{ "number": 264, "headline": "April 15, 2024 Large Hail in Plains", "standfirst": "End of month heat builds across central U.S. heading into May", "desk": "record", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-04-15", "published": "2024-04-15T11:31:15.934000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "

\"\"

Weather Trader Programming note: switching to morning updates [~7 AM] for day ahead weather with evening cleanup for 12z model suites. Please subscribe in order to receive posts in your inbox. Weather Trader is entirely a subscriber-supported newsletter with > 2,000 active readers. To receive new posts and support work and development, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber [20% off].

Weather Trader is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid [$4/month] subscriber.

Get 20% off forever

Severe weather threat across Plains with \u201cEnhanced\u201d risk over Nebraska for mainly large hail. SPC also has a slight risk for coastal Virginia but thunderstorms could also impact D.C. later this afternoon with heavy rain and gusty winds and some hail.

\"\"
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to\n   central Great Plains, mainly this evening and into tonight. Large to\n   very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are\n   possible.
\"\"

Monday High Temperatures

\"\"

Another very warm Spring day across much of the Lower 48 population-wise with 230 Million at/above 70\u00b0F and 127 Million hitting at least 80\u00b0F including Indianapolis, Cincy, DC. and maybe 90\u00b0F in the Carolinas.

Cooler than normal across California continues on Sunday with 60s along the coast and Central Valley.

Monday Morning Temperatures 6:30 AM ET

\"\"

Mild this morning south of a warm front stretching into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic with 60s in St. Louis, Indy, and D.C. Only in the 40s in California.

Next 18-Hours Weather | Simulated Radar

\"\"

HRRR shows the development of severe thunderstorms later this evening across the central Plains with overall cell movement from south to north.

The upper-level Low is easy to see spinning over Utah and Wyoming with still plenty of cold air available for snowfall in the mountains.

\"\"

Storms develop in the D.C. area this afternoon and then intensify moving into Virginia Beach.

Monday Weather

\"\"

The area of low pressure developing in the Plains will deepen to about 989 mb over Nebraska by Tuesday morning.

\"\"

Next 66-Hours Precipitation | NWS NDFD

\"\"

Beneficial rainfall from the Plains storm: 1-2\u201d+ centered upon Iowa.

Next 7-Days Weather Systems

\"\"

The upper-level low and surface storm take a while to move into the Great Lakes and finally exit the Lower 48 by Thursday. The tail end of a frontal boundary into next weekend will provide the next rain threat for Texas into the Southeast.

WPC 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

\"\"

The next rainfall event shows up in the 7-day WPC forecast over Texas and Oklahoma with 1-2\u201d totals.

Agriculture | 15-Day Precip Percentiles and Probability

Get 20% off forever

\"\"

Like the snowfall percentile maps I showed during the winter, we can sort the ensembles to create total precipitation (rainfall) percentiles \u2014 including the median amounts for the next 2-weeks. The red color on the map is 2-inches+ and covers the area east of the Rockies. I tend to not emphasize the precipitation anomaly maps as it can exaggerate both surplus and deficits when the overall \u201cnormal\u201d amounts are relatively small during a 2-week period in mid-to-late April.

\"\"

Probability of at least 2-inches of rainfall for the next 2-weeks looks healthy/high over the corn belt!

ECMWF Ensemble | 5-Day Temperature Anomaly

Next 5-Days From April 15-19

\"\"

The next 5-days remain quite warm > 10\u00b0F above normal centered on the Ohio Valley. This map is a \u201cdegree day method\u201d calculation using TMAX and TMIN vs. climatology.

Days 6-10 From April 20-24

\"\"

Cooler weather for Days 6-10 across the Mississippi River valley and Midwest. Warmth builds across the Great Basin.

Days 11-15 From April 25-29

\"\"

Ensembles show a strong \u201cwarmth\u201d signal for the last week of April!

Subscribe now

Thank you to Subscribers and Supporters! Almost the growing season \u2014 so much is going on in the world of weather!

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! I actually create all of my content from scratch.

Weather Trader is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Severe weather threat across Plains with \u201cEnhanced\u201d risk over Nebraska for mainly large hail. SPC also has a slight risk for coastal Virginia but thunderstorms could also impact D.C. later this afternoon with heavy rain and gusty winds and some hail.

Another very warm Spring day across much of the Lower 48 population-wise with 230 Million at/above 70\u00b0F and 127 Million hitting at least 80\u00b0F including Indianapolis, Cincy, DC. and maybe 90\u00b0F in the Carolinas.

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:16Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/april-15-2024-large-hail-in-plains" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "143596923.april-15-2024-large-hail-in-plains", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/april-15-2024-large-hail-in-plains", "slug": "april-15-2024-large-hail-in-plains", "path": "/mp/264/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/264/", "desk_label": "The Record", "digest": "408066e72cdc0b11d6d16f8e5d3c54471abf93d9d42ca0a93685a8019d8b9079" }