{ "number": 667, "headline": "July 9, 2025 Hurricane Season Wednesday", "standfirst": "Seasonal forecast slightly downgraded but still above normal from CSU", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-07-10", "published": "2025-07-10T02:10:14.946000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Day 39]. My expectation for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. So far, 3 named storm, 0 hurricanes, and 0 majors.

Sorry for the late update, but today was hectic with the hearing this morning, and then a coding sprint to incorporate the new AIFS-ENS into a trading platform.

Wednesday\u2019s Tropical Update

  1. Atlantic Basin: Nothing brewing for next 7-days, or 2-weeks from Ensembles

  2. Eastern Pacific Basin: The basin has also gone dormant after a fast start

  3. Western Pacific Basin: Activity will return in coming days as monsoon trough remains active

In the News

Colorado State University (Klotzbach) slightly reduced the 2025 Hurricane Season forecast for the Atlantic to 16/8/3 \u2014 still above my prediction for year, but I\u2019m not seeing above-normal activity (using 1995-2024 baseline)

\"\"

\u201cWe have decreased our forecast slightly and now call for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season.

The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear. High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons.

However, we also anticipate the tropical Pacific to be characterized by ENSO neutral conditions. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time.

A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.\u201d

\"\"

NOAA political appointees [Dr. Neil Jacobs and Mr. Taylor Jordan] appeared before the Senate Commerce committee this morning. The mood in the room was somber due to the Texas flooding tragedy, but many questions were asked in a collegial manner about what could have been done better to save lives.

Takeaways for me (Link to good article in Government Executive)

The key to success at NOAA will be moving the weather research activities much closer to the National Weather Service users \u2014 and the public \u2014 instead of being siloed off at OAR and various centers around the country. The timeline for R2O was exceedingly long to the point of stasis. Everything model related is delayed by years, not joking. Meanwhile, ECMWF upgrades its suite of global models 1-2 times per year with a cycle framework, and all hands on deck focusing on the mission.

Atlantic Water Vapor Forecast Next 8-days

\"\"

The brown and black are indicators of dry air and troughs from the middle latitudes impinging upon the tropics. ECMWF model simulated water vapor shows well the translation of Saharan Air Layers across the entire Atlantic in a 7-day time frame.

A reprieve in the dust in 7-days with a stronger wave coming off Africa (July 15) might have a better chance of developing.

Current Satellite Imagery | United States

\"\"

\"\"

Offshore flow = crystal clear and oppressively hot across the Southwest.

Temperatures | 9:00 PM ET

\"\"

Very hot across the Southwest \u2026 118\u00b0F in Phoenix today.

\"\"

Temperature Anomaly | 9:00 PM ET

\"\"

Overall, the Lower 48 is 0.4\u00b0F above average with storms breaking the summer heat pattern across the south and cooling temperatures in the 70s.

Lows on Thursday

\"\"

Highs for Thursday

\"\"

Lower 48 average is 88\u00b0F with 132 million at/above 90\u00b0F

Current Radar Across the Mid-Atlantic

\"\"

RRFS-A Radar Simulation Next 18-hours | through 1 PM Thursday

\"\"

Weather on Thursday

\"\"

NWS Precipitation Next 48-hours

Heavy rain continues across VA/MD/DE and NJ

NWS WPC Precipitation Next 7-days

\"\"

ECMWF 12Z | Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 8-days

\"\"

The Pacific High Pressure cell comes back and breaks down after a week. Combined with the Bermuda high, this means a steady flow of moisture out of the Caribbean into the center of the U.S. repeating the pattern we saw in late June.

Flow out of the Northwest and Canada will keep the Midwest and Great Lakes cooler than could be expected into mid-July. A lot of \u201cblue and green\u201d on the maps for Week 2 \u2014 and that\u2019s not a heat dome.

Weekly Temperature Anomaly | ECMWF 12z Ensembles

Subscribe now

Thank you to readers continuing into this Hurricane Season. My goal is to keep you informed about ongoing extreme weather events inside and outside of the tropics, but also a week (hopefully) heads up on what\u2019s coming. I\u2019ll be using a variety of weather modeling output, some of it may be unfamiliar, but it\u2019s state-of-the-art and industry leading standard.

