{ "number": 679, "headline": "July 23, 2025 Hurricane Season Wednesday", "standfirst": "Atlantic basin may wake up in early August as ensembles light up", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-07-23", "published": "2025-07-23T15:58:28.845000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Day 53]. My expectation for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. So far, 3 named storms, 0 hurricanes, and 0 majors

Wednesday\u2019s Tropical Update

  1. Atlantic Basin: NHC tropical weather outlook has a 10% chance of development for area of rain in northern Gulf from disturbance yet to cross Florida.

  2. Eastern Pacific Basin: Chance for 1-2 systems in the next 7-10 days

  3. Western Pacific Basin: Busy basin with Tropical Storm Francisco (10W), newly formed TD 11W, and Invest 98W. The latter will likely become a strong typhoon.

Good morning/afternoon! The Atlantic is currently very quiet with the only \u201chope\u201d of a tropical depression hinging upon a backdoor trough axis retrograding WSW through the Southeast. Currently a 10% chance according to NHC of further development into this weekend before the risk goes to 0%.

Looking into August, the 10-15 day period is beginning to light up on the ensemble model systems for storm / hurricane development in the western Atlantic off the U.S. East Coast.

Weather Trader is a reader-supported daily newsletter authored by Dr. Ryan Maue. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Current Satellite Imagery

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The showers and storms moving through the northern Gulf are well out ahead of the main area of interest still to the east on the Atlantic side of NE Florida.

The model depictions do not show much at all \u2014 just a band of weak vorticity associated with a trough and the countervailing flow of the very strong Bermuda high.

This is similar to the non-development of Invest 93L, which did help focus high-moisture content across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeast over the past several days. This is a repeat weather pattern.

Large Basin view of Simulated Water Vapor | ECMWF 00z

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Nothing has developed in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic for a bunch of reasons:

It\u2019s early in the season so even into the end of July, tropical waves coming off Africa are not likely to develop even with warm ocean temperatures. Also, the influence of Saharan Air Layers and dust to the north of the waves = stable and dry => suppression of convection. You can also see from the orange and light brown colors on the simulated water vapor imagery that middle latitude air is being shunted into the tropics from wave breaking and troughs \u2014 with help from the SAL.

The dry, dusty and stable (warm) air near the surface and in the boundary layer puts a lid on convective development.

The large-scale or basin scale environment is unfavorable for tropical storm formation with anomalously high pressure and sinking air. Note, the Eastern Pacific is also dead after a fast start = hemispheric tropical basin dead period.

However, into August, there may be a change in the sub-seasonal signals to more favorable as the Eastern Pacific gets going in 7-10 days meaning the Atlantic could follow in 10-14 days. The AIFS-Ensembles from ECMWF do show more action albeit low chance into August.

Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days | Atlantic Basin

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Features: tropical wave off Africa moving steadily westward to Lesser Antilles in 1-week, but no development

Sunday: tropical wave emerges into Atlanta but opens within a few days. Again, not seeing development. There may be a short-lived surface circulation that shows up on visible satellite, but lack of convection won\u2019t sustain it.

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Thank you to readers continuing into this Hurricane Season. My goal is to keep you informed about ongoing extreme weather events inside and outside of the tropics, but also a week (hopefully) heads up on what\u2019s coming. I\u2019ll be using a variety of weather modeling output, some of it may be unfamiliar, but it\u2019s state-of-the-art and industry leading standard.

Atlantic Basin Outlook

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10% chance of development into weekend across the Northern Gulf.

Eastern Atlantic Satellite Image

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Dust and dry air to the north of the weak tropical wave and the overall ITCZ/monsoon trough.

NASA GEOS-5 | 00z DUST Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) | 10-d Forecast

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Tropical waves will need to deal with continued dust plumes into August. I thought the intensity would wane significantly in the coming 1-2 weeks, but this model delivers a major plume on August 1st off Africa.

Atlantic Ocean Surface Temperatures (SST) | Anomaly

Ocean temperatures plenty warm from African coast to the Lesser Antilles with 28\u00b0C corridor or warm pool extending into the western Atlantic around Bermuda. However, the anomaly (which doesn\u2019t do anything) remains near-normal or slightly below in the Main Development Region (MDR) from Caribbean to Africa.

Tropical Atlantic Satellite Imagery

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A bit more convection in the eastern MDR with a tropical wave \u2014 more so that we\u2019ve seen in previous weeks.

ECMWF Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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My favorite parameter \u2026 fun to see the various interacting features in the atmosphere. The tropical Atlantic is not a friendly place for tropical storm formation during the next 6-days. The tropics are being infiltrated with dry, stable air from the subtropics in addition to dust and Saharan Air Layers. There are plenty of tropical waves but none can sustain convection and organize in the face of unfavorable background conditions.

ECMWF 00z depiction of Vorticity | Next 6-days

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The ribbon of vorticity in the northern Gulf does not develop. Not seeing anything in the MDR or elsewhere through July 29th.

NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 06z

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Atlantic Tropical Waves = 3 but not developing. The disturbance in the Gulf is associated with a trough.

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Medium range ensemble model outlook

These are 51-realizations of the same model with different initial conditions. Each ensemble gets equal ~2% weight in a mean calculation.

ECMWF Ensembles 00z | Next 15-days

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We do have hurricanes in the ensembles (EPS 00z) with 5/51 showing a powerful system in the western Atlantic. However, that is only 10%, so not a strong signal. We will monitor closely.

Compare with AIFS Ensembles | Next 10-days

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Next 15-days

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The 10-15 day period lights up with the AIFS-ENS v1 showing many systems. This is a more coherent signal that deserves attention.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Update

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A couple weak systems could become TD or TS out near Hawaii in 7-days. Also, another system south of Mexico should develop with better chance at a hurricane.

AIFS-Ensembles through 5-days

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Weak lows in the far southern tropics along the ITCZ

Day 10 Active Tracks

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Better chance of significant storm off Mexico going to die over cooler waters.

Western Pacific Tropical Update

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Busy / wild Western Pacific with multiple systems underway. Invest 98W will become the most impressive \u2014 the further east / detached from the main monsoon trough. Inside that mess, 10W and 11W are underway.

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Tropical Storm 10W (Francisco)

Forecast to head WNW but weaken as a minimal TS.

Tropical Storm 11W

Could become a typhoon as it loops near Luzon

Invest 98W

Models bullish in this system near Guam becoming more a powerful typhoon.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

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Atlantic Basin : NHC tropical weather outlook has a 10% chance of development for area of rain in northern Gulf from disturbance yet to cross Florida.

Eastern Pacific Basin : Chance for 1-2 systems in the next 7-10 days

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