{ "number": 375, "headline": "August 23, 2024 Friday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Atlantic remains quiet for next 10-days", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-08-23", "published": "2024-08-23T18:42:17.484000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Atlantic Tropics are (still) a Ghost Town

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The tropical Atlantic is mostly quiet except for disturbed weather over the Bahamas drifting westward into Florida. A plume of African dust is coming off the continent at about 22\u00b0N latitude and spreading westward across the Atlantic tropics. Any tropical waves would need to be much further south in the deep tropics, but nothing doing.

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There is a tropical wave about midway across the tropical Atlantic, but it is not convectively active. The overall environment across the entire Atlantic is inhospitable to tropical storm genesis for several reasons. Of course, the ocean surface is plenty warm at least away from teh col

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Party

3 storms in the Eastern Pacific to watch during the next 7-8 days.

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Gilma is forecast by NHC to reach Category 4 (115-knots) at maximum intensity. The track will be WNW into / over cooler water in 7-8 days and it will fizzle. The developing La Nina presents a SST gradient at about 20\u00b0N across which a tropical system can\u2019t survive very long. That means Hawaii is mostly protected from the strongest hurricanes \u2014 greater than Category 1 \u2014 because waters are only 26.5\u00b0C.

However, Hawaii would be subject to heavy precipitation \u2014 orographically induced \u2014 more so than wind.

The system labeled as 91E will become a tropical storm in the next 24-48 hours, and either become Hector or Hone depending upon it crossing 140\u00b0W before being designated.

Next 10-day and 14-day ECMWF EPS Active Tracks

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Ghost town at Day 10 \u2014 September 2, 2024. Dead. Stick a fork in August.

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Count up 15/50 members at Day 14 = 30% chance of a development somewhere in the basin \u2014 largely focused north of the Greater Antilles to east of the Bahamas, but rapidly gaining latitude to Bermuda.

30% of members at Day 14 is a decent signal \u2014 and near climatology for early September. I would highlight the period from Sept 2-9 for Atlantic tropical storm development \u2014 mainly b/c something has to eventually develop, right?

ECMWF AIFS 06z | 10-day Upper Level Pattern

Another trough from Alaska into the Midwest by Day 10 = cooler signal to finally wipe out the extreme heat.

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Highs on Friday

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Lows on Saturday

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69 million at/above 90\u00b0F \u2014 losing more and more people.

Weather on Friday

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Heaviest rain on Thursday across the 4 corners. The trough/cold front moves into northern California.

Weather on Saturday

Total Rainfall next 7-Days | NOAA WPC

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More rain for the Pacific Northwest including Seattle. Florida pretty wet as well.

EPS Weekly Temperature Anomaly

Week 1: August 23-29

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Week 2: August 30-September 5

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The upper-Midwest showing up as cooler than normal as a ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest \u2014 into early September.

Peak of Blazing Heat | Tuesday

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Pushing 102\u00b0F in Nashville. Almost 200-million at/above 90\u00b0F to remind everyone that summer is NOT over \u2014 yet.

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! I actually create all of my content from scratch.

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The tropical Atlantic is mostly quiet except for disturbed weather over the Bahamas drifting westward into Florida. A plume of African dust is coming off the continent at about 22\u00b0N latitude and spreading westward across the Atlantic tropics. Any tropical waves would need to be much further south in the deep tropics, but nothing doing.

There is a tropical wave about midway across the tropical Atlantic, but it is not convectively active. The overall environment across the entire Atlantic is inhospitable to tropical storm genesis for several reasons. Of course, the ocean surface is plenty warm at least away from teh col

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