{ "number": 224, "headline": "February 28, 2024 Cold Front Blasts Eastern US", "standfirst": "ECMWF AIFS data now available", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-02-28", "published": "2024-02-28T23:42:03.078000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Wednesday Update

ECMWF has launched their Artificial Intelligence version of IFS called AIFS today with 15-day forecasts available 4x per day initialized off the IFS analysis. This is a HUGE day for weather modeling as we will have free and open-access to the best A.I. trained model data.

The ECMWF AIFS is currently trained on the ERA5 reanalysis using a similar technique to the Google Deep Mind GraphCast, but in the recent weeks/months, the configuration has evolved to a new type of transformer.

In a blog update, they show the improved skill scores over GraphCast. I will be collecting the data to perform verification and provide products to the public including incorporation into the Clusters at Weather Trader.

Weather Trader is a reader-supported research and forecasting publication. To receive new posts via email and support my development efforts, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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You can see the updated A.I. models here at https://climatlas.com/temperature/graph/ including Pangu, GraphCast, FourCastNet, FuXi, and now AIFS.

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I collected the forecast data and generated a quick 15-day animation of temperature anomaly through March 14th to show the continued warmth expected across the Lower 48 \u2014 in general \u2014 with brief waves or shots of colder Canadian air intermixed. However, when averaged across the 2-weeks, most definitely a \u201cmuch above normal\u201d signal.

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AIFS-ECMWF 12z | 15-Day Temperature Anomaly

Thursday Low Temperatures | February 29, 2024 | Leap Day

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Check out the extreme cold air bottled up across the Great Lakes and into Canada with lows in the -20s. However, that cold air is not crashing into the Lower 48 much further, instead to be replaced by much warmer southerly flow.

Thursday High Temperatures | February 29, 2024 | Leap Day

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Daytime temperatures moderate nicely on the final day of meteorological winter, but still chilly in the 40s in North Texas. However, zoom ahead to this weekend:

Next Weekend | Saturday and Sunday March 3-4, 2024

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Back to Spring across the Eastern U.S. with 70s back into the Midwest including Chicago. Let\u2019s assume the temperatures are underdone like this last Spring Fever and hopefully add 5\u00b0F to these numbers across the Great Lakes.

Weather Trader is a reader-supported publication and service. To receive new posts and support my work and research including A.I. modeling, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Extreme California Precipitation

Another 7-trillion gallons of rainfall (or equivalent snowfall) for California, and 4 Trillion for Oregon, and 2.5 Trillion for Washington during the next 7-days.

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Also, the Southeast remains wet with some sort-of-tropical systems snuck under a ridge.

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Note the direction of travel of the Lows off the West Coast dipping southward from the Gulf of Alaska. That is a cold air origin, of course, and is not the \u201cPineapple Express\u201d atmospheric rivers we are used to with El Nino.

This weekend, a system with plenty of Gulf moisture drenches the Southeast. However, another one shows up in 7-8 days on a similar track. We\u2019ll see if an out-of-season subtropical storm could form \u2014 it\u2019s possible.

As long as the southerly flow continues east of the Rockies, then winter goes back on hiatus \u2014 and we\u2019re running out of clock for strong winter storms. Instead, we change our focus to severe weather season.

Extending out 15-days | EPS Ensembles

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This map goes through the 14th of March, and there\u2019s a light gray color of ~0.1\u201d across the central U.S. from a brief chance of snowfall, but that is not impactful.

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The extreme snowfall over the next 3-days occurs across the Sierra > 11-feet.

Also, some significant Lake Effect snow continues behind the Arctic front before melting as temperatures warm back to Spring Fever levels.

More Ensemble Clustering Tools at Weather Trader

Leap year offer to upgrade to annual subscription. I\u2019m really hoping you\u2019ll stick around for the Spring and Summer, especially Hurricane Season!

Get 20% off forever

(Maps from weathermodels.com and weathertrader.com)

Thank you to my paying subscribers! Consider upgrading to a Yearly Plan if you find these updates valuable and wish to support my development at Weather Trader. As you can see, your support has paid dividends with considerable progress made to launching Weather Trader at full-tilt. There is still some work to do in the coming days/weeks. Also, it allows me to provide (usually) interesting and valuable commentary on scientific topics on X. Feel free to say hello and follow on X/Twitter (@RyanMaue)

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Wednesday Update

ECMWF has launched their Artificial Intelligence version of IFS called AIFS today with 15-day forecasts available 4x per day initialized off the IFS analysis. This is a HUGE day for weather modeling as we will have free and open-access to the best A.I. trained model data.

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