{ "number": 294, "headline": "May 29, 2024 Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Tropical wave has sputtered out", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-05-29", "published": "2024-05-29T20:52:54.585000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Convection with a tropical wave in the central Main Development Region (MDR) has sputtered as dry/sinking/stable air combined with African Dust Layers.

Atlantic Basin Tropical Weather Outlook

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No other areas of interest across the Atlantic tropics as we reach the beginning of the 2024 Hurricane Season.

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African Dust | Saharan Air Layer (SAL)

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NASA\u2019s global weather model (based upon GFS) contains a coupled-aerosol component that diagnoses and forecasts the evolution of African dust / Saharan Air Layers (SAL).

One such SAL layer is emerging off the African coast and heading westward. However, this is not a particularly intense event \u2014 which pick up in June and July.

SAL events can put a lid on tropical storm development but strong tropical waves have a large enough and isolated environment that simply expunges/wipes out the convective inhibition.

10-Day Precipitable Water Anomaly Forecast

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This is the \u201cnormalized anomaly\u201d of precipitable water (my favorite variable) taking into account climatology (30-years) and calculating deviations from the historical mean. This allows easy tracking of extreme features like the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic. The dry air with the late-season cold front is highlighted by this weekend.

Potential Subtropical Development?

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There will be an interesting subtropical cyclone development at 35\u00b0N latitude by Sat/Sun that could meet the criteria for a named subtropical system.

Check out the cold front dipping into the Bahamas with cooler, very dry air.

Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

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Actual SSTs of 26\u00b0C are typically required for significant hurricane development in the Atlantic tropics unless there is an upper-level feature or trough to assist by cooling the tropopause.

Easy to see a large area or \u201cwarm pool\u201d of 28\u00b0C SSTs extending from the coast of Africa through the MDR into the Caribbean. We are not even to June and this looks like a late July or early August ocean temperature profile.

15-Day | Atlantic EPS Cyclone Tracks

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

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No areas of development in the EPAC over the next 7-days from the NHC tropical weather outlook. However, the EPS cyclone tracks do register a few low pressure areas, but nothing imminent.

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Western Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

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Tropical Storm Ewiniar [01W] is accelerating out to see off the coast of Japan. The system has maintained convection near the core but winds have decreased to 55-knots. No other areas of invest or development in the next several days.

ECMWF HRES 10-Day Storm Tracks

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ECMWF AIFS 15-Day Storm Tracks

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Thank you to Subscribers and Supporters! Welcome to May 2024 \u2014 countdown to hurricane season in 3-days.

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Convection with a tropical wave in the central Main Development Region (MDR) has sputtered as dry/sinking/stable air combined with African Dust Layers.

No other areas of interest across the Atlantic tropics as we reach the beginning of the 2024 Hurricane Season.

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