{ "number": 709, "headline": "August 19, 2025 Hurricane Erin Evening Update", "standfirst": "Erin inner core slightly improved as wind shear decreased", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-08-20", "published": "2025-08-20T01:34:32.769000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Day 80]. My FORECAST for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

2025 Season to Date: 5 named storms, 1 hurricanes, and 1 majors

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Tuesday Evening Tropical Update

  1. Hurricane Erin a little better organized this evening as the inner-core is more symmetric

  2. Tropical wave off Africa (Invest 99L) still showing sustained convection but time is running out before it apparently degrades into an open wave (30% chance of development)

  3. Central MDR tropical wave \u2014 little convection, so much slower development but a TS likely northeast of the Leeward Islands this weekend (60%)

  4. Ensemble packages show the Atlantic going quiet into September.

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Good Evening! Hurricane Erin does look much better this evening with shear and dry air decreasing \u2014 NHC has the intensity at 90-knots (Category 2) at 8 PM ET.

The intensity of Erin is expected to remain near Category 3 (major) for the coming 2 days as the storm tracks through the western Atlantic \u2014 in between North Carolina and Bermuda.

Erin will be a \u201cmassive\u201d sized storm and strong tropical storm wind force gusts impacting the Outer Banks + enormous / battering waves + swell along the coastline.

Weather Trader is a reader-supported publication by Dr. Ryan Maue. To receive new posts and support my updates and research work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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  1. Central MDR tropical wave moving westward crossing 40\u00b0W will slowly develop in 3-4 days as it nears the northern Leeward Islands (60% chance)

  2. Small but vigorous Invest 99L just south of the Cape Verde Islands could actually take the next name, briefly \u2014> Fernand \u2014 it dips WSW into the monsoon trough.

ECMWF EPS 12z track spaghetti for Hurricane Erin

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Hurricane Erin may make 75\u00b0W and 30\u00b0N waypoint \u2014 considerably west of previous forecasts \u2014 but the curve out to sea will be more pronounced \u2014 thankfully. Very close call to the coast \u2014 but the actual % chance of a landfall was at most 6% from the ensembles \u2014 and that includes the outliers.

ECMWF AIFS 18z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

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Erin \u201cescapes\u201d out to sea as the trough over far SE Canada erodes the subtropical ridge / Bermuda High and provides the weakness.

A massive trough dips into the Northeast by this weekend shutting the door on any tropical storm activity near the U.S. East Coast for the next 7-10 days.

Also, ridging over the 4 corners of the Western USA = \u201cheat dome\u201d that has just enough power to keep Erin from moving west \u2014 and helps direct the Canadian Arctic troughs downstream. The U.S. East Coast is spared a landfall by Erin.

ECMWF 18z | Next 6-days of Vorticity

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In 3 days, the central MDR tropical wave may have a better opportunity to develop north of Puerto Rico into the weekend \u2014> it has a broad and loose circulation but tightens up as it heads WNW.

Hard to see but a little red dot of cyclonic vorticity appears with Invest 99L south of the Cape Verde Islands and it dips WSW. That could still be Fernand in next 24-hours!

ECMWF 10-Days Integrated Vapor Transport | 12z cycle

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Massive Erin undergoes \u201cextratropical transition\u201d in the central north Atlantic early next week and may affect U.K. or western Europe with some wind/rain as a \u201cpost tropical\u201d cyclone.

Thereafter, next week looks quiet across the Atlantic basin \u2026 but every African easterly wave needs to be watched into the peak of the season.

Atlantic Basin Outlook | 8 PM ET Update

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The 30% Yellow Hatching in the Eastern Atlantic is Invest 99L \u2014 not the orange 60% area. Invest 99L \u2014> chance at Fernand if convection is maintained!

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Category 2 Hurricane Erin | 90-knots

NHC forecast maintains near major hurricane status through 60-hours with continued expansion in wind field.

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ATCF Spaghetti | 00z Interpolated Models

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Over the past few days, the model, statistical, and NHC Official forecast have trended WESTWARD \u2014 but thankfully we still have a few hundred miles of real estate out in the Atlantic to avoid U.S. landfall.

HAFS-A and HAFS-B closest to coast Wind Gusts

ECMWF 850 mb Winds \u2014 massive size of Erin

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Atlantic Satellite Imagery | Night GeoColor & Infrared

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NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 18z

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Atlantic Tropical Waves = 3 including Invest 99L + Major Hurricane Erin

Satellite Image of African Easterly Waves

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Invest 99L still looks impressive this morning!

ECMWF Ensembles 12z | 51 Members | Full Physics | All Cyclones 15-days

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Into early September \u2014 Atlantic quiets down completely.

AIFS-Ensemble | A.I. Trained 12Z | Active Tracks at 5 days

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ECMWF AIFS-ENS remains much more aggressive with this system than the conventional/full physics system

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

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Hurricane Erin a little better organized this evening as the inner-core is more symmetric

Tropical wave off Africa (Invest 99L) still showing sustained convection but time is running out before it apparently degrades into an open wave (30% chance of development)

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