{ "number": 228, "headline": "March 4, 2024 Eastern Deluge", "standfirst": "Excessive rain from Southeast to New England", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-03-05", "published": "2024-03-05T01:07:14.623000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Weather Trader Update | Monday

Weather story for the coming week will be heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast, into the Southeast and then up the Eastern Seaboard into New England.

Widespread 3-4\u201d or more of rainfall likely through the next 7-days from two storm systems. It no longer looks like either will provide snow accumulations for the coastal New England cities, but perhaps inland there could be significant snowfall this weekend.

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Tuesday High Temperatures | March 5, 2024

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Temperatures remain very mild across the Ohio Valley into Tuesday with 70s to Buffalo. Cooler behind the front, but the coldest Arctic air remains across the upper-Midwest and Canadian Prairies.

Next 8-Days Weather | ECMWF 12z HRES

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2 major storm systems for Wed-Thurs and Sat-Sun sweeping from the Gulf Coast to New England.

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Sunday and Monday \u2014 the storm system over the Northeast seems to be on a track that keeps the warm, marine air over the Big Cities. However, still enough cold air on March 11th for snowfall over interior New England.

The probability for snowfall in Boston plummeted to 5% for 3\u201d+

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The most impactful weather will be flooding / excessive rain first for the Gulf Coast and Southeast and then up into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

7-Day NWS WPC Rainfall

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Yellow is 1-inch+ of rainfall so that covers every state east of the Mississippi through 7-days.

Red is 2-4\u201d with locally more up to 6-7\u201d around Atlanta. Yikes!

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3-5\u201d of rainfall from D.C. to Philly, and New York City, and Boston.

Winter Weather Chances in the Northeast

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Looking through the next 15-days until March 19th: Good chance of significant snow over Maine, but we might need to put a cork in winter for Chicago, Cleveland, D.C. NYC and Boston.

The Western U.S. will continue to build snowpack with significant mountain accumulations continuing for another 2-weeks at least!

AIFS ECMWF | Artificial Intelligence Inference

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The 10-day precipitation totals from ECMWF-AIFS look quite similar to a conventional weather model \u2014 hard to tell otherwise. This is a very wet pattern \u2014 which matches up well to the precipitable water animation shown at the top.

Early Sunday AIFS

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ECMWF-AIFS gave up on the blizzard for Boston \u2014 not surprising. This model is not perfect, either. That\u2019s why ECMWF is developing an ensemble system using the AIFS!

Hopefully we get the data from that system as well!

You can view the AIFS-ECMWF as well as the other 4 A.I. models here at Climate Atlas:

A.I. Weather Models

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Overall Warmth Continues into Mid-March

ECMWF Ensemble Temperature Anomaly

Week 1 | Next 7-Days | March 4 - March 10, 2024

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Week 2 | March 11 - March 17, 2024

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Using the degree day methodology on the recent ECMWF ensembles, widespread warmth continues across the Eastern U.S. over the next week and then takes over Canada in Week 2.

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Thank you to Subscribers and Supporters! Welcome to March 2024 \u2014 so much is going on in the world of weather! Please come along for the ride!

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Weather Trader Update | Monday

Weather story for the coming week will be heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast, into the Southeast and then up the Eastern Seaboard into New England.

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