{ "number": 437, "headline": "November 18, 2024 Monday Winter Weather Update", "standfirst": "Multiple powerful storms this week", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-11-18", "published": "2024-11-18T16:24:08.581000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

Monday Headlines

  1. Today: Classic mountain lee low pressure moves north into the Plains with central pressure in the 980s mb w/heavy rain and chance of severe weather in Texas.

  2. Into Tuesday: Heavy Gulf Coast and Southeast Rainfall from rich, tropical moisture feed out of Gulf of Mexico.

  3. Tuesday \u2014 Wednesday: Very intense \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d develops over Pacific off the Northwest US coast with pressure falling from 1010 mb to 943 mb in 24-hours = 67 mb/24 hrs. Intense atmospheric river and heavy precipitation (rain, mountain snow) totals across the Pac NW.

  4. Thursday \u2014 Friday: shortwave out of the Lee of the Rockies (Colorado) combines with energy left over from Plains storm \u2014> develops into yet another powerful winter storm [984 mb] over the eastern Great Lakes. Significant snowfall chance over a small area on the southern side of the low pressure center.

Monday morning across the Lower 48

\"\"

Powerful storm system ramping up across the central Plains with pressure already falling into the 980s.

\"\"

Very warm, moist tropical air ahead of the storm system, but not enough cold air on the back side of the low to induce heavy snowfall. This storm system is all rain!

To continue supporting Weather Trader into the Winter 2024-25, please consider subscribing or upgrading to an annual commitment with 10% off incentive through November 30.

Get 10% off forever

Radar Simulation through early Tuesday

\"\"

Monday evening front positions

\"\"

West Coast Bomb Cyclone | Tuesday

This is a historical \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d with 67 mb / 24 hour pressure fall with deepest barometric pressure at 946 mb. An intense atmospheric river associated with the cold front will smash into the West Coast mainly Washington and Oregon.

\"\"
\"\"
\"\"
\"\"

Note there isn\u2019t cold enough air behind the storm system to trigger heavy ocean snowfall. It\u2019s a bit early in the cold/winter season to get thick layer cold air from Alaska/Arctic to maintain its intensity over the still rather warm waters of the NE Pacific.

\"\"

Impressive wind gusts well in excess of Hurricane Force by late Tuesday into early Wednesday, which may impact the coast at higher elevations.

Great Lakes Winter Storm

Precipitation Type Wed-Thurs | ECMWF 06z HRES

\"\"

Forecast snowfall from ECMWF 06z

\"\"

Potential for quite heavy snowfall over areas with high population including Detroit and Cleveland. Might see some jackpot amounts!

6-Day Precipitation Type Forecast | ECMWF 06z

\"\"

Tuesday morning

\"\"

Quite a plume of tropical moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico!

\"\"

Precipitation through Wednesday morning

\"\"

ECMWF 06z AIFS | Next 10-days | Height Anomaly

\"\"

Always cool animation of the upper-level height pattern at 500 mb (anomaly) showing the evolution of troughs across North America

The Eastern U.S. trough is intense with marginal cold air behind it. This brief Arctic blast will quickly abate as the hemisphere remains very warm relative to normal. Still a ways to go before Arctic air builds to the point where the entire Lower 48 is threatened with a \u201cdeep freeze\u201d.

High Temperatures on Monday

\"\"

Low Temperatures on Tuesday

\"\"

High Temperatures on Tuesday

\"\"

Larger View of Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 8-days

\"\"

Snowfall Forecasts

ECMWF 00z | 7-day Ensemble Median Snowfall

\"\"

Good chances of at least 1-inch of snowfall across the eastern Great Lakes into the Appalachians of WV.

\"\"

Probability of 3-inches or more is in the 40-60% range across northern Ohio.

\"\"

NOAA Blend of Models 7-day Snowfall Accumulation

Quick peek at the Blend of Models showing the \u201censemble\u201d smoothing with significantly less extreme snowfall amounts across the eastern Great Lakes. This tool is of limited use for longer-range snowfall amounts unless you use the range of values like with the ECMWF EPS e.g. median or 25%-75% percentile range (more on that this week).

\"\"

Total Precipitation next 7-Days | NOAA WPC

\"\"
\"\"

EPS | Weekly Temperature Anomaly

Week 1: November 18 - November 24

\"\"

Week 2: November 25 - December 01

\"\"

Quite a load of cold air building over Western Canada with persistent pattern of warmth across the Eastern U.S.

Snowfall Analysis | October 1, 2024 \u2014 today

\"\"

Precipitation Analysis Last 30-days [inches]

\"\"

Quick trip to Europe!

Significant winter weather \u2014 cold air and snowfall for our friends across the pond.

ICON EU model temperature anomaly Thursday morning (06z)

\"\"

Total snowfall next 7.5-days! More arrives after this juncture, too.

\"\"

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! I actually create all of my content from scratch.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Monday Headlines

Today: Classic mountain lee low pressure moves north into the Plains with central pressure in the 980s mb w/heavy rain and chance of severe weather in Texas.

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:15Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/november-18-2024-monday-winter-weather" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "151825067.november-18-2024-monday-winter-weather", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/november-18-2024-monday-winter-weather", "slug": "november-18-2024-monday-winter-weather-update", "path": "/mp/437/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/437/", "desk_label": "Winter", "digest": "b79a21fa197a925e596e4fd01cfab6bbca8dd2e9a1c925bafe42afa9c4678e5b" }