{ "number": 432, "headline": "November 12, 2024 Tuesday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Hurricane Sara development imminent", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-11-12", "published": "2024-11-12T23:31:09.310000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Thank you to loyal subscribers who made it through a very busy Atlantic hurricane season. But it\u2019s not over by a long-shot with Hurricane Sara in the medium range forecasts with potential to affect the Lower 48 unlike Rafael. The upper-level steering currents are very favorable for rapid intensification and then a rapid track through the Gulf of Mexico across Florida.

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Entirely free posts have dwindled to about 1-per week but I\u2019d like everyone the opportunity to keep up with the daily winter weather \u2014 especially with the upgraded ECMWF weather model and various A.I. tools. All maps, data and analysis are mine.

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported daily newsletter now well into 2nd Year. To receive new posts and support my work/research, please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Before diving into the tropics, I\u2019d like to show the snow depth across Colorado and the huge impact upon near-surface temperatures this evening. Still 1-3 feet of snow on the ground and it\u2019s not going anywhere for a little while as temperatures remain quite cold.

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Temperatures in the 20s and 30s rather than 60s.

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Overall, quite mild across the Southeast under sunny skies earlier.

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The only inclement weather to speak of is across the Pacific Northwest and upper-Midwest. Invest 99L is lurking south of Hispaniola in the Caribbean.

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Atlantic Tropical Update

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NHC up to 90% chance of development with Invest 99L \u2014> Sara

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Deep convection will move westward south of Jamaica and could go fast into Tropical Depression stage in the next 2-days.

ECMWF EPS Ensemble signals for tropical disturbance

It\u2019s highly likely that Tropical Storm Sara forms in the Caribbean by this weekend.

Day 3 \u2014 November 15 12z

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The area of low pressure drifts west but remains over very warm ocean water through 3-days.

Day 5 \u2014 November 17 12z

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Then, likely TS/HU Sara moves east and begins a loop process.

Day 7 \u2014 November 19 12z

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At this point, there are many ensembles with major hurricane potential \u2014 up to Category 5 that take a more typical NW track into the Gulf of Mexico.

SST on Sunday (Day 5) in the Gulf of Mexico

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Quick break to show the ocean temperatures are warm enough for a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico but significantly cooler after the passage of Rafael and onset of mid-November cooler days.

Day 8 \u2014 November 20 12z

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More intense members follow a southern track over the Loop Current

Day 9 \u2014 November 21 12z

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Summary: high likelihood of Hurricane Sara with coin flip signal to impact Florida in 7-9 days.

GFS 18z ramps up Sara to Category 5

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In only 5-days, GFS 18z blows up Sara to Category 5 suggesting a HIGHLY favorable upper-level atmospheric environment for intensification.

Various track scenarios shift along the Florida peninsula \u2014 18z is further north while 12z was over South Florida. Either way, GFS is ominous.

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7-Day Precipitation Forecast | ECMWF 12z

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ECMWF AIFS 12z | Next 10-days | Height Anomaly

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Interesting to see ECMWF AIFS (now running from initial conditions of the 49r1 cycle) lowering the boom with the Polar Vortex on the central and eastern U.S. behind whatever becomes of Sara. This is a major trough and would be a freeze into the Southeast + a major snowstorm for the Great Lakes.

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That is probably a blizzard for Thursday November 21.

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ECMWF Integrated Vapor Transport | 10-days

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ECMWF HRES 12z takes powerful Hurricane Sara on a looping track around the Caribbean but crashes into the Yucatan potentially disrupting the circulation prior to heading into the Gulf of Mexico and over cooler waters.

Low Temperatures on Wednesday

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High Temperatures on Wednesday

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Snowfall Forecasts

ECMWF 12z | 10-day Ensemble Median Snowfall Forecast

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Probability of 1\u201d snowfall through 10-days

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Probability of 1-inch is creeping up significantly in the Great Lakes as ensembles pick upon the winter storm potential.

NOAA Blend of Models 10-day Snowfall Accumulation

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Total Precipitation next 7-Days | NOAA WPC

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EPS | Weekly Temperature Anomaly

Week 1: November 12 - November 18

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Week 2: November 19 - November 25

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! I actually create all of my content from scratch.

Weather Trader is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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Entirely free posts have dwindled to about 1-per week but I\u2019d like everyone the opportunity to keep up with the daily winter weather \u2014 especially with the upgraded ECMWF weather model and various A.I. tools. All maps, data and analysis are mine.

Before diving into the tropics, I\u2019d like to show the snow depth across Colorado and the huge impact upon near-surface temperatures this evening. Still 1-3 feet of snow on the ground and it\u2019s not going anywhere for a little while as temperatures remain quite cold.

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