{ "number": 489, "headline": "January 8, 2025 Wednesday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Winter Storm will create a mess across North Texas into the Southeast", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-01-09", "published": "2025-01-09T01:21:03.289000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

Good Wednesday evening.

A lot going on across the Southern tier of states from catastrophic Santa Ana wind fueled wildfires in Southern California, to a developing and potentially crippling winter storm from Texas to North Carolina.

Colder than normal temperatures look solidly locked past mid-January.

I\u2019ll start with the 48-hour HRRR simulated radar from 18z as it\u2019s the best way to visualize the complete mess over the next 2 days.

This system is directly a result of the upper-level low that I\u2019ve mentioned over the past 7-10 days \u2014 which wasn\u2019t in the A.I. models or ensemble means, and seemingly developed instead of the extreme Polar Vortex Arctic blast that was in the solutions.

A surface low develops along the Gulf Coast and scoots eastward rather rapidly. This storm event will feature rapidly transitioning precipitation types mainly because of temperatures aloft as near-surface temperatures will remain precariously close to freezing where ice/freezing rain/snow will mix.

\"\"

I\u2019ll post NWS maps for the outcomes since they are official and then suggest what may happen to their prognostications based upon new/updated weather model data. Eventually, everyone will reach the final destination of the most accurate forecast to communicate to the public.

Ice Accumulation

Widespread light amounts except up to 0.1\u201d around Dallas and 0.2\u201d in Atlanta metro. Obviously not good for travel or trees/power lines.

\"\"

NWS Snowfall Next 3-days

Quite a healthy swath of snowfall from North Texas (2\u201d-4\u201d) through Arkansas (up to 9\u201d) and then 2\u201d around Atlanta with 3\u201d-6\u201d from Nashville into Ohio. Quite the coverage!

\"\"

NWS QPF Next 3-days

Heavy QPF in the 2-inch or more range along the Texas Gulf Coast and up to 1\u201d or so into Alabama and Georgia. Thankfully this is NOT all falling as snow or we wouldn\u2019t be able to find our cars.

\"\"

North Texas Winter Weather Threat | Thursday

HRRR \u201cmixed\u201d bag of precipitation Thursday around Noon local.

\"\"

My meteograms help out to show the precipitation type changes and the 2-meter temperatures e.g. Dallas Fort Worth. I\u2019d like to get everyone access to these types of charts soon. HRRR has 5\u201d of snow snow and then some sleet, but really no p-type as rain. So, 0.9\u201d of QPF needs to dump out, and HRRR thinks mostly heavy, wet snow.

\"\"

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported daily newsletter. To receive ALL new posts and support Dr. Ryan Maue, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

NWS Snowfall Around Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex

2.3\u201d at KDFW with gradient from 1\u201d to 4\u201d across North Texas

\"\"
\"\"
\"\"

Crazy to see Little Rock loading up with 9\u201d of snowfall.

\"\"

Comparison with the ECMWF 18z HRES model

Much more snowfall around Dallas and North Texas \u2014 significantly so compared to NWS.

\"\"

The precipitation type is almost all snow with 1.0\u201d of QPF with temperatures in the low-30s.

\"\"

Not sure how/why to dismiss this very consistent forecast, but even if we see less snowfall, that QPF still needs to fall and it\u2019s probably going to be sleet or freezing rain, which isn\u2019t an improvement. I guess we\u2019ll know by the 00z update what\u2019s going on for sure.

Storm Moves East into the Southeast on Friday

This is shaping up to be a complete mess with snow and sleet and freezing rain shifting to all rain eventually on Friday.

Friday morning 9:00 AM | HRRR

Mixed frozen precipitation into Macon, Georgia is quite rare. Heavy thump of snow for all of Atlanta metro.

\"\"

NWS has 1.5\u201d at the airport increasing to 2-3\u201d northward into the mountains.

\"\"

ECMWF 18z has about 3\u201d of snowfall but with with the mixture, I\u2019m fine with less as a forecast. Later into Friday afternoon, a very cold rain will fall \u2014 and perhaps freeze later overnight as temperature remain around freezing. Huge black ice threat.

