{ "number": 411, "headline": "Oct 9, 2024 Wednesday Morning Hurricane Milton", "standfirst": "Florida landfall in next 18-hours with destructive surge and winds", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-10-09", "published": "2024-10-09T13:55:28.612000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Wednesday Morning Headlines

Hurricane Milton IR Satellite

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At 9:34 AM Hurricane Milton eye is gone on IR and appears to be rapidly degrading appearance with ragged cloud canopy eroded from the west by dry air. Don\u2019t let that appearance fool anyone about the extreme (Category 5 accumulated) wind field and kinetic energy expanding 100s of miles.

8 AM Track of Milton | NHC Forecast

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8 AM ET | NHC Forecast Track

Bit slower progress of Milton as official landfall will be after 2 AM on Thursday as a Category 4 hurricane likely over Sarasota Bay \u2014 just south of Tampa Bay. However, the large size of Milton will mean impacts still spread over the entire Tampa Bay area and then across the Florida peninsula exiting the state around Melbourne. Orlando will be included in the risk area for Hurricane Force wind gusts.

After 2 pm on Thursday, the center of Milton will be exiting the Atlantic coast of Florida.

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Intensity and Impacts of Milton

Wind shear will take its toll on Milton reducing the maximum wind speed / intensity through Category 4 \u2026 the initial condition here was 5 AM ET and Milton was 140-knots and Cat 5.

Note, Milton will maintain hurricane status across the entire Florida peninsula with powerful winds on the east Atlantic coast of Florida!

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Landfall intensity: Category 3 110-knots and pressure in the mid-950s

Milton will remain a hurricane while crossing Florida and become extratropical possibly late Thursday.

Storm Surge Impacts

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Maximum storm surge of 8-12 feet in Tampa Bay slightly down from 10-15 feet from previous forecasts. However, the much higher surge of up to 15-feet extends south to Boca Grande.

Wind Gusts Impacts

NWS maximum wind gust swath during Milton\u2019s passage across Florida showing the footprint of 100-mph+ gusts extending just south of Interstate 4 to Orlando.

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Maximum wind gusts of 100-130 mph include over the waters of Tampa Bay and surrounding cities to the south including Bradenton and Sarasota.

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This will be a hurricane for the Atlantic coast of Florida as well as the storm circulation emerges over water and friction from land is gone \u2014 wind speeds will accelerate out of the SSE. Forecast max gust in Melbourne > 81 mph w/90 mph possible near the coast.

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Model Depiction of Wind Gusts to Show Potential

RRFS-A 11z | Faster Landfall Solution

Wind gusts in mph

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HRRR 11z Wind Gusts | Slower Track Solution

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Rainfall Impacts Maps

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NOAA WPC shows a large swath of rain of > 12-inches from TPA to Melbourne across the state from SW to NE

More detailed NWS has 14-18 inches surrounding Tampa Bay with the heaviest rain north of the center.

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9 AM ET Hurricane Milton [14L] pressure 918 mb and winds 155 mph (135 knots) \u2014 Category 4.

Waypoint indicator for landfall \u2014 25.3N 84.6W

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