{ "number": 405, "headline": "Oct 4, 2024 Friday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Gulf of Mexico could see powerful hurricane develop by early next week and impact Florida", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-10-04", "published": "2024-10-04T21:27:51.956000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Headlines for Friday

  1. Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie well out to sea. Kirk will affect UK/Europe in some capacity later next week. And, another wave following could become Nadine in ~1 week.

  2. Gulf of Mexico TS/Hurricane [Milton] looks likely according to afternoon model guidance with formation in the Western Gulf with landfall by Wednesday into central Florida. There is a wide range of intensity outcomes including major hurricane. Normally I wouldn\u2019t sound the alarm 5-days out, but the ensembles are highly certain about a named tropical system developing. NHC is at 50% chance of development.

Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

An area of low-level vorticity with contribution from the Eastern Pacific is strung out along the Mexico coastline in the Bay of Campeche. A broad mid-level circulation is apparent with a gyre that has remained stuck over Central America for the past 2-3 weeks.

Development of a low-pressure center will be slow and take 3-4 days. ECMWF 12z did develop a TD/TS by Sunday with only slow intensification. However, the Gulf waters are very warm and capable of any intensity hurricane in early October. This is a rare track for this time of year, too.

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By early Tuesday +90 Hours (ECMWF 12z) we see the model simulate a very large convective canopy over the low-level center. This looks quite ominous without any wind shear at this time. The environmental conditions aloft will become less favorable as to-be Milton reaches the Florida west coast. However, as we\u2019ve seen with Francine and Helene, the upper-levels seem to rearrange into a favorable configuration that enhances the hurricane rather than knock it down.

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By Wednesday morning (8 AM) there is a 979 mb hurricane on Florida\u2019s doorstep in the ECMWF 12z model. This is strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2. It\u2019s too soon to detail the landfall location or the intensity.

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ECMWF 12z Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT)

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The evolution of the Gulf of Mexico systems shows up well on IVT as the circulation takes over the western half of the basin.

Leslie seems to fall apart in 6-7 days as it reaches about 25\u00b0N latitude. Another wave off of Africa shows promise and would become Nadine.

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Atlantic GeoColor Satellite

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Beautiful simulated night time visible view of Category 4 hurricane Kirk and smaller TS Leslie.

Gulf of Mexico IR Satellite

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Only scattered convection across the Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. Expecting this to linger and eventually consolidate.

NHC 7-Day Outlook

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We\u2019re up to 50% within the Gulf of Mexico through 7-days. Kirk and Leslie are on their merry way in the open central Atlantic. One more area off Africa down the road (10%).

Hurricane Kirk

Kirk peaked at Category 4 but I think it blipped up to Cat 5 but just prior to the NHC advisory so perhaps the end-of-season analysis will upgrade it.

However, I think these situations could also be like NFL replay reviews: the call on the field stands.

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Tropical Storm Leslie

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ECMWF 12z Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Day 2.5: October 7 00z

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The ensembles start cooking by late Sunday evening.

Day 5: October 9 12z

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All aboard the train by Wednesday morning. Some along-track uncertainty with the landfall timing. There are many members at very high intensity \u2014> H3.

Spaghettios at Day 5

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Day 7: October 11 12z

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Day 15: October 19 12z | All Tracks

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NWS WPC | 7 Days Total Precipitation

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Major rainfall threat with the tropical system over Florida.

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Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie well out to sea. Kirk will affect UK/Europe in some capacity later next week. And, another wave following could become Nadine in ~1 week.

Gulf of Mexico TS/Hurricane [Milton] looks likely according to afternoon model guidance with formation in the Western Gulf with landfall by Wednesday into central Florida. There is a wide range of intensity outcomes including major hurricane. Normally I wouldn\u2019t sound the alarm 5-days out, but the ensembles are highly certain about a named tropical system developing. NHC is at 50% chance of development.

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