\"\"

ECMWF 00z Insanely Cold Forecast

This was an all-timer forecast run again from ECMWF HRES, which historic cold. Fortunately, it moderated for 12z, but that piqued my curiosity about why the unperturbed or control member of the ensemble so often as the most extreme outcomes. The odds are 1 out of 51 that this can happen, but it seems to more often than that! Not sure what\u2019s going on.

\"\"

Denver had -26\u00b0F on Jan 21 for a low from HRES.

\"\"

And, from the ensemble minimum matrix, that was by far the coldest option. There are other very cold members, too, but not that extreme. Just something to watch and think about into third week of January.

\"\"

7:15 PM ET Temperatures across the Lower 48

\"\"

Lower 48 temperatures are cold with average of about 29.4\u00b0F. 188 million freezing, but only 30K subzero, so it could be a lot worse.

Temperature Anomaly | 7:15 PM ET

\"\"

Overall the Lower 48 is -6.2\u00b0F (below normal) with broad swatch of green (at least 15\u00b0F below normal)

Thursday Low Temperatures

\"\"

Subzero temperatures almost entirely gone from the Lower 48. Yay!

89% of the Lower 48 is freezing, and 244 million population. Lower 48 average is 19.4\u00b0F

Thursday High Temperatures

\"\"

Still 116 million below freezing for daytime highs. Lower 48 average is 35.3\u00b0F

Friday Low Temperatures

\"\"

233 million at/below freezing, and 86% of the area of Lower 48.

NWS WPC 7-Day Precipitation | QPF

\"\"

1.1\u201d falling in DFW \u2026 up to 3\u201d along Texas Gulf Coast during the next 3-days

6-Days Ensemble Snowfall 50th Percentile Solution

9\u201d is the ensemble median in Dallas Fort Worth, and 10-12\u201d into Little Rock. This assumes 10:1 ratios, so we should slash them by 1/4 to 1/3 so 6\u201d is fair.

\"\"
3\\"","alt":"","staticGalleryImage":{"type":"image/png","src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3dad4629-f6b3-4908-b6a9-2aa4fe282f36_1456x474.png"}},"isEditorNode":true}\">

Extend to 15-days

\"\"

Best practice is to always to use Ensembles, sorted according to an event threshold for probability mapping!

Probability in the next 15-days of at least 6-inches of snowfall

\"\"

ECMWF EPS 12z | 5-Day Chunk Temperature Anomaly

Days 1-5: January 8 - January 12

\"\"

Days 6-10: January 13 - January 17

\"\"

Days 11-15: January 18 - January 22

\"\"

Cold in the Western U.S. \u2014 and that\u2019s got to come east for the last days of January. Boo.

For new followers coming from Substack, X, or friends, you\u2019ll get daily updates of mainly Lower 48 weather including winter storms, heat waves, hurricanes, and now Arctic blast. The goal is to provide a \u201cheads up\u201d to impending extreme weather in the coming 1-2 weeks \u2014 medium range weather prediction. I use the best and most advanced Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems including ECMWF ensembles, NOAA GFS, and the state-of-the-art A.I. systems.

Who writes and researchers this Newsletter? Dr. Ryan N. Maue [X https://x.com/ryanmaue] with 20-years experience of daily weather model production and analysis. You may have seen my weather maps! I live in Atlanta but was born and raised in Northern Michigan. I know snow, and southern heat and humidity.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

A lot going on across the Southern tier of states from catastrophic Santa Ana wind fueled wildfires in Southern California, to a developing and potentially crippling winter storm from Texas to North Carolina.

Colder than normal temperatures look solidly locked past mid-January.

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:15Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/january-8-2025-wednesday-winter-weather" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "154432148.january-8-2025-wednesday-winter-weather", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/january-8-2025-wednesday-winter-weather", "slug": "january-8-2025-wednesday-winter-weather", "path": "/mp/489/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/489/", "desk_label": "Winter", "digest": "505067a550db4cd66a2fe1c162cf64f7961be0a76b5d6358b1a984ea0216ec4f" }