{ "number": 392, "headline": "Sept 17, 2024 Tuesday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Caribbean long-range threat increasing", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-09-18", "published": "2024-09-18T01:17:37.435000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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The no-name tropical storm [08L] almost entirely inundated North Carolina with very heavy rainfall totaling about 3 Trillion gallons in the past 48-72 hours. The rain shield did extend west into the Smoky Mountains \u2014 further west than anticipated \u2014 leaving a cloud shield over the Southeast and wedge into Atlanta this morning. Thankfully, that soggy pattern is departing for the next several days.

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NHC 7-day Outlook

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Down the road \u2014 we are looking at a low-chance (10-20%) of development in 7-days in the western Caribbean. That\u2019s the only show in town for tropical storms near land for the rest of September.

There is a tropical wave well out in the Atlantic behind the remnants of Gordon, but we might be ready to put a fork in the Cape Verde (non-) season \u2014 or maybe not!

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Atlantic Satellite

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Nothing percolating in the Atlantic \u2014 at all. 2024 is down bad!

Next 10-Days Atlantic Integrated Vapor Transport

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The Caribbean gyre sets up shop over the Yucatan peninsula for several days starting next week. We need to watch this cyclonic circulation for vorticity maxima and convection \u2014 over water \u2014 that can generate into a tropical cyclone. ECMWF HRES 12z did not develop a named storm through Day 10, but many ensembles most certainly did.

GFS 18z: Day 8

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I normally don\u2019t advertise or promote the NOAA GFS model because it has significantly lower skill than ECMWF, but it\u2019s worth pointing out consistency. In this model, the Caribbean gyre quickly spawns a hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico. Some solutions in previous runs really went ballistic, but thankfully, tempered down to management TS or H1.

Canadian GEM 12z: Day 8

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The Canadian GEM is a very good global model with better skill than GFS (trust me). It also generates a strong hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico at Day 8.

ECMWF AIFS 12z: Day 11

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As I\u2019ve mentioned over the past few days, the ECMWF AIFS has been sniffing out the Gulf of Mexico hurricane. This is an A.I. trained system so tropical storms formed as a result of large-scale patterns seem to be rather predictable. I think we can be much more confident of this outcome if the Hurricane remains in the same location / timing in future forecasts made into Friday.

Next 10-day Upper Level Pattern | North America

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The system in the Caribbean forms in response to a ridge in the Gulf of Mexico.

A strong ridge develops over the Western U.S. for a significant pattern shift into the final days of September.

Low Temperatures on Wednesday

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Chilly in the Rockies \u2014 20s and 30s \u2014 typical of mid-September.

High Temperatures on Wednesday

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The 100s are almost entirely gone across the Lower 48. 90s in Texas and Florida = 54 million population.

ECMWF EPS Active Tracks

Day 7: September 24

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I\u2019m not holding much hope for Gordon\u2019s return to glory.

By Day 7, we should see the beginning of a system in the western Caribbean.

Day 10: September 26

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More members spawn a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Day 12: September 29

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Even at Day 12, we\u2019re still in \u201cwatch and see\u201d mode for potential development in the Gulf of Mexico. This is going to be a long road ahead to end September in the Atlantic tropics close to home.

Total Rainfall next 7-Days | NOAA WPC

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Heavy central plains rainfall this weekend. Also, South Florida up to 6-inches!

PRISM Temperature Anomaly September MTD

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Like to point out the temperature pattern over the past 2-weeks showing my electric bill savings in Atlanta.

EPS Weekly Temperature Anomaly

Week 1: September 17-23

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Week 2: September 24-30

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The ridge across the Western U.S. really goes strongly above normal.

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The no-name tropical storm [08L] almost entirely inundated North Carolina with very heavy rainfall totaling about 3 Trillion gallons in the past 48-72 hours. The rain shield did extend west into the Smoky Mountains \u2014 further west than anticipated \u2014 leaving a cloud shield over the Southeast and wedge into Atlanta this morning. Thankfully, that soggy pattern is departing for the next several days.

Down the road \u2014 we are looking at a low-chance (10-20%) of development in 7-days in the western Caribbean. That\u2019s the only show in town for tropical storms near land for the rest of September.

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