America Upper Level Height Anomaly | AIFS 06z | Next 10-days

\"\"

A warming trend in the center of the Lower 48 and into Canada \u2014 especially in the western provinces. The troughs on either side of the blocks will filter cooler air from Canada southward into the Carolinas and Southeast \u2014 but also very dry.

ECMWF EPS 00z | 7-day Temperature Anomaly | Week 1 (Sept 10-16)

\"\"

ECMWF EPS 00z | 7-day Temperature Anomaly | Week 2 (Sept 17-23)

\"\"

Atlantic Hurricane Season

2025 Hurricane Season [Day 102]. My FORECAST for this year is (still) 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (near average)

2025 Season to Date: 6 named storms, 1 hurricanes, and 1 majors | ACE = 40 ACE of Erin: 32.2 (140-knots maximum wind)

ECMWF 12-Days Integrated Vapor Transport | 00z cycle

\"\"

Flagship model simulation shows 2 tropical wave candidates for TS/Hurricane formation: (1) coming off Africa Friday (2) another strong wave the following weekend. These are spaced 1-week apart, which limits the number of storms we can see in the Atlantic, but we should see 2 TS/Hurricanes by September 22.

ECMWF 06z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

\"\"

A tropical wave by this weekend coming off Africa is next shot at a tropical system but may not develop into a TD for 7-8 days.

Atlantic Basin Outlook | 8 AM ET Update

\"\"

Nobody home \u2014 but I\u2019d expect a Yellow Hatching to come online soon for weekend tropical wave.

Atlantic Satellite Imagery | GeoColor

\"\"

Water Vapor | Mid-level

\"\"

Infrared Imagery

\"\"

NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 06z

\"\"

Atlantic Tropical Waves = 2 but not candidates for development

Eastern Atlantic and Africa Visible Satellite

\"\"

NASA Dust 5-day Forecast

\"\"

Dust is omnipresent across the Atlantic tropics but at a slightly higher latitude and less intensity that previous weeks, a trend we expect into mid-September.

ECMWF EPS 00z Ensemble | Active Cyclone Tracks Through 7-days

\"\"

Coherent signal from the ensembles at Day 7 (next Tuesday) > 50%

ECMWF EPS 00z Ensemble | Active Cyclone Tracks Through 12-days

\"\"

Most members feature a hurricane. Another wave on its heels develops right off the coast of Africa.

ECMWF EPS 00z Ensemble | Active Cyclone Tracks Through 15-days

\"\"

Many major hurricane possibilities \u2014 over the central Atlantic (September 24th)

AIFS-ENS Comparison at 06Z | Active Tracks at Day 10

\"\"

AIFS ENS is very excited about this tropical wave \u2014 high chance > 90%

AIFS-ENS Comparison at 06Z | Active Tracks at Day 15

\"\"

A more active Atlantic basin for sure, but thankfully everything looks to be recurving or staying away off the U.S. mainland.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Update

\"\"
\"\"

Next system is Marco \u2014 coming online in a few days and could become a major hurricane.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Quiet weather today across the Lower 48 with only a few areas of showers and cloud cover. The mid-September sun angle still has no trouble warming up the dry Canadian origin air mass that plunged southward behind a strong cold front.

Another trough dips into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast this weekend into early next week. Tropical Storm Marco could rapidly intensify off the coast of Mexico into a Major Hurricane.

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:14Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/september-10-2025-wednesday-morning" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "173269501.september-10-2025-wednesday-morning", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/september-10-2025-wednesday-morning", "slug": "september-10-2025-wednesday-morning-update", "path": "/mp/729/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/729/", "desk_label": "Tropics", "digest": "c903360bb02eee3cc88b58c77ee2f56a30f2c82a188aff40e245b0832c422e98" }