{ "number": 326, "headline": "June 28, 2024 Tropical Update: Waiting on Tropical Depression 02L", "standfirst": "Likely hurricane by early next week in the Caribbean", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-06-28", "published": "2024-06-28T17:17:25.620000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Waiting on advisory initiation for TD 02L or TS Beryl in the low-latitude, central tropical Atlantic. Forecasts suggest hurricane strength by early next week as it reaches the southern Lesser Antilles.

U.S. threat? Too soon to completely foreclose the possibility of 95L (Beryl) reaching the Gulf of Mexico, and threading the needle between the Yucatan and Cuba w/o getting shredded by the terrain of Hispaniola. 

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95)\n\nA low pressure system located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better defined.  Showers and thunderstorms are also showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form later today or on Saturday. This system is expected to move W at 15 to 20 mph and approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend. \n\nInterests there should monitor the progress of this system.  For more information, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.\n\n* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.\n* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
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The wave [Invest 94L] over the Yucatan has a 30% chance of further development mainly in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, the wave following Invest 95L \u2014 presumably 96L later this weekend \u2014 currently at 20% chance in 7-days, but global models suggest genesis success on a similar track as 95L (Beryl)

Ensemble Tracks Day 3, 6, and 10

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ECMWF 8-day Integrated Vapor Transport Forecast

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My favorite animation to show the evolution of tropical features including tropical waves. ECMWF HRES races Invest 95L to the west through the Caribbean at a more southerly track with minimum system pressure 982 mb during its lifecycle \u2014 which could be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane \u2014 with eventual disposition into Central America.

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ECMWF AIFS (06z) is on top of HRES (00z) \u2014 and awaiting 12z.

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GFS 12z: is more intense with Beryl \u2014 and perhaps feels the ridge less allowing a more northerly track.

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Basin Wide Visible Satellite Imagery

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Saharan Dust Layer Forecast | 10 Days

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The African dust in the Saharan Dust Layer is not particularly thick but is present across the tropical Atlantic, as seen in GeoColor satellite imagery behind Invest 95L. The dust should not be a major inhibiting factor on the tropical waves (95L & 96L) because of the low latitude.

Ocean Surface Temperatures

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Plenty warm 28\u00b0C+ along the path of Invest 95L into the Caribbean for a major hurricane, if the system so decides to maximize its potential.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

No activity expected in the next 48-hours or 7-days, or who knows how long \u2014 but the rest of June looks quiet.

Western Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

No development expected in the next 48-hours to 7-days

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Waiting on advisory initiation for TD 02L or TS Beryl in the low-latitude, central tropical Atlantic. Forecasts suggest hurricane strength by early next week as it reaches the southern Lesser Antilles.

U.S. threat? Too soon to completely foreclose the possibility of 95L (Beryl) reaching the Gulf of Mexico, and threading the needle between the Yucatan and Cuba w/o getting shredded by the terrain of Hispaniola.

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