Next 8-days ECMWF 12z Precipitation and MSLP | Atlantic

\"\"

Lots of green but it\u2019s not organized into a tropical storm \u2026 and that\u2019s great \u2014 through July 17th.

Atlantic Basin Outlook

7-Day NHC Outlook

\"\"

Eastern Atlantic Satellite Image

\"\"

One healthy looking tropical with convection about 36-hours from coming off the continent. We\u2019ll see how much of it can survive over the warming waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Otherwise, the basin is devoid of convection.

NASA GEOS-5 | 12z DUST Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) | 5-days Forecast

\"\"

Massive dust plumes continue \u2026 not surprising for July, but eventually they need to dial back for the African Easterly Waves to survive!

Part of the reason why the Atlantic MDR can\u2019t get going with organized convection is perpetual plumes of dust from the Saharan. These air layers are warm and stable above the surface and inhibit convection. The plumes circulate clockwise (high pressure) with a major amount of dust heading into the Gulf over the next few days in 2 waves.

Atlantic Ocean Surface Temperatures (SST) | Anomaly

The marine heat wave across the western Atlantic centered on Bermuda continues \u2026 with 28\u00b0C \u201cwarm pool\u201d expanded across the subtropics. However, cooler water to the south and then really cool < 26\u00b0C to coast of Africa at 20\u00b0N will zero out any chances of tropical storm unless a wave can exit Africa at low-latitude and survive the SAL onslaught.

Tropical Atlantic Satellite Imagery

\"\"

NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 18z

\"\"

Atlantic Tropical Waves = 4 but only scattered showers observed as the large-scale environment is not conducive for tropical development.

\"\"

Medium range ensemble model outlook

These are 51-realizations of the same model with different initial conditions. Each ensemble gets equal ~2% weight in a mean calculation.

ECMWF Ensembles 12z | 15-Days | All storm Tracks

\"\"

Ghost town through July 24.

ECMWF 15-days Control Run | Cyclone Tracks

\"\"

If you want strong cyclones, then head down into the Southern Ocean for major storms around Antarctica! Except for some close-in developments in the Western Pacific, and one lone storm in the Eastern Pacific, the rest of the global tropics remains quiet into the last week of July.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Update

\"\"
\"\"

ECMWF 12z Ensembles | 7-days Storm Tracks

\"\"

A fair number of options out of 51-ensembles through 7-days, so I\u2019d expect a 20% hatch coming up tomorrow from NHC.

Western Pacific Tropical Update

\"\"

15-days All Ensemble Tracks

\"\"

Looks like a mess for 2-weeks \u2014 but that\u2019s a great way to show that the Western Pacific monsoon trough can spin up multiple storms whenever \u2014 but they are hard to predict and HUGE uncertainty when there\u2019s no incipient vortex, but instead an unstable curtain of vorticity and very deep tropical moisture pooled over 28\u00b0C and warmer SST.

Leave a comment

Ryan\u2019s Notes:

June 2025: We use the ECMWF for medium-range prediction because the GFS can\u2019t be trusted due to false-alarm bias, and unrealistic intensification of tropical convection into spurious (ghost) storms. I don\u2019t agree this is a good thing like CNN.

We can look at the GFS every day for weeks and see a modeled tropical storm or hurricane in the Caribbean or Gulf especially after Day 10. However, this is a known bias/false alarm problem with spurious convective \u2014 vorticity spin-ups due to the convective parameterization or estimation of vorticity generation due to intense diabatic heating. Perhaps it\u2019s worthwhile to show what will not happen.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Sorry for the late update, but today was hectic with the hearing this morning, and then a coding sprint to incorporate the new AIFS-ENS into a trading platform.

Atlantic Basin : Nothing brewing for next 7-days, or 2-weeks from Ensembles

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:14Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/july-9-2025-hurricane-season-wednesday" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "167955856.july-9-2025-hurricane-season-wednesday", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/july-9-2025-hurricane-season-wednesday", "slug": "july-9-2025-hurricane-season-wednesday", "path": "/mp/667/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/667/", "desk_label": "Tropics", "digest": "97e3f86e70cbeb34ec23403daaec98533dff1acd79d3773942adeedaf710b4c9" }