{ "number": 680, "headline": "July 24, 2025 Hurricane Season Thursday", "standfirst": "Ensembles show low development potential into 12-14 day range off U.S. East Coast", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-07-24", "published": "2025-07-24T16:02:36.451000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Day 54]. My expectation for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. So far, 3 named storms, 0 hurricanes, and 0 majors

Thursday\u2019s Tropical Update

  1. Atlantic Basin: NHC tropical weather outlook still has a 10% chance of development for area of showers in northern Gulf, but unlikely to see a depression.

  2. Eastern Pacific Basin: Area closer to Hawaii than Mexico could develop (40%) in deep tropics nearing Central Pacific

  3. Western Pacific Basin: Busy basin with 3 named storms including Typhoon Co-May (11W) impacting the Philippines and new TD 12W (Krosa).

Good morning/afternoon! The Atlantic remains very quiet with the only \u201chope\u201d of a tropical depression hinging upon a backdoor trough axis with showers in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Currently a 10% chance according to NHC of further development into this weekend before the risk goes to 0%.

\"\"

Looking into August, the 12-15 day period is continuing to light up in the ECMWF ensemble model systems for storm / hurricane development in the western Atlantic off the U.S. East Coast. Still a low chance < 20% but now persistent.

Weather Trader is a reader-supported daily newsletter authored by Dr. Ryan Maue. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Large Basin view of Simulated Water Vapor | ECMWF 00z

\"\"

Nothing has developed in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic for several reasons:

It\u2019s early in the season so even into the end of July, tropical waves coming off Africa are not likely to develop even with warm ocean temperatures. Also, the influence of Saharan Air Layers and dust to the north of the waves = stable and dry => suppression of convection. You can also see from the orange and light brown colors on the simulated water vapor imagery that middle latitude air is being shunted into the tropics from wave breaking and troughs \u2014 with help from the SAL.

The dry, dusty and stable (warm) air near the surface and in the boundary layer puts a lid on convective development. And, we\u2019ve had a lot of SAL influence on the tropics (MDR)

The large-scale or basin scale environment is unfavorable for tropical storm formation with anomalously high pressure and sinking air (subsidence). Note, the Eastern Pacific is also dead after a fast start = hemispheric tropical basin dead period.

However, into August, there may be a change in the sub-seasonal signals to more favorable as the Eastern Pacific gets going in 7-10 days meaning the Atlantic could follow in 2 weeks. The AIFS-Ensembles from ECMWF do show more action albeit low chance into August.

Reminder, the peak of Atlantic hurricane season is around September 10th, still 7 weeks away, and a lot can change when it comes to tropical meteorology.

Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days | Atlantic Basin

\"\"

Features: tropical wave now into the central MDR moving steadily westward to Lesser Antilles in a few days, but no development

Sunday: tropical wave emerges into Atlanta but opens within a few days. Again, not seeing development. There may be a short-lived surface circulation that shows up on visible satellite, but lack of convection won\u2019t sustain it. It will take 7-days to reach the Lesser Antilles.

We need to closely watch these waves for gaining latitude and finding more hospitable environment in the subtropics for tropical cyclogenesis.

Subscribe now

Thank you to readers continuing into this Hurricane Season. My goal is to keep you informed about ongoing extreme weather events inside and outside of the tropics, but also a week (hopefully) heads up on what\u2019s coming. I\u2019ll be using a variety of weather modeling output, some of it may be unfamiliar, but it\u2019s state-of-the-art and industry leading standard.

Atlantic Basin Outlook

\"\"

10% chance of development into weekend across the Northern Gulf of Mexico.

Eastern Atlantic Satellite Image

\"\"

Tropical wave has a large circulation but not much convection. Dust / Saharan Air buries the subtropical Atlantic from Africa well westward.

\"\"

Clear conditions from the Bahamas to Puerto Rico and the subtropical \u201cwarm pool\u201d

NASA GEOS-5 | 00z DUST Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) | 10-d Forecast

\"\"

Tropical waves will need to deal with continued dust plumes into August. The intensity of early August plume seems to have decreased in today\u2019s model cycle.

