{ "number": 681, "headline": "July 25, 2025 Hurricane Season Friday", "standfirst": "Tropical wave in 5-7 days bears watching in central Atlantic MDR", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-07-25", "published": "2025-07-25T14:45:19.299000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Day 55]. My expectation for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. So far, 3 named storms, 0 hurricanes, and 0 majors

Friday\u2019s Tropical Update

  1. Atlantic Basin: NHC still has a 10% chance up for the disturbance in the Gulf but time is running out. There appears to be a broad surface circulation. Models showing a more robust tropical wave in the central MDR next week.

  2. Eastern Pacific Basin: Area SE of Hawaii could develop (50%) in deep tropics nearing Central Pacific. Another system likely next week well off southern Mexico.

  3. Western Pacific Basin: Watching Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) for rapid intensification today.

Good morning! The Atlantic remains very quiet with a low chance of a tropical depression in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Currently a 10% chance according to NHC of further development into this weekend before the risk goes to 0%. However, there is a surface circulation that is co-located loosely with some scattered convection, so a brief spin-up further could happen today.

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Just scattered rain shower and storms in the far NW Gulf of Mexico.

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Large Basin view of Simulated Water Vapor | ECMWF 00z

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A wave that reaches the central MDR in 5-6 days showing signs in the ECMWF HRES and ensembles (down the road) for further development. Otherwise, the basin is under an onslaught of midlatitude and Saharan Air Layer influences - troughs and dry/stable air at low and mid-levels. Not a happy place for tropical storms.

Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days | Atlantic Basin

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Sunday: tropical wave emerges into Atlantic and shows more significant moisture transport and circulation into Wed/Thurs next week as it reaches the central MDR. The prevailing flow takes this wave to the northern Caribbean / Bahamas in 10-days (August 3).

We need to closely watch these waves for gaining latitude and finding more hospitable environment in the subtropics for tropical cyclogenesis.

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Thank you to readers continuing into this Hurricane Season. My goal is to keep you informed about ongoing extreme weather events inside and outside of the tropics, but also a week (hopefully) heads up on what\u2019s coming. I\u2019ll be using a variety of weather modeling output, some of it may be unfamiliar, but it\u2019s state-of-the-art and industry leading standard.

Atlantic Basin Outlook

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10% chance of development into weekend across the Northern Gulf of Mexico.

Eastern Atlantic Satellite Image

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Only show in the town is the tropical wave just east of the Lesser Antilles.

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Clear conditions from the Bahamas to Puerto Rico and the subtropical \u201cwarm pool\u201d

NASA GEOS-5 | 00z DUST Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) | 10-d Forecast

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Tropical waves will need to deal with continued dust plumes into August.

Atlantic Ocean Surface Temperatures (SST) | Anomaly

Ocean temperatures plenty warm from African coast to the Lesser Antilles with 28\u00b0C corridor or warm pool extending into the western Atlantic around Bermuda. However, the anomaly (which doesn\u2019t do anything) remains near-normal or slightly below in the Main Development Region (MDR) from Caribbean to Africa.

The \u201cwarm blob\u201d around Bermuda is decreasing in magnitude.

Gulf of Mexico where the 10% wave spins is > 30\u00b0C \u2014 very warm \u2014 and evidence that you need more than \u201cwarm water\u201d to form a tropical storm.

Tropical Atlantic Satellite Imagery

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Convection with a tropical wave east of the Islands is maintaining vigor.

ECMWF Precipitation and MSLP | Next 6-days

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ECMWF Vorticity Next 6-days

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Better / more impressive collection of moisture / convection into the central MDR in 6-days \u2026 looks healthier than whatever we\u2019ve seen in the past several weeks.

ECMWF | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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My favorite parameter \u2026 Huge amount of tropical moisture continues to rotate around a deep layer ridge anchored over the Southeast U.S.

And, we may see yet another repeat of this weather pattern that brings a blob of moisture from decaying front / backdoor trough into the Southeast.

The central MDR looks reasonably primed for development \u2026

NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 06z

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Atlantic Tropical Waves = 4 but not developing. The disturbance in the Gulf is still at 10% associated with an old frontal boundary.

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Medium range ensemble model outlook

These are 51-realizations of the same model with different initial conditions. Each ensemble gets equal ~2% weight in a mean calculation.

ECMWF Ensembles 00z | Next 12-days | Active Tracks

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ECMWF Ensembles 00z | Next 15-days | Active Tracks

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We do have hurricanes in the ensembles (EPS 00z) with 6/51 showing a powerful system in the western Atlantic. However, that is only 10%, so not a strong signal. We will monitor, of course.

Compare with AIFS Ensembles | Next 10-days | Active Tracks

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Next 13-days | Active Tracks

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Next 15-days | Active Tracks

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The 10-14 day period lights up with the AIFS-ENS v1 showing many systems. This is a more coherent signal that deserves attention with the tropical wave in 6-days that reaches the MDR.

ECMWF Control (15-days)

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GFS 06z | Next 16-days

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Update

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Area of convection well SE of Hawaii showing development but any storm formation will be slow. NHC has a 50% chance in next 7-days. Area south of Mexico is on tap for next week.

AIFS-Ensembles through 4-days

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Weak lows in the far southern tropics along the ITCZ

Day 8 Active Tracks

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Much higher chance of storm off Mexico going to die over cooler waters.

Western Pacific Tropical Update

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Busy Western Pacific with multiple systems underway. I\u2019m most interested in Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) for rapid intensification today.

ECMWF Control has 960s mb for Krosa (12W) at its peak intensity in 2-days suggestive of a Cat 2 Typhoon.

Tropical Storm 12W (Krosa)

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A blob of intense convection is forming near the center \u2026 and wind shear will decrease allowing a brief window for faster intensification.

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JTWC now shows a minimal typhoon in 36-hours. As it\u2019s not forecast to affect land, we can watch Krosa (12W) develop and it may reach \u201cmajor typhoon\u201d status.

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

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Atlantic Basin : NHC still has a 10% chance up for the disturbance in the Gulf but time is running out. There appears to be a broad surface circulation. Models showing a more robust tropical wave in the central MDR next week.

Eastern Pacific Basin : Area SE of Hawaii could develop (50%) in deep tropics nearing Central Pacific. Another system likely next week well off southern Mexico.

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