{ "number": 362, "headline": "August 7, 2024 Wednesday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Atlantic tropics heating up again next week", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-08-08", "published": "2024-08-08T02:47:26.344000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Welcome to new readers & subscribers especially everyone renewing for Year 2 of Weather Trader.

Headlines for Wednesday

Apologies for the late post \u2014 traveling & couldn\u2019t get in front of a computer.

Debby to make landfall as a tropical storm early in the morning on Thursday in South Carolina. Heavy rain will move inland to Charlotte and then northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The last 7-days have already been very wet across the Northeast from thunderstorms associated with a frontal boundary or trough. So, adding another several inches could become unmanageable and lead to flooding.

A strong tropical wave will arrive near the northern Caribbean or SW Atlantic in the next 7-days. This will be watched closely to become a powerful hurricane. There is strong (ensemble) model support.

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Debby will weaken to a tropical depression and become post-tropical on Friday. The storm will accelerate to the NNE and get out of New England later on Saturday to salvage the weekend!

Weather Trader is a reader-supported daily weather update w/3000 readers. To receive new posts and support my research and development, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber [$5/month]

IR Satellite imagery | 10 PM ET

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NHC does not have any areas of interest aside from Debby. The tropical wave in the central Atlantic will be monitored, and a monster coming off Africa in 36-hours looks to be a prime candidates for development.

HRRR 00z | 48 hour model radar simulation

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The shield of rain from Debby takes on a more baroclinic leaf appearance as it becomes extratropical. Thankfully Debby will move quickly and limit the most extreme rainfall totals.

NWS Precipitation Analysis

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This 3-day accumulation analysis includes from Sunday morning until Wednesday morning. Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina all have areas of 12-15\u201d. More will be added in the next 2-days up the Eastern Seaboard.

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The last 30-days [anomaly] have been very wet in a few locations including eastern Texas with Beryl and the Southeast with Debby. Elsewhere, the brown in the Plains equals a significant deficit or dryness. Overall, the Lower 48 is about 1/2 inch above normal for the last 30-days.

Arctic Canada Heat Wave

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Quick note on mid-90s in far northern Arctic Canada. Even at high latitudes above the Arctic Circle, extreme heat can readily occur with the right weather pattern.

NOAA WPC 7-Day Rainfall Forecast

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ECMWF HRES Integrated Vapor Transport [IVT]

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My favorite parameter (IVT) shows the evolution of the tropics in the Atlantic. ECMWF HRES 12z shows a tropical wave becoming a hurricane in 8-days and the curving northward away from the USA. That\u2019s just one solution.

Ensembles | Tropical Storm and Hurricane Tracks

Note: these are trajectories from 51 different solutions of a weather model. Of course there will not be dozens of hurricanes all at once, but think of these like spaghetti.

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Day 8 (above) and Day 10 (below) Active Cyclones become lit up in the Bahamas.

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Then, at Day 12, the rubber meets the road with mostly solutions avoiding the East Coast.

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However, at Day 15, there are still many members with uncomfortably close solutions to land. Curiously, there is one that develops a 903 mb Category 5 in the Gulf of Mexico. We\u2019ll just ignore that!

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The ECMWF AIFS (Artificial Intelligence) model at 18z showed the development of the tropical wave by next Wednesday.

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Thank you to Subscribers and Supporters!

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! I actually create all of my content from scratch.

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Headlines for Wednesday

Apologies for the late post \u2014 traveling & couldn\u2019t get in front of a computer.

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