{ "number": 690, "headline": "August 3, 2025 Hurricane Season Sunday", "standfirst": "Tropical Storm Dexter likely off U.S. East Coast heading out to sea", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-08-03", "published": "2025-08-03T23:19:54.246000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Day 64]. My FORECAST for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. 2025: 3 named storms, 0 hurricanes, and 0 majors

Sunday\u2019s Tropical Update

  1. Atlantic Basin: NHC has 3 areas of interest: East Coast of US (70%) for development along a frontal boundary = Dexter likely soon. Another low pressure will develop off the Southeast U.S. coastline. Another area in the central MDR (40%) for yet-to-emerge tropical wave this coming week.

  2. Eastern Pacific Basin: Invest 90E likely to become Tropical Storm Henriette by Monday.

  3. Western Pacific Basin: Higher latitude tropical storms continue to pop-up, but not affect land as they recurve out to sea east of Japan.

Good evening! With 3 areas of interest by NHC over the next 7-days, it seems we are moving into a relatively more active period of the Atlantic Hurricane season. Of course, we haven\u2019t had a hurricane yet, but that should change with either Dexter (Invest 95E) off the U.S. East Coast intensifying, or a tropical wave expected to come off Africa early this coming week.

Looking down the road, the \u201cAfrican Easterly Wave Train\u201d is back on a more normal track/trajectory over the MDR with more robust convective signatures as Saharan Dust Layers subside into mid-August.

Ensembles are \u201cbusy\u201d into Days 10-15 including potential for TS/HU in the western half of the Atlantic basin e.g. closer to the U.S. mainland.

Weather Trader is a reader-supported daily newsletter authored by Dr. Ryan Maue. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

ECMWF 12z | Precipitable Water Next 10-days

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My favorite parameter: Several areas to watch in next 10-days:

Southeast U.S. as Invest 95L (Dexter) heads ENE out to sea: NHC has a 20% chance of development, and models support \u201csomething\u201d weak developing and then moving westward = more rainfall for drenched Georgia, Florida, and Carolinas.

Central MDR tropical wave \u2014> Hurricane but moves / recurves quickly northward.

ITCZ looks solid/more robust with high precipitable water content.

ECMWF 12Z | Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days | Atlantic Basin

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Adding the moisture transport vectors \u2014 we can see the various tropical systems over the Atlantic basin. It seems we have indeed \u201cflipped the switch\u201d into mid-August.

ECMWF 12Z | Relative Vorticity 10-days | Atlantic Basin

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All of a sudden, everything is spinning! Plenty of options \u2014 and with the ensembles, as we\u2019ll see, multiple scenarios or tracks with increased uncertainty into Week 2.

ICON Precipitable Water Next 5-days | 18z

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DWD (Germany) ICON model also highlights the weak system off the Southeast U.S. coast by Friday \u2014 likely another named storm \u2014> Erin (then Fernand)

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Thank you to readers continuing into this Hurricane Season. My goal is to keep you informed about ongoing extreme weather events inside and outside of the tropics, but also a week (hopefully) heads up on what\u2019s coming. I\u2019ll be using a variety of weather modeling output, some of it may be unfamiliar, but it\u2019s state-of-the-art and industry leading standard.

Atlantic Basin Outlook

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3 areas of interest \u2014 and I would bet all 3 become named systems in these next 7-days.

Atlantic Satellite Imagery | Infrared

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No convection to note in the main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic, but soon-to-be Tropical Storm Dexter looks vigorous \u2014 and passes the eye test as a functional tropical system over warm waters.

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Gulf of Mexico has some clouds but the main blob of moisture is over Georgia and Carolinas with chilly/wedge rain leaving high temperatures in the 60s.

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Eastern Atlantic & Tropical Africa | Satellite Image

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Tropical waves over Africa are convectively active \u2026 and we have 3 lined up and ready to go

NASA GEOS-5 | 00z DUST Aerosol Optical Depth | 8-day Forecast

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Plumes of Saharan dust coming off African continent to north of tropical wave and monsoon trough.

Atlantic Ocean Surface Temperatures (SST) + Anomaly (vs. last 20-years)

Ocean temperatures remain abnormally warm in the subtropics off the U.S. East Coast to Bermuda. The MDR is near normal.

NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 12z

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Atlantic Tropical Waves = 2 but these aren\u2019t going to develop in the Caribbean, but could in the Eastern Pacific. The Main Development Region (MDR) is empty!

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East Coast Tropical System | Early Tuesday

Tropical Storm or perhaps Hurricane Dexter!

Medium range ensemble model outlook

These are 51-realizations of the same model with different initial conditions. Each ensemble gets equal ~2% weight in a mean calculation.

ECMWF Ensembles 12z | Day 6 Active Tracks

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Full-physics conventional model \u2014> central MDR tropical wave with some support, but not as many % members as I\u2019d expect with the Control showing a hurricane. Hmmm, makes you wonder if there\u2019s a LID on the basin that the ECMWF model is missing \u2026

ECMWF Ensembles 12z | Day 10 Active Tracks

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Honestly, not much going on aside from the central mid-Atlantic.

ECMWF Ensembles 12z | Day 14 Active Tracks

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More ensembles show westward transiting tropical waves becoming hurricanes \u2026 into August 17th. However, the full-physics is LESS active by a LOT than the AIFS-ENS (AI trained) system.

Compare with AIFS Ensembles 12z | Day 7 Active Tracks

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Oddly enough, the AIFS-Ens is not very interested in this central MDR tropical wave coming online \u2026

Compare with AIFS Ensembles 12z | Day 10 Active Tracks

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\u2026 the window between Days 10-14 \u2014 everything breaks loose with multiple systems per ensemble, and some very intense.

Compare with AIFS Ensembles 12z | Day 14 Active Tracks

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HOWEVER, don\u2019t panic! We don\u2019t have ANYTHING yet and these scenarios are NOT forecasts.

Eastern and Central Pacific Tropical Update

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We lost Tropical Storm Gil (07E) over cooler waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific.

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Convection is gone with Gil but gale force winds remain.

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Invest 90E + another system in the next 7-days | Ensemble Tracks | Active systems at Day 3 & 7

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Western Pacific Tropical Update

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Newly named/numbered Tropical Storm Bailu (13W) will recurve east of Japan

All high latitude \u201cfish storms\u201d

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Atlantic Basin : NHC has 3 areas of interest: East Coast of US (70%) for development along a frontal boundary = Dexter likely soon. Another low pressure will develop off the Southeast U.S. coastline. Another area in the central MDR (40%) for yet-to-emerge tropical wave this coming week.

Eastern Pacific Basin : Invest 90E likely to become Tropical Storm Henriette by Monday.

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