Atlantic Ocean Surface Temperatures (SST) | Anomaly

Ocean temperatures plenty warm from African coast to the Lesser Antilles with 28\u00b0C corridor or warm pool extending into the western Atlantic around Bermuda. However, the anomaly (which doesn\u2019t do anything) remains near-normal or slightly below in the Main Development Region (MDR) from Caribbean to Africa.

Gulf of Mexico where the 10% wave spins is > 30\u00b0C \u2014 very warm \u2014 and evidence that you need more than \u201cwarm water\u201d to form a tropical storm.

Tropical Atlantic Satellite Imagery

\"\"

Central MDR has some convection associated with a tropical wave but it\u2019s not much.

ECMWF Precipitation and MSLP | Next 6-days

\"\"

Better / more impressive collection of moisture / convection into the central MDR in 6-days \u2026 looks healthier than whatever we\u2019ve seen in the past several weeks.

Germany ICON 12z | Precipitable Water Next 5-days

\"\"

My favorite parameter \u2026 Huge amount of tropical moisture continues to rotate around a deep layer ridge anchored over the Southeast U.S.

And, we may see yet another repeat of this weather pattern that brings a blob of moisture from decaying front / backdoor trough into the Southeast.

NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 06z

\"\"

Atlantic Tropical Waves = 3 but not developing. The disturbance in the Gulf is associated with a trough (10%).

\"\"

Medium range ensemble model outlook

These are 51-realizations of the same model with different initial conditions. Each ensemble gets equal ~2% weight in a mean calculation.

ECMWF Ensembles 00z | Next 12-days | Active Tracks

\"\"

ECMWF Ensembles 00z | Next 15-days | Active Tracks

\"\"

We do have hurricanes in the ensembles (EPS 00z) with 5/51 showing a powerful system in the western Atlantic. However, that is only 10%, so not a strong signal. We will monitor, of course.

Compare with AIFS Ensembles | Next 12-days | Active Tracks

\"\"

Next 14-days

\"\"

The 10-14 day period lights up with the AIFS-ENS v1 showing many systems. This is a more coherent signal that deserves attention.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Update

\"\"

Area of convection well SE of Hawaii showing some signs of development but any storm formation will be slow. NHC has a 40% chance \u2026

\"\"

ECMWF in 4-days shows a few areas of vorticity and circulation of moisture transport that may indicate a tropical depression (weak) or storm.

AIFS-Ensembles through 6-days

\"\"

Weak lows in the far southern tropics along the ITCZ

Day 10 Active Tracks

\"\"

Better chance of significant storm off Mexico going to die over cooler waters.

Western Pacific Tropical Update

\"\"
\"\"

Busy Western Pacific with multiple systems underway. I still think newly designated TD Krosa (12W) will become the most impressive \u2014 the further east / detached from the main monsoon trough. Inside that mess, 10W and 11W are underway, and Co-May (11W) has become a Typhoon right off the western coast of Luzon.

\"\"

SST and Anomaly

The ocean temperatures have been much, much warmer than normal east of Japan into the northern Pacific due to the persistent monsoon trough / convection that spurs downstream ridging and calm winds / lack of storms.

Tropical Storm 10W (Francisco)

Weakening and won\u2019t be around much longer.

Typhoon 11W (Co-May)

Landfall over Luzon as a minimal typhoon (65-knots) and it will then weaken and heat NE.

Tropical Depression 12W (Krosa)

JTWC is not bullish on Krosa but the ECMWF ensembles show some intense members in the 950s and 960s mb central pressure good enough for a powerful Typhoon.

\"\"

As it\u2019s not affect land, we can watch Krosa develop and it may reach \u201cmajor typhoon\u201d status.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Atlantic Basin : NHC tropical weather outlook still has a 10% chance of development for area of showers in northern Gulf, but unlikely to see a depression.

Eastern Pacific Basin : Area closer to Hawaii than Mexico could develop (40%) in deep tropics nearing Central Pacific

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:14Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/july-24-2025-hurricane-season-thursday" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "169145857.july-24-2025-hurricane-season-thursday", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/july-24-2025-hurricane-season-thursday", "slug": "july-24-2025-hurricane-season-thursday", "path": "/mp/680/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/680/", "desk_label": "Tropics", "digest": "793b1bd2b250d8868e9ee4f0e183477a3f93e30771b93e2b50b0757d6d02b157" }