{ "number": 571, "headline": "April 9, 2025 Wednesday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Drying out with trend toward cooler Canadian origin air", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-04-09", "published": "2025-04-09T15:15:29.137000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Good Morning!

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The new GOES-19 [East] imagery is not processing this morning, so I\u2019ll post the full disk image of GOES-West showing the progress of sunrise at 7:30 AM PT.

I\u2019m sure you\u2019ve seen the footage of flooding in Cincinnati as the Ohio River has risen well past flood stage. In the last 30-days, the Lower 48 USA has received about 180 Trillion gallons of precipitation which is 3.32\u201d if spread across the country evenly.

In the Ohio River and Mississippi River Valleys, many states received 2-3x their normal monthly rainfall.

Kentucky: 8.3T, Arkansas: 8.2T, Tennessee 7.4T, Ohio: 5.1T, Missouri: 6.2T

TX: 11.2T, WA: 7.2T, OR: 8.6T, CA: 10.0T

Last 30-days Precipitation

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Last 30-days Precipitation % of Normal = 118% for Lower 48

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Zoom on Ohio River Valley

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300% to 400% across Kentucky

Also, Great Lakes highly above normal > 250% in the tip of the mitt of Michigan around Gaylord, east of Traverse City.

Weather Today

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Light precipitation in the Midwest and Great Lakes within the cold air from the Canadian trough.

Slight Chance of Severe Weather on Thursday

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After writing off severe weather chances for the next week in yesterday\u2019s post, we see a Day 2 slight risk show up in the SPC convective outlook.

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The main risk is gusty winds and hail with a potential derecho into Alabama and Mississippi.

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HRRR Simulated Radar Through Friday Morning

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A trough with an area of low pressure will track out of the Great Lakes into the Middle Atlantic, and on the western side of the circulation, bands of rainfall including potentially severe thunderstorms later on Thursday.

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Wind gusts from HRRR at Thursday 9 PM ET show the characteristic gusty/damaging winds from a mesoscale convective complex moving very quickly due south. We\u2019ll see if this remains in the model guidance later this afternoon, but this could be a surprise wind damage event.

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High Temperatures on Wednesday

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Low Temperatures on Thursday

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Only 26 million below freezing.

High Temperatures on Thursday

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Pushing 102\u00b0F in Phoenix. 50s in the Great Lakes and 40s in New England = progress

Temperature Analysis | 10:00 AM ET

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Temperature Anomaly | 10:00 AM ET

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Overall the Lower 48 is -0.3\u00b0F below normal with central US warm while the middle Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northeast still with wintry chill

Storm Systems + Precipitation Type Next 6-Days

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Our next storm system loops into the middle Atlantic and then emerges off the coast by this weekend. 2-inches of rainfall for Maryland.

NWS 60-hours Precipitation

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Day 1 Rain through Thursday 8 AM

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Day 2 Rain Thursday 8 AM to Friday 8 AM

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60-Hour Snowfall \u2014 not much, thankfully.

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NWS WPC Precipitation | Next 7-days

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Blend of Models | 10 Days Precipitation and Snowfall

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ECMWF 06Z AIFS | Upper-Level Pattern for North America next 10-days

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Progressive pattern with favored western ridging and significant troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast keeping temperatures seasonably cool.

Quick Trip to Europe | Next 6-days

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Just a little map animation of the precipitation type and weather systems across Europe for fun.

14-day Ensemble Median Rainfall

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Probability of 1-inch of rainfall in the next 2-weeks

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14-Day Snowfall | Ensemble Median

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ECMWF EPS 00z | Weekly Temperature Anomaly

Week 1: April 9 - 15

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Week 2: April 16 - 22

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Who writes and researchers this Newsletter? Dr. Ryan N. Maue [X https://x.com/ryanmaue] with 20-years experience of daily weather model production and analysis. You may have seen my weather maps! I live in Atlanta but was born and raised in Northern Michigan. I know snow, and southern heat and humidity.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

The new GOES-19 [East] imagery is not processing this morning, so I\u2019ll post the full disk image of GOES-West showing the progress of sunrise at 7:30 AM PT.

I\u2019m sure you\u2019ve seen the footage of flooding in Cincinnati as the Ohio River has risen well past flood stage. In the last 30-days, the Lower 48 USA has received about 180 Trillion gallons of precipitation which is 3.32\u201d if spread across the country evenly.

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